Ekos released a recent poll which has some interesting numbers Previously Frozen Political Landscape Now Moving in Favour of Liberals « EKOS Politics with Tories not only tanking, but NDP closing gap and NDP first amongst millennials. Its one poll and obviously we have to see what next election holds, but my view to my dismay has been Canada is about to undergo a big shift left and will emerge as without question as the most left wing country in the developed world. I believe Canada will be the first and only democracy where in the future the battle is between left and further left. Harper’s goal may have been to make the Conservatives the natural governing party but I believe opposite will happen. I see Tories going the way of the Union Nationale in Quebec and Alberta Social Credit. Below I will explain why I think this will happen and why it will be unique to Canada. Note this is depressing to write as not what I want, but sometimes you have to recognize what is happening even if not to your liking.
Pandemic created circumstances that made big government more popular as many happy government supported those out of work, but also restrictions quite popular to try to reduce cases and deaths. Right talking about smaller government just doesn’t sell as well as this compounds on other issues such as income inequality and climate change which are pushing country leftward. Often people’s views are influenced by those around them and there is always to some degree a group think mentality. As such success of any ideology requires a critical mass to stay relevant and you lack that critical mass it withers away. Tories still have that critical mass but trend is going to point where they won’t and thus will become unelectable. If everyone around you is left wing and you don’t live and breathe politics; you are naturally going to probably share similar views. Left is getting very close to point where people only hear left wing viewpoints and everything they hear about right is all negative and bad thus people assume left good and right bad. As such my brutal harsh predictions which I hope I am wrong on but have a gut feeling will be right are as follows:
- BC NDP emerge as natural governing party and take on role BC Liberals/Social Credit did in past century
- Alberta NDP not only wins next election but emerges as the natural governing party governing for long periods
- Manitoba NDP also elected
- Ontario stays competitive, but long term Liberals and NDP come to dominate with PCs withering away like they will nationally
- Quebec might be the one good news story for centre-right, but its Quebec and with language barrier, often what happens there doesn’t spread elsewhere. Never mind federally Tories still weak and likely to stay weak.
- Atlantic Canada becomes a liberal monolith and the 2015 sweep was no anomaly, it is new normal. PCs still win some provincial due to Red Toryism but federally are finished there.
- Liberals remain in government until at least 2030 and after that NDP not Tories emerge as main alternative. Liberals don’t become like BC Liberals they remain a centre-left party and future elections are battles on the left with Conservatives being a perennial third place party.
On policy front, I think you are going to see a combination of a super woke country on cultural issues, but economically very left wing with government being bigger than we’ve ever seen. While some may say woke politics are divisive and that is true in other countries, Canadians aren’t like other people. We are by far the most compassionate people on earth and very much a country about the little guy. As such woke politics sells well here as it is who we are. Likewise on economic policies, Canadians are upset about gap between rich and poor despite ours being smaller than many. As such I think you will see government play a much bigger role in economy. Yes we will be poorer for it, but more equal and Canadians care about latter not former.
Now these are just my gut instinct and maybe I will be proven wrong. People say things go in cycles, but I feel this is a permanent shift but obviously only time will tell.