Tories surge to majority territory and what it means

With the notable exception of Nanos polling, most polls show if an election were held today, the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre would win most seats hands down and probably cross the majority mark. This is much better for them than I thought possible so question is whether this is a blip or a long term trend. I believe it is far too early to say.

Reason I believe this is happening is a combination of factors. First and foremost is high cost of living and many feel government is asleep at the switch here. Also I think Trudeau’s arrogance and general feeling government has lost touch with much of the public is another big reason. At same time Poilievre for all his flaws is a very effective opposition leader and no doubt that is paying off to some degree. Although I believe unhappiness with Liberal government is more reason than people wanting Poilievre to be prime-minister. The core 30% who always vote Conservative are quite excited about him, but Tories always had those all along. It was more would it be enthusiastic support like we see under Poilievre or more reluctant like under O’Toole. As for swing voters, I think most have decided Liberals have overstayed their welcome but their opinions on Conservatives are still quite soft and a lot will depend on events in next two years to determine whether Conservatives solidify this, they return back to Liberals, or decide to just stay home and not vote all due dislike of all options. Despite bad poll numbers, I don’t by any means believe this is a done deal and while Liberals may be on ropes, they still can win next election.

Conservatives are in a good place now and a majority would allow them to do many things they want as well as some controversial things which would not be possible with a minority. Also a majority ends any speculation that Liberals and NDP will gang up to keep Tories out. However, there have been multiple cases of parties further behind coming back and winning. Below are five examples showing it is possible but also each had something the current government lacks.

1. In 1987, polls showed NDP with narrow lead and Liberals close second while PCs in a distant third. A year later the PCs came back with a second majority. Big reason for this was 1988 election was a single issue election, free trade. Finding a single issue to make election about and getting it work for Liberals will be no easy task but sure it is possible.
2. In 1992 when Don Getty stepped down as premier, PCs were in third at 15% and it looked like Liberals were going to win next Alberta election. Under Ralph Klein party came back and not only won next election but would go on to win four back to back elections. This off course involved leadership change.
3. In 2012, BC Liberals were trailing by 20 points and most of us including myself more or less accepted NDP was going to win 2013 election. But to surprise of many, BC Liberals came back and won. That happened for three reasons as for starters polls were wrong so likely NDP lead was probably closer to 10 points, not 20. Also much of low numbers was due to unhappiness with HST and Gordon Campbell and both no longer applicable in 2013 election. Finally BC Conservatives were in double digits and as such combined right wing vote was only about 5 points behind NDP. BC Conservatives crashed and burned and most went BC Liberal. In theory if federal NDP fell to 5%, Trudeau could win, but considering how established federal NDP is, that seems unlikely.
4. Ontario Liberals in 2012 were in third when Dalton McGuinty resigned with NDP having narrowing lead and PCs in close second. After party choose Wynne and moved left much of NDP vote who had left OLP returned allowing Liberals to win a majority in 2014. Off course eventually their luck ran out when lost 2018 election badly.
5. UCP in 2021 was 15 points behind and many including myself were almost certain Notley was going to win 2023 election. This involved changing leader, but also if you added UCP + WIP, the right was only 2-3 points behind NDP and undecided vote which was at 20% was overwhelmingly former UCP voters. WIP rising was due to dissatisfaction of covid so as covid became less of an issue and economy rebounded this helped UCP and WIP imploded. Likewise undecided vote ultimately came home for most part which is not uncommon. Unfortunately I have little data on how big undecided is and how they voted in 2021. If large and mostly former Liberals, the party may still have a decent shot.

