100 days until US election

In 100 days and a few hours, the first polls will close and depending on closeness, good chance we will find out who will be president of the US for next four years.  Below is a summary of where we are at and where things could go.  Without question, if an election were held today, Biden would win.  Real question is would Democrats win the senate or not and just how big the win would be.  That being said they say a week in politics is an eternity so 100 days to go is a lifetime.  That means Biden has a strong advantage, but Trump is not out yet.  However, every day that passes and Biden maintains his lead, the worse the chances are for a Trump comeback.

Solid Blue states

For the following states, I am pretty much 100% positive Biden will win these.  Yes maybe interesting to see how some swing counties vote, but the states mentioned as a whole won’t be competitive.

California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia Hawaii, Illinois, Maine 1st, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington state.

That is 188 electoral votes so still well short of what Biden needs to win

Likely Blue states

Colorado and Virginia.  In those two states, I am close to certain Biden will win those.  In 2000, these were solid red states, swing states by 2010, but now lean Democrat thanks to demographic shifts.  Still if Sanders were candidate or if GOP had a more moderate leader like Kasich I believe these would be winneable.  So while cannot see Trump gaining either, I don’t think these are lost permanently for GOP.  This puts Biden at 210 electoral votes so still needs 60 more.

Lean blue

Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire.  Unfortunately asides Michigan, not a lot of polling on others and while national polling leads me to believe Biden would hold the other four, I hope if things tighten more pollsters poll these lest we get a surprise like we did on blue wall states which were under polled in 2016.  It would also mean picking up Michigan so puts Biden closer to White house, but still short.  Nonetheless Trump would have to win just about every swing state to hold on in this case.  This puts Biden at 248 electoral votes.

Leans blue at moment

For states below, Biden is around 5-6 points ahead so clearly the favourite but its close enough if things tighten, Trump may hold these.  Still Trump cannot lose Florida at all while for others, he can only lose one and still win the White House.

Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin

That would give Biden 318 electoral votes so more than enough to put him in the White house and end Trump nightmare.

True tossups

North Carolina and Ohio as well as Maine 2nd and Nebraska 2nd.  At this point Biden has a 2 point lead but both close enough I could see them going either way.  Nevertheless Trump must hold both and a loss in either means a loss of the White House while for Biden he just needs to stay competitive here.  Winning both would be nice, but as long as he doesn’t lose either by much, he can still win the white house.  This is 359 Dem to 185 GOP so landslide territory

Tilt Trump

Georgia, Iowa, and Texas.  At moment Trump has a very small lead in these but within margin of error thus any further leakage could flip these to Biden which would be catastrophic for Trump.  This would be 413 to 125 so biggest Democrat landslide since LBJ one in 1964.

Very likely Trump

States below are ones if Biden retains a double digit lead, they could be in play.  Despite that I don’t expect Biden to win any of these.  But nonetheless a Trump win of only 5 or even 10 points in these would show he is in big trouble.

Alaska, Indiana Kansas, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina, Utah

This would be 458-80 electoral votes but as emotionally satisfying as this would be, I don’t see this happening.  But if it did would probably mean GOP purges Trump element and radical changes in party

Solid Trump

These states will be Trump wins and as Trump would say, it is going to be yuge.  More interesting part here is in Oklahoma and West Virginia, does Trump sweep all counties again or not.  For West Virginia I would say yes and if Biden wins any counties, most likely Kanawha county not the traditional coal ones in southern part of state.  Oklahoma has been a GOP sweep since 2004 and last Democrat to win a single Oklahoma county was Al Gore in 2000.  The southeastern part of state where they are traditionally strongest is now solidly Trump territory, but as midterms showed with Oklahoma 5, I do think there is a possibility Biden wins Oklahoma County.  Unlike in past, urban vs. rural is far more prominent.  Biden is unlikely to win back ancestral rural Democrat counties, but has potential to flip some traditionally GOP urban and suburban counties.

Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming,

So in summary with 100 days to go, Biden has strong advantage but Trump still has a path to winning.  But as per earlier post suggests, he going to have to tighten things up and do it fast.  I do think things will tighten as I doubt Biden will win popular vote by double digits (Obama in 2008 only won by 7 points), but unlike Clinton, Biden has a large enough cushion that he is clear favourite.  Yes Clinton had leads as big as Biden in some polls, but unlike Biden far more variance and less consistency.  More variance in polls suggests higher undecided so more unpredictability.  Also most polls at this point in 2016 put Gary Johnson of Libertarian party at 8-10 points so real question mark is would Clinton win those or would Trump.  Most supporting Johnson at this point were Never Trumper Republicans and it appears when push came to shove, most reluctantly voted for Trump.  By contrast no serious third party this time.

6 thoughts on “100 days until US election

  1. I think the 400 EV landslide scenario is possible now for biden in November. I think he has a good chance of replicating the obama 08 electoral map along with winning AZ and GA. Recent polls have mostly shown a tied race or a slight lead for biden in OH and GA. I am not willing to put texas as a blue state yet but I think it’s very close to being one and I think biden has a pretty good shot at winning it if he can match hilary performance with non-white voters in 2016. I don’t think this race changes much from now to november and the question at this point will be if biden ends up pulling off something no d presidential candidate has done in 56 years which is a 400 EV win.

