It is that time of year of again so below are my predictions. As usual probably get some right and some wrong. As always events matter and those in fall most likely to see circumstances change than those in next few months.
Unless federal government calls an early election (I don’t think they will, although think Liberals regain lead and Poilievre becomes more and more unpopular) or some provinces not scheduled call an early one, there will be three next year so here they are.
Alberta: As stated many times, my prediction is an NDP majority and that has not changed. But I will go bolder and say NDP gets over 50% of the popular vote while UCP under 40%. As Liz Truss and midterms in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania showed; chose an extremist and even some long time supporters will go elsewhere thus getting results that in normal conditions would seem ridiculous.
Manitoba: Also an NDP majority, but here I will predict PCs win popular vote thanks to running up margins in rural southern areas, but NDP still wins majority of seats. Wab Kinew will become the first First Nation premier in Southern Canada (NWT and Nunavut have had one, but no province has).
Prince Edward Island: PC landslide here with PCs winning every seat save Green Party leader’s seat.
Quiet year with only three state elections, but my prediction is Democrats hold Kentucky but GOP flips Louisiana and holds Mississippi. All three are solid red states but Beshear is a Blue Dog Democrat so has lots of crossover appeal.
Argentina: Centre-right wins presidency thanks to horrible economy and hyper-inflation
Estonia: Centre-right Reform party wins and forms a coalition with other centre-right parties.
Finland: Centre-right National Rally wins most votes but current governing coalition still retains majority. However Centre Party defects and joins up with other centre-right parties resulting in National Rally forming government and Sanna Marin ousted as PM.
Germany: Hesse – Black-Green coalition, Berlin – Red-Red-Green, Bavaria – CSU-Free voter coalition, Bremen – Red-Green.
Greece: New Democracy is re-elected but loses majority and in theory parties on left could form government, but since it would involve including far left pro-Russian KKE, grand coalition between New Democracy and centre-left KINAL is formed.
Luxembourg: CSV comes in first but one of worst showings so governing coalition of Democratic Party, Greens, and LSAP continues.
Spain: Popular party wins most votes but falls short of majority. Refuses to form a coalition with far right Vox but instead goes on issue by issue. Vox abstains on vote for PM allowing Feijoo to become PM. In regional elections in May, PSOE loses a few but not all autonomous communities and PP gains some.
Poland: United right re-elected but loses majority but gets one smaller party to back them.
Switzerland: Swiss People’s Party comes in first again and same magic formula for government that has existed for decades of 2 SVP, 2 SDP, 2 FDP, and 1 CVP remains in place. Greens though may be included as get in double digits.
Turkey: Erdogan loses but claims it was rigged and like with Istanbul mayor, orders another election which he rigs and wins.
Ukraine: Zelensky’s party wins a landslide as people unite behind leader in war.
Australia: New South Wales – Labor picks up for L/NP
New Zealand: Ardern narrowly loses with National Party + ACT getting slimmest of majority