State elections tonight

Just a quick note that Virginia and New Jersey will be having state elections today. New Jersey currently has a Republican governor and Virginia a Democrat. Both are term limited so neither is running for re-election. New Jersey looks like it will flip to the Democrats meaning they will have 16 instead of 15 governor mansions provided they hold Virginia. Virginia is a much tighter race with a very narrow lead for the Democrats, but the GOP definitely could flip it in their favour. My prediction is Democrats win both, but I would not be surprised if the Republicans pick up Virginia.

UPDATE: Democrats won both and in the case of Virginia it was by almost 9 points so not even that close. Definitely a good night for the Democrats and will be a huge morale booster in what has been nothing but bad news for the past few years. The GOP in both states got roughly the same percentage of support as Trump got although the Democrats did a bit better as fewer voted for third parties so this suggest Trump’s base is holding up well, but beyond that he is fairly toxic which could be bad news next year in midterms. The Democrat governor elect Ralph Northam of Virginia is also a moderate and in fact voted for George W. Bush both times so this should debunk the idea the party needs someone on its left wing to win. Centrist can win too if the party is united which with Trump is easy to do, but may be problematic once he is gone. If anything the Democrats should try to choose people suited to where they are running in midterms and the same goes with the GOP so in some cases that will mean more moderate types and in other more left wing. For the GOP, same thing, some cases a staunch conservative makes sense, but it some places a more moderate makes sense.

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