So yes Liberals can come back, but not easy. Best way would be to change leaders and get someone like Anand, Champagne, or Carney. I think there is a fatigue with Trudeau so a more centrist, competent and boring would probably win back many centrist who have moved to Tories or undecided. Other solution is go bold to drive NDP down and also make election a polarizing one along class lines like Glen Clark did in 1996 here in BC. I do not support such policies and would probably not end well, but if advising Liberals (I really hope they don’t follow my advice), I would advise following to trip up Tories. Both offer more programs and higher taxes on rich and when Tories oppose, claim Tories are party of rich, Liberals ordinary people as right now Tories seen for ordinary people as wanting to deal with cost of living crisis and Liberals more affluent who are less impacted by cost of living.

1. On program side go for full universal dental care and pharmacare with private payment completely eliminated and both brought under Canada Health Act. Also promise to make post secondary education free over next five years.
2. To pay for this, institute following wealth taxes of 1% over $10 million, 2% over $20 million, 3% over 50 million, 5% over $100 million while make net worth over a billion illegal and anything above that confiscated by government. For those who try to move abroad to avoid wealth tax, hit them with a 50% exit tax on net worth. Also for earnings, add a bracket of 36% for over 500K and 40% over 1 million.

First one costly and would limit choice while much cheaper to target those most in need. Latter would be economically disastrous and hurt Canada long term but most being not good on economics wouldn’t see this and impossible to explain in 10 second sound bytes. Probably would though cost Liberals big time in 2029 but would squeeze out another term and more than anything pull Canada economically decidedly to left. Instead would be easy campaign of Trudeau on your side, Poilievre on side of wealthy. Those who studied economics like myself would be horrified, but those without would likely support this which is most Canadians. Sure it could backfire, but I am of view tall poppy syndrome runs strong in Canada and this would play well. Heck could go even bolder by creating a government run telecommunications company, government run airline, government run grocery store. Sure would probably be worse service than current ones, but considering how much Canadians love to hate such companies also probably a vote winner. And it wouldn’t be a monopoly so people would still have choice of sticking with current private options. Still changing leaders is probably the safer option if Liberals wish to recover. Other is work night and day on housing and cost of living issue and hope that resolves itself before next election. Could even maybe reverse a few things as people like politicians who show humility so pausing carbon tax increases and scaling back immigration would both be signs government is listening and trying to ease things. But Trudeau doesn’t strike me as type who is willing to admit he is wrong and change course. Also Liberals if serious should go big on attack ads. Rule of thumb in politics is define yourself or be defined by your opponent. So far Poilievre has defined himself while Dion & Ignatieff crashed and burned as Tories defined them before they could define themselves. And if lack money, promise sweetheart deals for public sector unions in exchange for them bombing airwaves with negative third party ads like Working Families Coalition did in Ontario in past.

Many claim election is 2 years away, but I actually think it will be in Fall of 2024. NDP won’t pull plug as for starters cannot afford a campaign and also NDP is about creating a more left wing Canada and they know baby steps Liberals have made would all be undone if Tories win so they have every desire to ensure Tories do not win. Reason I think Liberals go then as it would be at same time as US election so could compare Tories to GOP who are bound to propose lots of crazy off the wall stuff that will scare most Canadians. In 2025, that will only work if Trump wins White House, which I wouldn’t bank on whereas in Fall of 2024 works regardless of who wins White House.

So no doubt at this point Tories are favourites to win next election and Poilievre has done better than I predicted. But as for reasons explained above, I don’t think next election is a done deal yet. Off course just as Liberals could recover, they could just as easily also fall to third place too so things can go either way. I do however believe that Canada still remains firmly a centre-left country and while people upset at state of things, there is no large scale desire for major rightward shift, even if in some areas (not all or even most it may be needed). Sure some may think Trudeau has pushed things a little too far left, but I actually don’t believe he is that far off median Canadian voter. As I have explained elsewhere, I believe Canada today is one of the most left wing countries in developed world so while Trudeau couldn’t win in US or most Asian countries and would struggle or lose in most European, Canada is both more economically and socially to left than most due to both demographics and our values. Still 30% are solidly right wing and around 10% close to middle and open to conservative ideas thus why Conservatives can win whereas if left united I believe Conservative wins would be far and few.