Barring something unforeseen happening, it looks like writ will be dropped this Sunday for an election to take place on September 20th. I will blog periodically as campaign progresses and on major issues. Below is where I see the parties right now and starting line, but note that can change. While some elections like 2019 result in election day numbers similar to pre-election poll numbers; others like 2015, 2006, 1993 just to name a few resulted in results that most at beginning would have said are crazy. So this is where things are now, not necessarily where they will be on election day. Still I think Liberals winning most seats is extremely likely. I believe there is about a 5% chance Liberals will not be largest party so they are definitely heavy favourites. But in no election is the winner ever 100% certain.
Below are my thoughts on each of the party, so lets see if these look accurate or silly on September 20th.
Liberals: Definitely in the driver’s seat but still would only take a slight uptick to win a landslide majority of over 200 seats while only a slight drop to struggle to hold the 157 they have (note biggest drop in Tory support is Prairies so Tory vote is probably not as inefficient as was in 2019). That being said, short of a monumental mess up or one opposition leader really catching on, they should win most seats. Real question is will it be a majority or minority. I think majority is narrowly favoured, but wouldn’t be shocked if they fall a bit short either.
Conservatives: Right now in very bad shape and most likely election will be a defensive one. Pandemic has been devastating for parties on right as moderates who they need to win over tend to support vaccinations, vaccine passports, and public health restrictions, while much of their right flank opposes them so have to look over both shoulders. Go right and fail to win key swing votes they need. Go closer to centre and risk PPC or Maverick Party gaining and splitting votes. Still Tories do tend to outperform polls is one saving grace, but usually only 2-3 points so not nearly enough to get them anywhere near power. Perhaps one thing that could cheer them up is Harper going into 2006 election had similar numbers, but you also had a 13 year incumbent rocked by major scandal, not 6 year one who people seem okay with thus I think shifts like you saw in 2006 are very unlikely.
NDP: Singh has very high personal numbers so definitely has potential for NDP surge. Still repeating 1990 election in Ontario, 2015 in Alberta, 2011 federally, or 2018 in Ontario will be tough. To make matters worse, NDP vote heavily skews towards millennials who generally don’t vote in same numbers as older voters do. That being said Singh’s personal popularity does bode well if Trudeau slips up and more importantly lead amongst millennials suggests long term party has potential to do quite well.
Bloc Quebecois: Down a bit from last election, but Quebec tends to be quite volatile and usually we don’t know which way they will go until about 2 weeks before election so I could see them either gaining or losing seats.
Green Party: With all the infighting, they are pretty much toast. They will be lucky if they can hold onto a single seat. Their best option would be immediate leadership change but might be too late. BQ back in 2017 was in similar crisis and things looked bleak but recovered through leadership change, but Greens lack time for that.
PPC/Maverick Party: I suspect both win 0 seats and underperform. Most of their rabid supporters hate Trudeau with a passion so when push comes to shove, I expect most to end up voting Conservative in end (although won’t be nearly enough for Tories to win).
So these are my pre-election thoughts. As for how I will vote, well it definitely won’t be Liberals or NDP. Conservatives are probably party I am closest to, but admit unless they run a surprisingly strong campaign with good ideas, I will probably end up voting for them with my nose plugged. And if they screw up badly enough, I may consider spoiling my ballot. Too bad we don’t have write-in option like US does as I would seriously consider that if we had it.