As usual here are my 2022 predictions around the globe. Some countries that use PR may have early elections, but this one will only be on those who are scheduled for elections next year. With pandemic, I believe making predictions is even harder than normal. Voters are more fickle and as pandemic drags on, I expect divide between those worried about COVID-19 thus favouring restrictions and those fatigued and wanting to go back to normal will grow.
We have two provincial elections next year. Quebec is an easy one to predict, but Ontario could be a competitive race.
PCs led by Doug Ford win both the popular vote and most seats but fall just shy of a majority. Doug Ford introduces a throne speech and gets defeated on it. Steve Del Duca becomes premier and signs a supply and confidence agreement with NDP.
Francois Legault is re-elected with an even bigger majority, but not quite as big a landslide as some polls say. I am guessing between 80-90 seats while popular vote in mid 40s.
Alberta UCP leadership review
Kenney is forced to resign with just over 50% voting to dump him. Brian Jean wins leadership race and becomes next premier. He gets a weak honeymoon thus UCP narrowly regaining lead in polls, but by Fall of 2022, NDP regains their lead. If my prediction in polls turns out to be true, I will in a year’s time predict an NDP majority with Notley winning in 2023, but I am going to wait until January 1st of 2023 before making firm prediction here.
GOP retakes house with Democrats losing around 20-30 seats so not as big a drubbing as 2010 due to gerrymandering and greater polarization
GOP takes that 52-48. North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin only 3 Democrats have a shot at, but I predict GOP holds all three. Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and New Hampshire are vulnerable and GOP picks up two, Democrats hold two.
GOP gains 4 to 5 govenorships
Bolsonaro gets defeated and is one and done. Not particularly close, but Bolsonaro still has a large enough following to get in low 40s.
Socialist party wins again, but by much narrower margin. Question is do they rely on three parties to left of them to pass legislation or try to form a grand coalition with Social Democratic Party? Too early to tell.
German Regional elections
SPD comes in first in all four this year (Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein, Saarland, and North Rhine Westphalia) and coalitions formed a mixture of grand, red-green (where possible) and traffic light like nationally to in some.
Easy part is Macron comes in first in first round and makes second round. He could face Zemmour, LePen or Precesse. My guess is he faces Precesse of Les Republicains. Unlike other two where he would be heavily favoured to win, this will be a very tight race. My guess is he is re-elected but by less than 2% so very close.
For national assembly, it is a hung parliament, but Les Republicains win most seats but not a majority so get the prime-minister.
Right wing populist Slovenian Democratic party comes in first place, but current government fails to win a majority so like 2018, centre and left wing parties unite to form a coalition.
Labour is re-elected
Social Democrats win most seats but neither the Alliance for Sweden on centre-right or Red Bloc have a majority. Moderate party and Christian Democrats form a coalition and gain support from Sweden Democrats who are not part of coalition but promise to support it.
Orban narrowly wins against a united opposition
Democratic candidate is elected but by a much narrower margin than in 2017.
Marcos wins while for house and senate PDP-Laban which is party Duterte leads wins both.
Labor is successful this time in winning, but once again polls dramatically overestimate them it ends up being a 51-49 Labor win.
4 thoughts on “2022 Election predictions”
Happy New Year Miles – I hope we see you again soon! As always, your predictions provide me with a mix of comfort and joy as well as fear and worry, because they are so often accurate on all counts. I hope with all my heart that you are right about Alberta, Brazil and Sweden, and that you are wrong about the Quebec, the USA, the Phillipines and Hungary. I know you too hope that you turn out to be as wrong on a few fronts as you will be right on others. But I also know how often your well informed prognostications turn out to be, whether they are the desired outcome for healthy democracies or not. Here’s hoping that in 2022, the best mix of right and wrong predictions comes to pass for the world’s sake. Nature has certainly told us in no uncertain terms that we need good governance across the globe to solve the problems we face in the years ahead…..