    Like

    1. Probably true although I don’t think Biden will win Indiana like Obama in 2008, but may win Georgia and even Texas. Iowa I still think Trump has slight edge but certainly could flip. Whether things tighten or not is hard to say. But history shows usually double digit leads rarely hold so I think it may tighten a bit but barring something dramatic, Biden should win.

      Like

      1. A hypothetical Indiana 2020 win would look very different than 2008 most likely. It would likely involve winning suburban Indianapolis counties like Hamilton County (north of the city) and possibly Hendricks (west of the city but a real stretch), as well as winning – probably by a healthy margin – Allen (Fort Wayne), St. Joseph (South Bend) and Vanderburgh (Evansville), along with total domination in Marion and Lake Counties (their traditional base) and swing counties like Porter (farther afield in Chicago area) and Vigo (Terre Haute). The ancestrally blue counties in the southern part of the state are long gone and likely staying hard with Trump.

        I agree re: Oklahoma and the county sweep unable to be replicated. Oklahoma County tightened considerably between 2012 and 2016 and they did vote for a Democrat in the House in 2018 (in a big upset). Cleveland County (Norman) may also swing and Tulsa has an outside chance although it’s one of the most conservative large cities in the US. It won’t come close to tilting the state but the sweep won’t be repeated. In West Virginia, the only counties that MIGHT tilt blue are Kanawha (Charleston) and a couple in the eastern Panhandle (somewhat closer to DC but probably far enough to not feel the swing yet).

        Even in the swing states, the paths will be very different. For example, winning in Pennsylvania requires running up the numbers (not coming close) in the Philadelphia suburbs and swinging traditionally red areas like the Lehigh Valley and counties like Lancaster, since the rural Appalachia counties are likely staying with Trump by large margins. Likewise, in Wisconsin, reducing the margins in traditional GOP strongholds like Waukesha and Ozaukee in the Milwaukee suburbs (winning outright is a stretch but at least coming close will do it) is likely the pathway (that’s what happened in 2018).

        Like

        1. You are right many rural ancestral democrat counties are lost for good. You saw that with Obama in the South, particularly in Middle Tennessee and coal country of West Virginia and Kentucky. Trump simply expanded this into Midwest. Still I cannot see Indiana going for Biden, too red for that. In Oklahoma, Oklahoma county only one that might flip while for West Virginia actually Monogalia County (has a university) most likely followed by Jefferson County (some commute to DC). Still my guess is a Trump sweep again of West Virginia.

          As mentioned with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, I would add in Iowa and Ohio it is similar. Biden isn’t going to win as many rural counties as Obama won in Iowa. If he flips Iowa, it will be by winning bigger in urban ones like Polk, Linn, and Scott counties than Obama was while narrowing the margin in rural counties but not likely flipping very many. For Ohio, it will be by reducing the margins in Cincinnati suburbs although still expect Trump to win those. Also cutting down margins in Columbus suburbs but except Delaware county don’t see others flipping (all have significant rural components so even if Biden wins suburban part, he will lose rural part bad enough to cost him that count) and even Delaware county a stretch but may be Trump by only 5 points. Already saw this in Minnesota with Clinton since had Hennepin and Ramsay County voted the same as 2012, Trump would have won the state in 2016. Clinton only held onto it due to favourable swings there to partially offset big swings towards Trump in rural counties.

          Like

  2. The difference between a narrow Trump loss and a Trump wipeout is huge. In the first scenario, the GOP may hold the Senate or at least keep it roughly 50-50, while leaving both houses of Congress very reachable in 2022. In the second scenario, they will likely lose Senate seats that they have no reason to (and give Doug Jones a fighting chance at a second colossal upset), lose many more seats in the House which makes control of Congress almost unreachable in 2022, and also lose large numbers of seats in state legislatures with some having huge implications (i.e. giving Democrats control of redistricting in many states and blocking Republican trifectas). Fortunately for the GOP, there aren’t really any Governor’s offices ripe for the picking (the red offices are either probably safe – UT, ND, WV, IN and MO – or moderates insulated from Trump – VT and NH).

    Like

    1. I think Montana might flip GOP for governor but that would be it. And since it has only one congressional district, not possible to gerrymander so no concern there. 2022 senate map is pretty favourable for Democrats although midterms tend to favour party not in power due to lower turnout and those from opposing party more motivated to show up. So for senate if Democrats can get over 52 seats, good chance they retain it in 2022 but if only 50 could be somewhat vulnerable. For House, I think state legislatures will play a bigger role in whether it stays Democrat in 2022 or not. As is almost always the case, whichever party occupies White House will lose house seats in midterms. But if Democrats control enough state legislatures, map will be less gerrymandered in favour of GOP thus redistribution more favourable to Democrats. 2024 will be the year senate is more vulnerable as few red states that could flip, although maybe demographics shift enough to unseat Cruz in Texas. Most swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona probably go whichever way national election goes so if GOP flips any of those states, they do for senate while if Democrats win those for president also hold for senate. I think though Jon Tester in Montana will face a tougher fight and Manchin in West Virginia likely toast. In midterms its easier to get more party crossover than in general election as lots of people simply pull the lever for one party so very tough to run more than 10 points ahead or behind party whereas in midterms much easier to do so.

      Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s