2019 Political predictions

Okay as promised, here are my predictions for 2019.  Below I will first give what I think will happen and then second what I want to happen.  Looking at the past year, I did alright getting some right, some wrong and I suspect the same will happen here, so here we go.

Provincial Politics in Canada

British Columbia: NDP hold the Nanaimo by-election albeit by a tighter margin.  Despite the defeat of PR, the Greens do not defeat the government on the budget so Horgan is still premier in a year’s time.  As much as I prefer the BC Liberals, I think an election this year would just benefit the NDP.  I think the BC Liberal’s 16 year stint is too fresh in people’s minds and the NDP hasn’t had a monumental screw up yet (I think whenever the next recession comes is when their poll numbers will go south).

Alberta:  Easy prediction is UCP wins and Jason Kenney becomes the next premier, but I believe it will be a lot more competitive than most think.  Mark Milke who is from the Fraser Institute and Canadian Taxpayer’s Federation is writing the campaign platform so it will double down on supply side economics which was popular in the 90s, but out of style today and his promise of big tax cuts for the rich, but spending cuts for everyone else will give Notley a lifeline.  My prediction is NDP gets at least 25 seats and at least 33% of the popular vote.  UCP gets under 50% and fewer than 60 seats.  Nonetheless with more than 50% of Albertans being right leaning, uniting the left and centre is not sufficient for Notley, she needs to win over some who normally vote conservative and this is what will prevent her from winning re-election.  My hope is a UCP minority with the Alberta Party holding the balance of power.  This will force whomever they prop up to move closer to the centre.

Ontario: While no election, I predict one or two PC MPPs will cross the floor to the Liberals.  With the official party status moving up to 12 seats, Wynne resigns her seat and a by-election is held which the Liberals easily hold.

Quebec: After the massive defeat of PR in BC and opposition within his own caucus, Legault much like Trudeau breaks his promise on PR.  This is also what I hope too.

New Brunswick: Unlike BC this one is more likely to fall, still my prediction is the PCs led by Blaine Higgs make it through the year.  This is off course what I want too.

PEI: A minority government of some type and much like the drama in BC and New Brunswick, it takes weeks before we find out whom the next premier is.  Greens or Liberals likely win most seats, but with both Liberals and PCs being centrist unlike federally, I could see the Greens allying with either, its not obvious like at the federal level they would go with the Liberals.  My hope is a PC majority, but doesn’t look likely at the moment.

Newfoundland & Labrador: Liberals led by Dwight Ball are re-elected but with a greatly reduced majority.  The PCs led by Ches Crosbie dramatically increase their seat count, but still fall a bit short.  My hope is a narrow PC majority which I think while not likely is possible.

Federal

In short I predict another Liberal majority with Liberals getting around 37-38% of the popular vote, losing around 30 seats in English Canada but offsetting this by gaining around 20 in Quebec thus a slightly weaker majority.  Tories under Scheer make modest gains getting around 33-34% of the popular vote and 120-130 seats but despite the close vote total, much of those votes are wasted ones as they really run up the margins in Alberta and Saskatchewan where they already hold most of the seats.  Singh loses Burnaby South and is forced to resign as leader.  Nathan Cullen becomes the next NDP leader and is able to hold onto their seats in English Canada, but loses most in Quebec so ends up with around 30-35 seats in the end.  For by-elections, Outremont and Burnaby South are both Liberal pick-ups, while the Tories hold York-Simcoe.  If one is held in Brampton East and St. Leonard-St. Michel they stay Liberal and likewise if one is held in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, it stays NDP.  The Greens pick up a seat or two so Elizabeth May is no longer the sole MP, most likely in Southern Vancouver Island.  Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party flops only getting 2% of the popular vote and he even loses his own riding.  My hope is the Tories win exactly 170 seats.  This gets rid of Trudeau and avoids having him move further left to placate the NDP, but keeps the Tories on a tight leash since any loss in a by-election or defection costs them their majority so this acts as a check against them going too much to the right.  Hopefully the next Liberal leader is more centrist too, but again I think this is extremely optimistic and unlikely. By region, here are mine

Atlantic Canada: Stays mostly Liberal, but not a sweep again with the Tories winning back a few Anglophone seats in New Brunswick.

Quebec: Liberals win around 60 seats, Tories get more or less about the same, NDP loses most of their seats, but not all, BQ also loses all but one.

Ontario: Liberals win a reduced majority getting between 60-70 seats.  They lose almost all their rural Southern Ontario ridings, but hold most of the 905 belt but lose a few on the periphery.  Tories gain around 15 seats getting around 45-50 seats overall.  NDP actually gains a few seats in Northern Ontario and downtown Toronto getting around 10-12 seats, but loses Essex to the Tories.

