Below are my predictions for 2021. Off course a lot of caveats as how the rollout of vaccine goes could play a big role and those who handle it well should benefit while those who botch it could be hurt badly, so a lot of this goes on idea of an average rollout.
Three provincial and/or territorial governments have scheduled elections this year while federally we have a minority that could fall at anytime. While always possible like Manitoba in 2019 or BC in 2020, one decides to go early, my guess is none do due to risks involved.
Newfoundland & Labrador: George Furey still in honeymoon phase and province has done quite well on COVID-19 front so he is re-elected with a majority so Liberal majority here.
Nova Scotia: Nova Scotia Liberals looked in big trouble a year ago, but thanks to strong handling of COVID-19, I believe they will get re-elected so another Liberal majority.
Yukon: No polls here, but considering how well its done with COVID-19, my guess is Yukon Liberals are re-elected so another Liberal majority.
Federal: With a lot of hard choices ahead, my guess is Trudeau goes either in the spring or fall. With large deficits, he will either have to make cuts which will anger left flank or continue to run big deficits which could scare away centrist flank. At least with an election behind him, he can make tough choices early on and then recover towards end. Never mind this will probably be his last one anyways. So my guess is Fall election as by then most will be vaccinated and economy starting to bounce back. I am pretty confident Liberals will win most seats, but whether they get a majority or not almost a tossup, but my guess is Trudeau does get a very narrow majority. Tories are stuck in low 30s and win around 110 seats so hold most of what they hold now but make no head way. BQ and NDP get similar too while Greens lose 1 or 2 of their seats.
On the gubernatorial front, there are two elections this November which are New Jersey and Virginia. Consider how many people vote straight ticket and that these are both solid blue states, my guess is Democrats win both, but by somewhat tighter margins than 2017
For Georgia runoff in 4 days, that will be close, but I am going to guess GOP narrowly holds both. My reason for predicting this is biggest swings to Biden were in upper middle class suburbs with lots of college educated whites. That demographic is still fiscally conservative, just dislikes Trump. With Trump now gone but still fearful of the more left wing elements in the Democrats, enough will vote GOP as a check thus GOP narrowly wins both. About 98% vote same way as presidential election, but 2% crossover and with how close Georgia was; that is enough to put GOP over top on both.
Chile: Starting in Americas, Chile is most significant. Peru also having one, but no idea on how that will go. For Chile, my guess is left wins as Chile seems to have a history of flipping back and forth each election and then probably swings back right again in 2021.
Japan: Moving over to Asia, the Liberal Democratic Party led by Yoshihide Suga is re-elected which is no surprise as save 2009, Liberal Democratic Party has won pretty much every election in Japan since World war II
Israel: After their fourth election, Bibi wins this time and with the rise of more conservative parties, a more right wing coalition than in past is formed. Expect a much harder line on Palestine in order to wood harder right parties and thus more stable coalition.
Iceland: Moving over to Europe, Iceland holds election this year and centre-right Independence party as usual wins most votes and seats, but what type of coalition formed is anyone’s guess
Norway: Thanks to strong showing on COVID-19, centre-right Conservative Party blue bloc wins a historical third term supported by further right Progress party while other two centre-right parties fall below minimum threshold. Labour Party for first time in over a century fails to win the popular vote.
Germany: CDU/CSU for the first time not led by Merkel nonetheless wins and this time forms a coalition with the Greens much like in neighbouring Austria thus a Black-Green coalition.
Netherlands: VVD led by Mark Rutte win most seats and with parties on right doing well, probably some centre-right coalition but wouldn’t be surprised if one centre-left party joins as otherwise have to include a far right which they probably want to avoid.
London Mayoral: London mayoral will for first time have non-white leaders of both major parties. Sadiq Khan for Labour who was born to Pakistani parents and Shaun Bailey for Conservatives who was born to Jamaican parents so if elected would be first Black mayor of a major European city. Since Khan is fairly popular and London is nowadays a Labour stronghold, Sadiq Khan is re-elected as mayor.
Other European countries: Rest I haven’t followed enough and while possible a government like Spain or Italy could fall, at moment assuming none do but pretty sure at least one will fall for an early election, just don’t know which one.