Today Yukoners go to the polls and in a few hours we should find out who wins. Due to its small population and difficulty of polling, tough to poll and any guess is a fool’s errand. Nonetheless if forced to make a guess; mine would be a Liberal majority. Reason I predict that is Yukon has done quite well in pandemic with relatively few cases while with over 50% of adults having received their first shot. With pandemic being biggest issue and territory doing well on both fronts; I cannot help but think this should be good news for the governing party. That being said there may be other issues so I don’t discount possibility of NDP or Yukon Party pulling off an upset.
In terms of what this means; if Liberals as I predict win, this will be the fifth election since pandemic started where governing party was re-elected so no doubt this will just further motivate Liberals federally to try and get an election while governing parties still benefitting from pandemic. On other hand if NDP wins, this will be a good sign public is ready for a big spending budget and not too concerned about how it will be funded. NDP promises a raft of spending promises funded by a 1% income tax hike on those making over 250,000 and a 2% payroll tax on fly in workers. Its very unlikely that will be anywhere near enough to fund the promises they want. Still this will be first hint as small as it maybe that public is in mood for a big spending government and how to pay for it is a secondary concern. If Yukon party wins, then this shows being an incumbent no longer has same advantage and also that there is an opening for moderate Conservative parties, which is what Yukon Party is. That being said with Yukon having a small population and average riding population only around 2,000 people, local candidates play an outsized role, so best not to read too much into results.
In terms of what I want: as a fiscal conservative, I would be inclined to support the Yukon Party. At same time quite possible if I lived there I might go Liberal as they have done a good job and Sandy Silver is a Martin/Chretien type, not Trudeau type. One thing I can say for sure; I really hope NDP doesn’t win. With NDP federally going way out to left field and Liberals moving leftward, last thing we need is to encourage parties to go even further left.
UPDATE: Yukon Party has won popular vote, it will be a minority government and one outstanding riding is a tie between NDP and Liberals. After recount and possible breaking of tie, anything from tie in seats to Liberals one seat lead means a minority government of some to come. Most likely led by Liberals but who knows. Yukon Party appears to have won popular vote by seven points so much bigger than I thought. Also speaker is going to be key so like BC 2017 and New Brunswick 2018, I expect some drama on that. Anyways once we know who forms government and how things play out, I will do an update. Might be a few weeks though.