Rise of right wing populism

I think it is fair to say for those like myself who abhor right wing populism things pretty depressing globally. In last two days we had elections in Argentina and Netherlands where extreme candidates won in both with former being libertarian while latter Islamophobe. In Netherlands have to form coalition so maybe Geert Wilders won’t become PM, but still very upsetting came in first. Yes I get in Argentina alternative was pretty awful as a Peronist so if one off due to awful alternative I could dismiss that, but global trend is very disturbing. Below I will first list all the problematic ones and then list what I think causes and is there a solution.

Globally there is lots to be upset about so below is a long list.

Americas:

US: Trump is leading in most polls and fact after trying to launch an insurrection is both scary and appalling. If he wins, it may mean end of democracy in US. Only comforting fact is most elections in last year have seen GOP underperform polls but relying on polls being wrong is cold comfort.

Canada: While not as bad as elsewhere, Danielle Smith in Alberta is a real problem and I do worry as per my other blog posts what she could mean for Alberta and rest of Canada. Only comforting thing here is it was a lot closer in a province where Tories normally win by landslides suggesting there are other moderate centre-right types like me who found her too much to stomach. With Poilievre still unsure but fact an unabashed conservative and in low 40s does leave me worried there may be more support for this than some of us realize. While he is not like others mentioned, he is way to willing to pander to such and I am of view that you normalize such vile views, they grow until eventually win as saw in US and in Europe.

Argentina: Just elected a libertarian guy who wants to blow up all government. Sure went too far left under current Peronist, but going to opposite extreme won’t solve much. Libertarianism may appeal to some but it ignores reality we are part of a society and minimalist government doesn’t work in a modern advanced society. Sure too big government bad, but so is too little so its finding right balance. At same time Chile & Peru had similar elections where choice of far right vs. far left so seems in Latin America run offs are between two extremes and moderates getting knocked off in first round.

Europe

Finland & Sweden: While both have mainstream centre-right parties in government, both include far right parties that got close to 20% in coalitions and I fear as mentioned elsewhere that normalizing such parties just makes them grow further.

Germany: Far right AfD now in second in low 20s and with election still 22 months away, it is not impossible they might win. Many are Holocaust deniers and to think after years of country trying to say never again may return to such vile ideology is scary.

Netherlands: Far right has often polled well in between elections, but come election day always flopped until now. Now far right Islamophobic and fascist Geert Wilders has come in first. He may not become PM (lets hope not) but still fact came in first is very worrisome.

Belgium: In Flanders, far right Vlaams Belang leads polls. Only reason far right no threat there is in Wallonia and Brussels, they are practically non-existent.

France: Marine LePen has a very good chance of winning next French election and this is despite a run off which in theory is supposed to help keep out far right parties. Yes not until 2027 so still time for things to change.

Austria: Far right FPO in lead and will likely lead government after next year’s election as FPO + OVP have majority and centre-right OVP has in past worked with them.

Portugal: While no immediate threat, Chega which was low single digits a few years back is now mid teens so won’t be part of government after 2024 election, but if follows trajectory of other European countries could in a decade or so.

Italy: While Meloni has not been as bad as feared, fact Italy has a far right PM still concerning and fact she is only G7 leader with positive approval rating worries me more that them winning and crashing & burning and going away may not happen.

Hungary: Orban has been in power for over a decade and no sign of facing defeat

Now with all bad news in Europe, the defeat of right wing populists in Poland is perhaps one positive sign, but as US showing this may be a reprieve rather than end. Other good news is right wing populism seems nowhere in UK so perhaps Brexit and all its problems is helping destroy it so if anything positive of Brexit that maybe it. After all leaving EU is bad; electing a fascist and/or racist government even worse even if still inside EU.

Asia:

Israel: While fully supportive of Israel’s right to defend itself, Bibi is a bit too much to right and some parties he has in coalition downright scary. But does seem based on polls Israel will likely get a centrist government after next election

India: Modi is in power and shows no signs of losing grip there.

Question becomes what is cause of this? Obviously each one has its own unique reason, but I do think there are some common themes and what is scary is unlike left wing populists who I can easily find solutions to counter, for right wing much harder. With high inflation, stagnate growth and fewer opportunities I understand many are hurting now and if voting for left wing populists like Corbyn or Sanders, I would strongly disagree but at least there would be some logic and I could easily find a way to counter that. With right wing populists, I am truly stumped why someone struggling would think they offer any solution other than just going on emotional impulses of things are bad so whomever is most anti establishment must be solution. Other one and this is big one is social media is amplifying polarization and making it worse. This is one that I find most worrisome. Free speech is a cornerstone of democracy and allowing governments to regulate social media could easily be abused thus it is something I want to avoid if possible. But at same time with amount of disinformation out there, I am worried it has reached point that too many are believing falsehoods and if something not done it won’t end well. Ideally best thing would be if owners of social media companies would put country and global community first and take action voluntarily so that way wouldn’t involve government needing to get involved and avoid massive disinformation. Perhaps best solution is since publicly traded companies, all of us concerned about this join together and buy enough shares that we can vote out management and replace with one who will care. But organizing such a feat is no easy task and not sure who could pull this off.