I doubt you will like the Sweden one as it means far right Sweden Democrats hold balance of power but not in government. As for Quebec, I have mixed feelings on Legault but alternatives are so weak that he is safe. For US, its pretty much always the case incumbent party in White House loses ground in midterms and because Democrats have such a narrow margin in both House and Senate, only takes a few flips to change it. So Democrats should use this year to try and pass things like Voting rights act (remove filibuster on that) and a revised watered down version of Build back better that focuses on doing a few things well rather than many.
Philippines means Duterte is gone but replacement is daughter of Marcos who was a brutal dictator. With Brazil, I am quite confident Bolsonaro loses. What I am less confident about is that he leaves. Like Trump he will try every trick up his sleeve to stay in power and with Brazil’s constitution not being as strong as the US one, there is a chance he might succeed. And if he does, means Brazil is no longer a democracy.
In the US, my thinking for the midterms right now:
* House – Republicans take a narrow majority, gaining only about 15 seats (+/- 10). It was already pretty gerrymandered and there aren’t a lot of Democrats sitting in red seats, while some swing seats were shored up as well. The infighting becomes big in 2023-24 since the MAGA wing would not quite have a majority.
* Senate – My range is from a Democrat pickup of 1 to a Republican pickup of 2, which could become R+4 on a really good night for them or D+3 if things change dramatically the other way (highly unlikely). It largely depends on the strength of the candidates on the GOP side, but so far they seem to be failing to recruit strong candidates into those races. All those states, except North Carolina, have tough Governor races as well, so turnout may get a boost. IMO, if the GOP have a 1 or 2 seat majority, it would still frustrate the MAGA wing as Collins, Romney and the like will hold up some of the most radical policies and prevent the filibuster from being axed (like Manchin and Simena are doing).
As far as ratings:
Safe R – AL (open), AR, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MO (open), OK, SC, SD, UT
Likely R – AK, FL, OH (open)
Leaning R – NC (open), WI
Tossup – AZ, GA, PA (open)
Leaning D – NV, NH
Likely D – CO
Safe D – CA, CT, HI, IL, MD, NY, OR, VT (open), WA
* Governors – I think it will be between a Democrat pickup of 3 and a Republican pickup of 2 (with D+4 and R+6 being the extreme possibilities). There are two likely flips to blue in Maryland (Hogan term limited) and Massachusetts (Baker not running again), with Kansas the most likely (better than 50/50, but not as certain) flip to red. Vermont likely flips as well if Phil Scott retires (but is secure if he runs again) and Arizona and Georgia are tough races with brutal GOP primaries. I know a lot of Democrats want to flip Florida, but I think that is highly unlikely – DeSantis probably wins by about 5 points or so.
As far as ratings:
Safe R – AL, AR (open), ID, NE (open), NH, OK, SC, SD, TN, WY
Likely R – AK, FL, IA, OH, TX, VT
Leaning R – KS (pickup)
Tossup – AZ (open), GA, MI, PA (open), WI
Leaning D – ME, MN, NV, NM
Likely D – CO, IL, MD (open; pickup), MA (open; pickup), OR (open), RI (open)
Safe D – CA, CT, HI (open), NY
Mine are somewhat similar but a bit less optimistic for Democrats simply because I find midterms as we saw in Virginia governor race and New Jersey governor one tend to have lower turnouts and those whose party is not in power are more motivated to show up than those whose party is in White House. Of your lean D and likely D, I would not be surprised if the GOP wins one or two of them, just don’t know which ones. It seems every cycle, you get a few surprises and usually party outside White House tends to do better than they would in a presidential election.
This is not unique to US, you see this a lot in European subnational elections and EU elections which are usually bad news for governing party and good for opposition. True for Germany I predicted a sweep of SPD, but Scholz will still be in honeymoon phase thus why. 2023 I wouldn’t be surprised if it is a bad year for SPD for German state elections. You see it too in Canada; its why 8 of 10 provinces have small c conservative governments and only one province and on territory have Liberal, while when Trudeau came to office, 7 of 10 provinces had Liberal governments and a month after when Newfoundland flipped, there was no conservative one although BC and Saskatchewan had small c conservative by different names. So same idea.