In 100 days and a few hours, the first polls will close and depending on closeness, good chance we will find out who will be president of the US for next four years. Below is a summary of where we are at and where things could go. Without question, if an election were held today, Biden would win. Real question is would Democrats win the senate or not and just how big the win would be. That being said they say a week in politics is an eternity so 100 days to go is a lifetime. That means Biden has a strong advantage, but Trump is not out yet. However, every day that passes and Biden maintains his lead, the worse the chances are for a Trump comeback.
Solid Blue states
For the following states, I am pretty much 100% positive Biden will win these. Yes maybe interesting to see how some swing counties vote, but the states mentioned as a whole won’t be competitive.
California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia Hawaii, Illinois, Maine 1st, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington state.
That is 188 electoral votes so still well short of what Biden needs to win
Likely Blue states
Colorado and Virginia. In those two states, I am close to certain Biden will win those. In 2000, these were solid red states, swing states by 2010, but now lean Democrat thanks to demographic shifts. Still if Sanders were candidate or if GOP had a more moderate leader like Kasich I believe these would be winneable. So while cannot see Trump gaining either, I don’t think these are lost permanently for GOP. This puts Biden at 210 electoral votes so still needs 60 more.
Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Unfortunately asides Michigan, not a lot of polling on others and while national polling leads me to believe Biden would hold the other four, I hope if things tighten more pollsters poll these lest we get a surprise like we did on blue wall states which were under polled in 2016. It would also mean picking up Michigan so puts Biden closer to White house, but still short. Nonetheless Trump would have to win just about every swing state to hold on in this case. This puts Biden at 248 electoral votes.
Leans blue at moment
For states below, Biden is around 5-6 points ahead so clearly the favourite but its close enough if things tighten, Trump may hold these. Still Trump cannot lose Florida at all while for others, he can only lose one and still win the White House.
Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
That would give Biden 318 electoral votes so more than enough to put him in the White house and end Trump nightmare.
North Carolina and Ohio as well as Maine 2nd and Nebraska 2nd. At this point Biden has a 2 point lead but both close enough I could see them going either way. Nevertheless Trump must hold both and a loss in either means a loss of the White House while for Biden he just needs to stay competitive here. Winning both would be nice, but as long as he doesn’t lose either by much, he can still win the white house. This is 359 Dem to 185 GOP so landslide territory
Georgia, Iowa, and Texas. At moment Trump has a very small lead in these but within margin of error thus any further leakage could flip these to Biden which would be catastrophic for Trump. This would be 413 to 125 so biggest Democrat landslide since LBJ one in 1964.
Very likely Trump
States below are ones if Biden retains a double digit lead, they could be in play. Despite that I don’t expect Biden to win any of these. But nonetheless a Trump win of only 5 or even 10 points in these would show he is in big trouble.
Alaska, Indiana Kansas, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina, Utah
This would be 458-80 electoral votes but as emotionally satisfying as this would be, I don’t see this happening. But if it did would probably mean GOP purges Trump element and radical changes in party
These states will be Trump wins and as Trump would say, it is going to be yuge. More interesting part here is in Oklahoma and West Virginia, does Trump sweep all counties again or not. For West Virginia I would say yes and if Biden wins any counties, most likely Kanawha county not the traditional coal ones in southern part of state. Oklahoma has been a GOP sweep since 2004 and last Democrat to win a single Oklahoma county was Al Gore in 2000. The southeastern part of state where they are traditionally strongest is now solidly Trump territory, but as midterms showed with Oklahoma 5, I do think there is a possibility Biden wins Oklahoma County. Unlike in past, urban vs. rural is far more prominent. Biden is unlikely to win back ancestral rural Democrat counties, but has potential to flip some traditionally GOP urban and suburban counties.
Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming,
So in summary with 100 days to go, Biden has strong advantage but Trump still has a path to winning. But as per earlier post suggests, he going to have to tighten things up and do it fast. I do think things will tighten as I doubt Biden will win popular vote by double digits (Obama in 2008 only won by 7 points), but unlike Clinton, Biden has a large enough cushion that he is clear favourite. Yes Clinton had leads as big as Biden in some polls, but unlike Biden far more variance and less consistency. More variance in polls suggests higher undecided so more unpredictability. Also most polls at this point in 2016 put Gary Johnson of Libertarian party at 8-10 points so real question mark is would Clinton win those or would Trump. Most supporting Johnson at this point were Never Trumper Republicans and it appears when push came to shove, most reluctantly voted for Trump. By contrast no serious third party this time.