Why Trump won and what Dems need to do

While not a huge surprise to me (although size of win was), Donald Trump has won and Democrats have had their worst showing since at least 2004. I will do a separate blog on what a Trump presidency means for US, world and Canada but this is understanding why I think transpired last night.

For all intensive purposes this was a disaster for Democrats. Florida which was not too long ago a swing state they lost by double digits while New Jersey a reliably blue one only won by 5 points and Illinois another reliably blue only by 8. Trump has won the popular vote for Republicans for first time in 20 years. I believe the loss can mainly come down to two issues which are inflation and immigration. Pretty much every group swung away from Democrats, just a question of by how much. Biggest swings were young males and Hispanic men who Trump won outright. Fact is younger voters and minorities who helped Obama win two terms didn’t vote Democrat in nearly the same margins and amongst males even went over to Republicans. Also fact most down ballot did somewhat better suggests to me Democrats probably would have lost no matter who they had at top of ticket, but if someone more centrist and more relatable could have made election closer.

Trump is a liar, racist, crook, misogynist and authoritarian wannabe but at end of day that didn’t seem to matter to most. Sadly I believe most people not just in US but globally willing to overlook flaws if a person shares their values or at least find them more acceptable than alternative. And US is a centre-right country and public is not interested in a left wing government. The policies that have helped Trudeau win three times are DOA in US and even moving in that direction just ensures you get result you did. Americans are fine with legal immigration but want controlled not open borders. They are not interested in the latest woke cause or DEI. Many are struggling and want one focused on pocket book issues not latest social justice cause. Also US was founded on idea anyone who works hard can do well so class warfare and going after rich may sell well in some places like Canada or Scotland where tall poppy syndrome runs strong but not in US where belief is anyone can make it big if have drive to do so. As such Democrats need to tell the AOCs, Sanders, Warrens and other leftist in parties to go or at least marginalize them. Even if more left wing, sometimes you cannot get what you want so need to focus on doable not ideal. And since US is a conservative country doable is centrist policies that help improve lives for average American. Likewise while Democrats placed strong bets on abortion bringing more women out, but they ignored their problem with men. Social change is a long winding road and when people struggling and have had enough its time to pause. Also the idea of demographics are destiny needs to be chucked into the rubbish bin. Younger generations may have voted for Obama but assuming Gen Z would be as liberal as millennials or millennials would remain liberal as they aged was a big mistake. Likewise Hispanics are a lot like Italian-Americans who once heavily voted Democrat but over time swung Republican. As more and more born in US and just see themselves as Americans, not surprising their votes will start to look more like white community.

I do believe there are also some other fundamental problems Democrats have. Many liberal elites tend to talk down to people and take attitude you are stupid for thinking differently and they know best. It may well be very true that is case, but no voter likes being talked down to and told you know better than them. As such you need to find a way to communicate on their terms. Yes voting for someone as awful as Trump may be reprehensible but bashing such people while may feel good momentarily doesn’t solve the issue. Yes at times I almost wonder if it would be better to limit voting only to the most educated but that is a whole different thing for another blog at some later date. Also Biden should have dropped out much earlier and they should have then had a full primary race. Harris almost certainly would have not won it and her flaws would have been exposed. Finally the biggest reason right is winning almost everywhere and left struggling is right is killing it on social media while left still relying on traditional media. To win you have to go to where people are seeing and hearing things today, not where they were 20 years ago. And with social media unfortunately doesn’t allow nuanced explanations, it favors simplistic slogans. Doesn’t mean Democrats should govern that way, just means use simplistic slogans to win election and provide the details on website which no one asides political junkies goes to anyways. Elections are won and lost mostly on vibes not detailed policies. Detailed policies only work with political junkies who are most likely firmly in one party or another.

Democrats can win midterms in 2026 although senate probably out of reach and can win back white house and senate in 2028. But do so they are going to have to make some big changes. Below are a few I suggest

1. Its economy stupid – That is how Clinton won in 1992 and they need to focus on that again which will likely get worse if Trump follows through on his tariffs.
2. Know where to play offense and defense. Things like expanding Obamacare, higher minimum wage, paid family leave are popular so highlight those while things like crime, immigration and taxes need to play defence which is we won’t make any drastic changes here.
3. Disassociate with further left. Cannot control those but make clear party wants nothing to do with them. When pro-Hamas camps at university campuses started last spring, I kind of feared this would cost Democrats
4. Reach out to rural areas like Obama did. Party won’t win rural counties but margins matter. If GOP gets blowout margins there, very tough to win, but if it is say a 60-40 instead of 75-25 split then Democrats can win with suburbs and urban areas
5. Attack hard on actual Republican plans and avoid over the top fearmongering. While all the fearmongering about Trump may be Trump, its been used too many times with other Republicans so like boy who cried wolf people no longer listening.

Tomorrow or day after will write on what Trump will mean for US, Canada and World and also what this means if anything for next Canadian election.