Alberta election

Now that Alberta election is over and results are in, here are my thoughts below on it. I was wrong on NDP winning and so I will admit that while my predictions were pretty good on last two federal elections, they are by no means perfect. I think with Smith being controversial it put too much emphasis on late breakers going NDP like did in other similar elections rather than taking polls at face value. Perhaps in a more polarized world, things have changed. Still even if I took polls at face value, Notley would have won since UCP won popular vote by 8.6% but if things tightened a mere 3%, Notley would be premier despite Smith winning popular vote. So if Abacus, Ekos, and Mainstreet were right, you would have like you did federally, UCP winning popular vote but NDP most seats. However that was not case although those polls were still within the margin of error. Janet Brown once again nailed it so should probably pay more attention to her polling company as seems they have best track record in Alberta.

In terms of results, this election shows like we are seeing throughout North America a growing rural vs. urban divide. UCP won big in rural areas while lost in Edmonton by 25 points and narrowly lost in Calgary. This suggests to me you have three areas and finding a way to bridge divide will be no easy task. Edmonton is centre to centre-left with core being very progressive and probably wishing NDP was more left wing while suburban parts more centrist thus why UCP got in high 30s thus plenty of votes, but unlike past non-conservatives coalesced around NDP ensuring a sweep. Calgary was very close and even the normally reliably south end saw NDP getting over 40% in most seats. In fact of the 26 seats in Calgary, in 25 NDP got over 40% so that is a solid base to work with and a few more extra points and they could easily dominate city and win. UCP came a lot closer to losing than many realize and while UCP won, this was not the landslide win we are used to seeing for parties on right in Alberta. Thus it is a strong warning party needs to watch out or could lose in 2027. Add to the fact the fastest growing ridings either went NDP or were narrow UCP wins suggesting long term NDP has reason to be optimistic despite loss. If one looks at where NDP was a decade ago and where they are now, they can be very proud of how far they have come. Yes disappointment for them they failed to win, but Alberta is not an easy province for non-conservatives to win.

Looking at raw votes, UCP actually didn’t drop much from 2019 and got close to what parties on right normally get. But reason election was much closer is third party support plummeted and virtually all of that went NDP. NDP essentially united non-conservatives under one banner so if NDP & Liberals ever merge federally, I suggest they have Rachel Notley as leader as she is probably only person in Canada who has successfully united the two. But also Smith being so extreme and controversial probably helped. So for Tories federally saying party needs to move right, one risk is left and centre coalesce under one banner and unlike Alberta, if that happens you lose federally. Also despite fact many claimed Red Tories defecting to NDP irrelevant, that is not true. It is true overall not many, but they were in the right places so had bigger impact than raw vote suggest. In Rural Alberta, it appears many who voted left in past have swung right including many 2015 NDP voters going UCP 2023 but since UCP already winning those, that does little good in seats. In Edmonton, UCP never popular so no surprise party held its 35% as was largely down to core. But in Calgary, party dropped 5% and swing there much larger than the rest of province so Notley’s focus on Calgary and appeal to business community and Red Tories was a smart move. Yes not enough to get over the line, but much closer. Fact is Alberta by nature is a conservative province so defeating a united right is always going to be a challenge. However, demographic changes suggest in time this may work in NDP’s favour if UCP doesn’t modernize to reflect modern Alberta.

Notley made right decision to stay on as reality like many parties, much of membership is more left wing and if she stepped down, good chance replacement would be far more left wing and similar to federal NDP thus ensuring party would return to being an Edmonton rump. The reason party came as close as they did is thanks to Notley so I absolutely believe despite disappointment, her staying on was right move. Alberta is by nature a conservative one so anyone representing a progressive party will face a steep uphill climb. But if there is one person who can get them over the top in right circumstances it is Rachel Notley. Now that Smith has won, I think focus should be on how she governs and with how strong Take Back Alberta is at constituency level, not sure replacement would be any better.

As for my thoughts, I was obviously disappointed and I do worry this will embolden those on right in other provinces to move further right when in fact if they drilled down on data, this should be seen as a strong warning to watch out. Still for Alberta and Canada’s sake, I do hope Smith governs well, but based on past fear she will not. I think economy will do fine under Smith, but I worry she will make our already polarized environment even worse and make believing in falsehoods and conspiracies more acceptable. My preference of Notley was not over economy since a premier who messes up there can have this fixed by future government. It was more on social divides as those are much harder to fix and can take years.

As for what this means on federal politics, I think it is a mix. I expect relations with federal government to be quite frosty and Smith’s craziness probably even helps Trudeau in BC and Ontario where he will be seen as the more sane person as Smith is no Lougheed and unlikely to win over rest of country. At least Notley wanting action on climate change, but slower due to economic cost probably could have won over support in the three larger provinces (BC, Ontario, and Quebec) who decide elections whereas Smith more likely to have opposite impact. In terms of Poilievre winning, many have said since wrong on Alberta, I will be proven wrong again federally. I still believe Poilievre will lose but like anything that is what I think is likely but at same time realize possibility but not likelihood he wins. If one looks at Alberta election, this is not good for Poilievre. Non-conservatives united and while in Alberta that is not quite enough, in rest of Canada that guarantees Tories will never win again if that happens as Conservative vote is usually in 50s or 60s in Alberta but nationally in 30s. Federal Tories only around 35% in polls which is enough to win with splits, but with how ideological Poilievre is and how much he will anger left, good chance you see much of the 65% not supporting him unite behind one party as we get closer to election. Not only that, the so called Red Tories who many claim no longer exist may be small in numbers sadly, but they are overwhelmingly in the right places. The types who want a further right party are mostly in safe rural ridings where party winning anyways while your downtown urban core which will never vote Conservative mostly have your left wing types who would never vote conservative. But your centrist types are disproportionately found in places like 905 belt, Atlantic Canada, and Lower Mainland suburbs and if they swing against party as I suspect they will, they lose. We saw this in Alberta where in Edmonton UCP was already at floor while in rural Alberta won big, but in Calgary swing against UCP was much larger than in rest of province. And with Poilievre I could see same thing where he eats up the PPC vote so gets a higher popular vote share than O’Toole did but a combination of a more united left and loss of centre to centre-right voters concentrated in key ridings results in him winning fewer seats. People need to realize its not just raw votes, its where those votes are located that matters. I said after US election that your Lincoln Project types only around 2% of electorate yet without them defecting to Democrats, Trump would still be president. So Red Tories/Blue Liberals may be less numerous than they were 20 years ago but they are not irrelevant as many in current party brasses wish they were.

Finally even if future is right being more ideological, it is not the path I want to go and I am not going to jump on board just because I dislike Trudeau. I believe their policies are wrongheaded and I believe what they are pushing will make Canada a more divided country. Fact is more Canadians lean left than right but before polarization most were close to centre. If people forced to pick a side, you will have a permanent left wing majority with an angry bitter right wing minority and much less social cohesion than you have now. I have always believed in politics that compromise and focusing on art of possible not on your ideals is way to go. And sadly too many in both parties have lost this and I believe it is to the detriment in our country.