60 days until US election and Erin O’Toole’s first week

Erin O’Toole has had his first week on the job and so far has done reasonably well. Definitely a huge step up from Scheer and also more moderate than Harper and Scheer. While I would prefer party return fully to its PC roots, at least O’Toole is not a Reformer like Harper and Scheer and somewhat more acceptable to middle of the road voters. Also largely unknown so how well or how poorly he does will depend a lot on how he presents himself to Canadians. Polls have shown majority of Canadians don’t know who he is thus opportunity both to do quite well, but also to be a flop. His biggest challenge is median voter has swung quite a bit left over past decade so will moderation be enough or not?

US election is 60 days away and polls are starting to get a bit more varied. After convention, many suggested tightening including some key swing states. However, national numbers still show Biden with a strong lead. At this point Biden is heavily favoured to win, but Trump still has a chance, but he needs to close things fast. Also he needs to hope all the most optimistic polls in key swing states are right since taking averages would result in Biden gaining Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina. Even more optimistic ones still put Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in Biden column but at least close enough he could overcome gap whereas more pessimistic ones suggest overcoming gap will be very tough. Anyways over next 10 days, will watch to see if any consistency or still variance.

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