Sask/Manitoba: Goes mostly Tory but few seat changes as Tory gains in votes are mostly in the rural areas which they already hold, the Tories nonetheless do win one or two seats in Winnipeg after being shut out last time.  Liberals hold most, but not all in Winnipeg, while Ralph Goodale is once again the lone Liberal MP from Saskatchewan (if he retires change this to a shutout).  NDP gains votes in Manitoba as no longer held back by the wildly unpopular provincial NDP government they had in 2015, while in Saskatchewan holds 2 of the 3 seats they have.  Tories beat Liberals in votes in Manitoba, only province they pick up over 2015, while Saskatchewan and Alberta are the only two they get over 50%.

Alberta: Tories win all but one seat, while NDP holds Edmonton-Strathcona thanks to Rachel Notley’s help as unlike in other parts of the province, she is wildly popular there.  I could even see her running here.

British Columbia: A three way split but Liberals slightly in front, but Tories gain seats thanks to strong vote splits even though they only get about 1/3 of the popular vote.  NDP only loses a few, but holds most.  Greens gain one or two south of Nanaimo on the Island.   Vancouver Island goes mostly NDP.  Lower Mainland goes mostly Liberal, but NDP holds onto a few, while Tories pick up around 2-3 out towards the Valley.  Interior goes mostly Tory, although Nathan Cullen wins his seat and perhaps a few other non-Tories.

Territories: Tough to say, but unless NDP or Tories recruit a star candidate, I predict another Liberal sweep here.

International

United States: GOP wins all three gubernatorial races which as Mississippi, Kentucky, and Louisiana which are all deep red states to begin with.  Trump is not impeached or doesn’t resign despite more damning evidence as the party is to afraid to take him on.  I believe he is more likely to die of a heartattack than resign or be impeached, so prediction Trump is still president in a year’s time.  Democratic field has 3 to 5 serious contenders emerging but no clear frontrunner.  John Kasich announces his intention to challenge Trump in the GOP primary.

Brazil: Bolsonaro is very divisive and worse than expected plunging the country into instability with frequent riots and demonstrations.

Argentina: The left due to hyperinflation retakes power.

Uruguay: Tight election but following trends in Latin America, right narrowly wins.

Bolivia: Evo Morales is re-elected with a reduced majority.  Much criticism that election was rigged.

Denmark: Despite most polls showing the Red Bloc ahead, the Blue Bloc wins again as governing parties for whatever reason always tend to poll lower.

Sweden: Lofven loses a confidence vote in January resulting in snap elections.  Red Bloc gains but still falls short of a majority.  Moderates try to form a coalition that will include the Sweden Democrats, but Centre Party and Liberals refuse to join a Sweden Democrat supported one, so the Social Democrats remain in power backed by the other left wing parties + Centre Party and Liberals

Finland: The governing Centre party is defeated.  Either the National Rally or Social Democratic Party comes in first and one of those two leads a grand coalition

EU elections: Right wing populist parties make gains as well as En Marche joins the ALDE resulting in big gains for them.  S & D drops even further while Greens make gains.

Belgium: A mess as usual and takes at least 200 days to form government.  NVA wins most seats but after pulling the plug on the government over the UN compact on migration, they are excluded from the coalition while Greens for the first time included.  Whom the PM is and what party is tough to say, but my guess is it will be a Dutch speaking one.

UK: Britain leaves with no deal which helps throw Europe into a recession.  Despite its harm on the economy, there are no food shortages or chaos as some predict.  May continues to face issues but manages to survive as PM and no election.  She continues to remain competitive in polls thanks to the unpopularity of Jeremy Corbyn.

Portugal: The Socialists are re-elected being one of the few bright spots for social democracy in Europe

Spain: Budget fails and elections are called. PSOE + Podemos fail to gain a majority, but neither do the Popular Party + Citizens Party although if the far right Vox is included they would have a majority.  Popular Party wants to form this but Citizens party makes clear they will not form any coalition that includes either Vox or Podemos.  As such no government is in place come December 31, 2019.

Greece: New Democracy ousts SYRIZA but falls short of a majority.  Negotiations still ongoing by year’s end.

Poland: The right wing populists Law & Justice is one again re-elected with a majority

Israel: Bibi once again despite scandals comes in first.  Left gets a trouncing and once again further right parties join Likud to form government.

India: Modi is re-elected with his NDA alliance winning another majority although somewhat reduced.

Indonesia: Joko Widido’s PDI-P is re-elected in a landslide.

Philippines: Duterte’s PDP party makes gains in both house and senate elections (he is not up for re-election).

Australia: Labor Party led by Bill Shorten wins, but just barely not by 8-10 points as polls suggest as his personal unpopularity hurts the party so final results show him winning by only a point.  Takes around a month due to counting second choices and recounts before we know he becomes PM.

South Africa: ANC is re-elected but with a reduced majority.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s