The election is over and while closer than many thought, Biden has won and Trump has lost. His refusal to concede is extremely problematic and he needs to do the right thing and concede and allow for Biden transition to begin.
If race is close enough, a candidate has right to ask for a recount, but none of the states Biden is ahead in is it close enough that it will realistically change. Just to make clear mathematically why its over here is the following. Asides from Nevada, Biden won all Clinton states by more than 5%. In Nevada Biden is ahead by 37,000 votes approximately and while in theory there are enough votes out there, Trump could overturn this, it would require getting 80% or higher in remaining ballots, which there is no chance of happening. Biden has won Michigan by almost 150,000 votes which 15x what Trump won it by in 2016 so also no case there. In Pennsylvania, Biden’s lead is now over 50,000 which is both greater than amount that allows a recount and also high enough Biden would still win even if Trump got every single remaining ballot. Wisconsin shows Biden 20,000 votes ahead which is larger than what Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 won it by and almost what Trump did in 2016. While he has right to ask for recount here, there is zero chance it will flip as usually recounts only change outcome is within a few hundred votes, almost never in the thousands let alone 20,000. So right there, puts Biden over 270 needed. Georgia will go to a recount, but with a 14,000 Biden lead, chances of Trump winning it are close to zero. Arizona has been tightening but Biden still maintains a 11,635 vote lead with around 22,000 votes left thus Trump would need to get 76% in remaining ballots to win here which seems extremely unlikely, but may close enough to trigger a recount. But even if he were to flip Arizona and Georgia, which he almost certainly won’t; he would still lose. So point is there is no mathematical path for Trump to get to 270 electoral votes.
HIs decision to not concede is both reckless and dangerous. If there is voter fraud, then produce the evidence which he so far has not. Yes in most elections, there are always a few illegal votes, but number is very small and most certainly not enough to overturn any states. Never mind it could just as easily go in opposite direction. In fact with GOP’s voter suppression tactics, one cannot help think how many Democrats didn’t vote who wanted to. Still point is unless Trump can produce evidence in court of law of voter fraud, he needs to knock it off. He is holding a nation and to an extent globe hostage due to his own selfish ego. As 9/11 commission stated, the delay in transition in 2000 hurt Bush administration’s ability to act on terrorist threats and at least there it was over one state and a 532 vote difference so close enough to warrant challenges, not multiple states with leads in the thousands. US is seeing record breaking pandemic numbers and to deal with this, a smooth transition is essential. Never mind with potential vaccine to be ready soon, it is essential to have smooth transition to allow for a smooth roll out. In fact Trump’s reckless behavior may even cost lives. Trump’s base is very loyal to him and I am afraid even once Biden takes office, his throwing doubt on results has unnecessarily lead to a mistrust in elections and many Americans will no longer accept results as legitimate when their guy loses. That is very dangerous. I’ve been involved a number of campaigns here in Canada. Some have won, some have lost and I understand losing can be hard. So if Trump wanted to take a day to collect his thoughts, I would not be too upset. But its been four days since election called and this delay is not acceptable. I worry with Trump’s rhetoric, things could turn violent and a bunch of his armed supporters show up for inauguration. All of this is happening due to one man’s selfish ego. But more worrisome is how few Republicans are stepping up and recognizing Biden as legitimate president elect and telling Trump to knock it off. Yes I know they are afraid of base and Trump, but real leaders are shown not when they handle easy decisions, but handle ones they could face backlash. And the role of any politician is to put country first, not party first. This is very dangerous and worrisome.
While in Canada we have never had this, I worry a minority of Trump supporters here won’t accept things as legitimate if Trudeau is re-elected (which is likely but not certain). We need to regardless of political ideology push back against this. By all means ask for recount or question if close and actual evidence irregularities might produce different results, but don’t do this based on baseless conspiracy theories that have no evidence in reality.
4 thoughts on “Trump has lost he needs to concede and allow for a smooth transition”
Miles you said it all when you said “real leaders are shown not when they handle easy decisions, but handle ones they could face backlash”. Forget Trump who is a lost cause. It is his cabinet and senators who need to step up for their country,
Problem is base is loyal to Trump more than party and many figure even when he is gone their ability to not lose a primary and go forward is to kowtow to Trump. But reality is they should do what is right. If base is too caught up in conspiracy theories, best to make clear that is false, not play into it. In US over 70% of Trump voters, believe he won the election and it was stolen so I think there is a bigger problem that you have so many people buying fake news and lies online that have no basis in reality.
Excellent points all – I am just not sure what Trump and his Republican supporters are up to and it is worrisome, especially when he starts firing the head of defence department and installing a Trump loyalist and then talk of firing head of CIA and FBI – starting to sounds as if preparing for a coup, which sounds ludicrous I know……
And could put US at a security risk too. Don’t think for a moment America’s adversaries aren’t taking note and if planning to do anything, now would be the time. In fact the 9/11 commission said the slow transition in 2000 was partly blame for White House not being fully up to date on security issues. And at least that one had some legitimacy as it was over one state and 532 votes. This is over multiple states and several thousands votes. In fact Biden has won the key states by a larger margin than Trump did four years ago, yet both Clinton and Obama fully cooperated despite I am sure both being upset with outcome. This could mean more deaths on COVID-19, slower roll out of vaccine.
As for coup he may try but there is no legal basis. Secret service and military loyal to constitution so he will leave on January 20th, but I have heard he may set up a parallel government out of Mar Lago and try to get foreign leaders to recognize him not Biden as legitimate president. Off course most countries will recognize Biden and at most a few dictatorships. What is scary is in most democracies, someone like him would take country into a dictatorship. Only won’t in US because constitution so robust so should be a warning to other democracies to put in more checks and balances to prevent something from happening if a mad man comes to power.