No big shift right happening

Some on right salivating how Canada is about to go through a major transformation with a strong rightward swing just as US & UK did in 80s under Reagan and Thatcher. I personally don’t think it is very likely even if Poilievre wins a majority and I think it is more wishcasting then likely reality.

On social issues, Canada is largely socially progressive as compassion and tolerance are fundamental Canadian values we take pride in. Yes some feel the so called woke crowd has maybe gone too far, but that does not mean most want to go down path Ron DeSantis has in Florida. Many find culture wars tiring and see those focusing on it as ignoring more pressing issues. Also Canadians are big on tolerance and respect for historically disadvantaged groups so even if find woke crowd going too far, anything that sounds bigoted in anyway they tend to reject.

On economic issues, I believe Canadians are centre-left here too. In past tradition was fiscally conservative but socially liberal and while I proudly fall in that cohort, I don’t believe majority do. That group is overrepresented by educated types with above average incomes but unlike 90s where popular, much less so today. Fact is most want more not fewer social programs. On taxes, most want those making their income and less to pay lower taxes while those making more to pay higher taxes. Canadians may notionally like idea of balanced budgets, but moment you mention what programs you plan to cut or what taxes you plan to raise and they go elsewhere. Indeed, parties like BC United who follow this are really struggling while 20 years ago quite strong. So in terms of size of government, there may be some support for cutting waste and excesses, but I don’t see appetite for radical reductions like Mike Harris in 90s did or Reagan & Thatcher did in 80s. Just cutting size back to Harper levels (which would be wise economically) is probably a bridge too far for most Canadians. Indeed through most of history, Canadians have tended to vote for parties on left who will grow government while parties on right who will keep it at current size. The 90s was an anomaly due to fiscal crisis so I believe fiscal conservatism only becomes popular when we hit a fiscal crisis but not otherwise. And while in bad shape fiscally, we still have a ways to go before hitting state we were in 90s. Yes if Trudeau is PM until 2030 and continues to spend like he does, we probably will get there and with an aging population might even be worse. But point is not there yet even if on long term trajectory to get there.

I believe rise in support for Poilievre is more fatigue with Trudeau government and unhappy with economic situation at moment rather than desire for big shift right. No different than in UK where Labour seeing massive lead but I don’t believe UK is experiencing a big shift left. In fact I suspect in a decade even if UK has a Labour government and Canada has a Conservative; Canada will still be on balance somewhat to left of UK as it is now. Instead if Poilievre wins next election (note despite polls still not a done deal even if likely), one of two things will happen.

1. Wanting to win re-election he will be moderate like Ford and Harper and make some changes at edges but nothing too radical. No doubt some in base will complain but at end of day that is the only way to succeed long term.
2. He will like Mike Harris go big and after one or two terms max suffer a big defeat and result in Tories being in opposition for a long time much like Ontario PCs were. During that time Liberals, or NDP will grow government and by time Tories return to office it will be bigger than it is now just as we saw in Ontario.

Otherwise while Reagan and Thatcher both permanently shifted their countries to the right, I don’t see it happening in Canada. US always had a strong libertarian current while in UK they had a much stronger class based political system so as more moved into the middle class, country moved rightward. In Canada middle class tends to ally with working class much like in Scotland while in England middle class tends to ally more with well off than working class much like US although in US many in working class vote right over culture wars or blame those even further down the chain. A recent poll showed on restricting speech on campus most popular with low income, least with higher playing into concept that minority solidarity runs strong in Canada. The socialist idea its everyone against the rich white males has much more currency in Canada than does in US or UK. Its why Tories trying to win over minorities on LGBT issues may have some success but not to degree they wish as most understand you prevent discrimination standing in solidarity. Canadians also are very cautious and risk averse so generally radical change in either direction is a tough sell, but at least moving country to left is easier than to right. And if we look at last two governments, Harper didn’t really shift country that much to right. Made a few minor changes like scrapping gun registry, Canadian Wheat Board, but more radical stuff like privatizing CBC, scrapping bilingualism, outlawing abortion, banning gay marriage, scrapping Canada Health Act, flat tax etc he stayed well clear of. By contrast Trudeau has definitely made Canada more left wing and if Poilievre tries to just move Canada back to where it was in 2015, the pushback will likely be massive. Realistically the best I can see him doing is getting Canada back to where it was in 2019 unless willing to be a one term wonder.

Many mistakenly including myself thought Harper’s win in 2011 was a big shift right. Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson even wrote a book on that and so far hasn’t fully materialized. By contrast while Trudeau winning in 2015 wasn’t a radical shift left, definitely more transformative than Harper was. Yes Mulroney on right was a lot more transformative but most of his changes were just to bring Canada in line with rest of world, hardly radical. In fact many further right hated him as he wasn’t a real conservative. So while possible Poilievre is a transformative leader who dramatically shifts country to right, I am extremely skeptical. I saw with Ford and Kenney how just minor cuts to get spending under control led to big drop in polls and same with Brad Wall suggesting even in Alberta & Saskatchewan austerity is a vote loser. People’s views change but usually at a gradual pace with radical shifts only happening if some massive crisis. Likewise we live right next door to US which is quite conservative compared to most Western countries and Canadians have always had strong desire to be different from US so as long as US right is quite right wing, I don’t see Canadian right going anywhere. While sometimes childish and over top, desire to be different than Americans runs deep in Canadian psyche sometimes to point we just blindly oppose anything seen as too American. But that does mean unless US makes big shift left, right is going to be limited here.

So to all the Conservatives fantasizing about various right wing policies coming to reality soon, I would cool it. Maybe happens, but odds are it won’t. Heck even me, I am more or less resigned to idea top marginal tax rates will remain above 50% for foreseeable future, retirement age will stay at 65 by time I reach that age even if Canada is only developed country left that hasn’t raised it, and restrictions on private health care will stay in place. I think actual ban and elimination of private pay options for basic health care (they exist even if small) is far more likely than moving to a full blown parallel private system. Otherwise I still believe long term, Canada will as always has been remain a moderate but slightly left of centre country with us long term moving leftward even if not linear with some occasional minor detours to right but trend to left.