As usual here are my 2022 predictions around the globe. Some countries that use PR may have early elections, but this one will only be on those who are scheduled for elections next year. With pandemic, I believe making predictions is even harder than normal. Voters are more fickle and as pandemic drags on, I expect divide between those worried about COVID-19 thus favouring restrictions and those fatigued and wanting to go back to normal will grow.
We have two provincial elections next year. Quebec is an easy one to predict, but Ontario could be a competitive race.
PCs led by Doug Ford win both the popular vote and most seats but fall just shy of a majority. Doug Ford introduces a throne speech and gets defeated on it. Steve Del Duca becomes premier and signs a supply and confidence agreement with NDP.
Francois Legault is re-elected with an even bigger majority, but not quite as big a landslide as some polls say. I am guessing between 80-90 seats while popular vote in mid 40s.
Alberta UCP leadership review
Kenney is forced to resign with just over 50% voting to dump him. Brian Jean wins leadership race and becomes next premier. He gets a weak honeymoon thus UCP narrowly regaining lead in polls, but by Fall of 2022, NDP regains their lead. If my prediction in polls turns out to be true, I will in a year’s time predict an NDP majority with Notley winning in 2023, but I am going to wait until January 1st of 2023 before making firm prediction here.
GOP retakes house with Democrats losing around 20-30 seats so not as big a drubbing as 2010 due to gerrymandering and greater polarization
GOP takes that 52-48. North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin only 3 Democrats have a shot at, but I predict GOP holds all three. Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and New Hampshire are vulnerable and GOP picks up two, Democrats hold two.
GOP gains 4 to 5 govenorships
Bolsonaro gets defeated and is one and done. Not particularly close, but Bolsonaro still has a large enough following to get in low 40s.
Socialist party wins again, but by much narrower margin. Question is do they rely on three parties to left of them to pass legislation or try to form a grand coalition with Social Democratic Party? Too early to tell.
German Regional elections
SPD comes in first in all four this year (Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein, Saarland, and North Rhine Westphalia) and coalitions formed a mixture of grand, red-green (where possible) and traffic light like nationally to in some.
Easy part is Macron comes in first in first round and makes second round. He could face Zemmour, LePen or Precesse. My guess is he faces Precesse of Les Republicains. Unlike other two where he would be heavily favoured to win, this will be a very tight race. My guess is he is re-elected but by less than 2% so very close.
For national assembly, it is a hung parliament, but Les Republicains win most seats but not a majority so get the prime-minister.
Right wing populist Slovenian Democratic party comes in first place, but current government fails to win a majority so like 2018, centre and left wing parties unite to form a coalition.
Labour is re-elected
Social Democrats win most seats but neither the Alliance for Sweden on centre-right or Red Bloc have a majority. Moderate party and Christian Democrats form a coalition and gain support from Sweden Democrats who are not part of coalition but promise to support it.
Orban narrowly wins against a united opposition
Democratic candidate is elected but by a much narrower margin than in 2017.
Marcos wins while for house and senate PDP-Laban which is party Duterte leads wins both.
Labor is successful this time in winning, but once again polls dramatically overestimate them it ends up being a 51-49 Labor win.