Other one is woke backlash which I think is quite frankly stupid. Are some woke types over the top, sure. But reality is best just to ignore them as reality if you think about it closely, its not like they are dramatically impacting our lives in most cases. True their support for Hamas is one notable exception which I rightly called out in earlier post. Instead I see woke types as deeply compassionate people who care for the most vulnerable and feel world is unjust and want to fix this. Their ideas may be overly simplistic and solutions naive, but at least they have their hearts in right place. And I think if someone has heart in right place but unrealistic ideas, reacting negatively is totally wrong way to go about it. Better solution is find more realistic ways to improve things for disadvantaged even if fall short as progress is always a long winding road and what matters is trajectory is right one even if takes time to get to right destination. Also after doing some self reflection, I think many dislike woke as makes them personally uncomfortable. Being a well off white straight male means being told I am an oppressor and have unearned privilege may be a tough pill to swallow, but sometimes road to social justice for those with privilege means accepting uncomfortable truths. Just because it is uncomfortable doesn’t mean it is wrong as sometimes progress requires doing things we may find uncomfortable with. Main thing is not to pushback like many are but instead pause and think it through. Yes after thinking things through in many cases one may find woke types are ridiculous and their arguments have no merit, but other times maybe they do. And its through both listening and discussing we will get progress, not just blind pushback. At same time I also think woke left needs to tone things down and focus on better, not perfect and realize road to justice is a long winding one, but arc of human history is towards progress even if it involves many detours. So just as right pushing back needs to stop it, woke types need to think about how can we achieve the best results long term, not what momentarily makes one feel good.

Final one is pushing back against so called liberal elites. Yes it is true establishment or so called liberal elites maybe are detached from average person in life they lead, but they are hardly ignorant. Yes they are sometimes condescending and talk down to others, but hey I feel same way with many on right as when someone makes ignorant stupid arguments that one finds repulsive and not fact based, how is it not hard to react that way? For me, when someone on left is condescending, I don’t push back, instead I stop and reflect. As a kid when scolded by teacher and parent, I would do what told so in many ways when liberal elites talk down to people it has same feeling and I learned from life experience pushing back gets you nowhere, but listening and doing what told tends to work. Now obviously as an adult in a free country, I am under no obligation to just fall in line, but I do believe life lessons we learn we should apply so in such cases I at least pause and think things through. I don’t always agree with liberal elites, but I do try to form opinions they find acceptable and tolerate and at least if ones they strongly disagree with I do so based on facts and research. One example is I support a parallel private health system which I know most liberal elites in Canada find morally repugnant and likely believe such views are unacceptable. As such I use real world examples of it working and how Canada is an outlier here and if such a good idea at least a few countries would follow our lead. Otherwise while taking views unacceptable to them, it is done based on facts and rationale, not lies and falsehoods like we saw with many anti-vaxxers in convoy. And I think if we all took view liberal elite position as default one and want to take a different one, need to justify it, world would be much better place. After all they are the experts and while not perfect as still human beings, in most things in life we defer to experts. We have a mechanic fix our car, a pilot fly planes we take, doctor operate on us, engineer design buildings and bridges we use. Otherwise in everything else in life, we turn to experts so why should politics be any different? And usually if disagree we seek a second opinion not just dismiss it claiming they are a bunch of elites and not regular person. So this hatred of establishment and liberal elites I think is counterproductive. At times I cannot stand them, but also realize without them our society would be much worse off. After all it was intellectuals not regular people that helped create democracy and our modern secular liberal society. This is not to look down on average people, after all we lead busy lives and big reason we enjoy high standard of living is we all specialize in our areas of strength. So this is not saying they are better overall, just they specialize in such area so know more in that area just as each of us as individuals probably know more in our area of specialization. At same time I am torn whether liberal elites should be more respectful or still condescending. I do think they need to find ways to reach out to moderate centre-right types and make them feel their views matter and separate them from far right. Both Biden and Notley did this while some like Trudeau have not. At same time many right wing populists have such repugnant views that I honestly don’t know how you can respect them. I feel only solution is if family and friends, easy to find ways to help push them away as each individual unique, but that is hard to do at a societal level. And with each in own echo chamber I fear majority of such group don’t have family and friends from the more centrist or progressive side.

In summary, what is happening is disturbing and frustrating and I don’t believe will be good in short term. If anything positive comes from this, it will only be by one or more such countries seeing such massive hardship we learn hard way and I would rather avoid that. At same time it is clear what problem is, but how to end it is something despite being a political junkie I am stumped on.