As I have been doing every year for past six years here are my predictions. I do think this year will be another good one globally for right but in Canada much less so as despite some right wing gains in polls, we still unlike most have a progressive majority.
Canada
British Columbia: Predicting winner is easy part as short of of anything dramatic, NDP under David Eby should win an easy majority. Real question is who comes in second. I believe much of BC Conservative surge is more name confusion and once election gets under way, BC United rebounds to low 30s thus loses badly but still remains official opposition party. BC Conservatives flop at 10-15% once their extreme agenda exposed and may even finish behind Greens. NDP also in both seats and votes narrowly beats combined right too.
New Brunswick: NB Liberals led by Susan Holt win popular vote but PCs led by Blaine Higgs win more seats as PCs have more efficient vote. However Susan Holt still becomes premier as Blaine Higgs defeated on throne speech since he only wins a plurality of seats and the Greens join Liberals in voting down throne speech and then sign a supply and confidence motion. May also if only one seat shy have a huge speaker fight like did in BC 2017 and NB 2018.
Saskatchewan: Saskatchewan Party led by Scott Moe is re-elected but with a greatly reduced majority. NDP sweeps Regina and wins most of Saskatoon getting over 20 seats, but due to weakness in rural areas which is still majority of Saskatchewan, they come up short. Saskatchewan United comes in second in many rural ridings although does poorly in cities. Moe moves even further right to pander to them.
United States
President: This is a truly a toss up and really it is a 50/50. Trump have slight edge now but honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Biden won. This is probably toughest prediction of all on here making. Of Trump states from 2020, North Carolina is only one Biden has even an outside chance of winning, but that is a real long shot. Of Biden states, six are vulnerable. Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin most vulnerable while Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania slightly less so but still possible Biden wins all six of those and also possible Trump wins all six too. Any Trump pick ups beyond this or Biden pick ups beyond this only plausible if strong third party candidate and they hurt one side more than other.
House: Not sure who wins here but predict goes whichever way White House does so if Biden re-elected, Democrats re-take House. If Trump wins, GOP holds it.
Senate: This I am pretty sure goes Republican as Democrats will lose West Virginia for sure, likely lose Montana and Ohio. If things go badly for Democrats, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania could also flip. Florida & Texas are only ones Democrats even have a remote chance at gaining and both are really long shots and in fact in case of Florida almost near impossible. Texas is trending blue but still think a few more cycles before it flips. It is following similar trend to Georgia & Virginia but a decade behind Georgia and 2 decades behind Virginia.
Rest of Americas:
Mexico: Claudia Sheinbaum of Moreno, which is current party of current president wins becoming first female president of Mexico and also first Jewish one too.
Uruguay: Left wing Broad Front comes in first on first round, but then other centrist and right wing voters coalesce around National Party allowing them to narrowly win re-election.
Venezuela: Election as usual rigged and Maduro illegitimately wins again in a rigged election.
Asia:
India: BJP led by Modi once again wins another majority albeit slightly reduced but still solid.
Indonesia: Ganjar Pranowo wins here but don’t know a lot about local details.
South Korea: People Power Party gains control of legislature making it easier to pass laws as now party of president and legislature the same once again.
Taiwan: DPP wins both legislative and presidential
Oceania:
Australia: L/NP gains Northern Territory and Queensland while Labor holds Australian Capital Territory
Europe:
Austria: FPO comes in first and forms a right wing government with OVP meaning by year’s end, Western Europe has three far leaders (Austria, Italy & Netherlands).
Belgium: As usual a huge mess and some kind of grand coalition and who knows which party leads it. Right dominates Flanders as usual while Wallonia and Brussels both vote left as usual. Vlaams Belang on far right and Workers party on far left do better than past but both kept out of government.
Croatia: Centre-right HDZ easily wins re-election
European: Good for right with most right wing European parliament ever. EPP flat, ID and ECR gain, S&D loses a bit, Renew flat, Greens flat, while left also loses a bit.
Finland Presidential: Centre-right National Coalition comes in first, Greens second and in run off National Coalition (same party as PM) wins.
Germany: Three regional in Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg. Far right AfD comes in first in all three and whether form or not could have repercussions for 2025 election. All three in former East Germany where extremist parties tend to do better so more accepted in mainstream than in former Western states.
Lithuania: In one bright spot for social democrats, they win here in what will otherwise as has been most years another bad year in most European countries.
North Macedonia: VRPM centre-right comes in first and Albanian minority parties hold balance of power.
Portugal: PSD narrowly beats out PS and parties on right have a majority but coalition only possible if includes Chega which PSD has ruled out so either a grand coalition of some type or PSD breaks their promise and includes Chega. Unlike usual, expect it will take months to form government.
Romania: PSD (on left here unlike Portugal) comes in first but right wing parties back up PNL allowing them to form government.
Russia: If US is toughest prediction, then this is easiest. Putin re-elected in a massive landslide. Off course Russia has sham elections thus why so easy to predict as outcome already decided.
UK: While election isn’t scheduled until January 2025, no one wants a Christmas one so I predict go either this spring or fall. Labour gets a majority but less than 400 seats while Tories recover a bit and get over 30% and around 200 seats but still after 14 years in power are turfed and Labour returns. Starmer much like Albanese in Australia runs as a boring centrist, not an eccentric progressive like Trudeau or in past Ardern & Marin.
Other predictions in general:
Canada: Polls tighten and Tories by year end back in minority territory. Attack ads and popularity of new spending programs never mind lower interest rates help Liberals recover a bit but not fully. Also unpopularity of right wing governments provincially has slight negative impact on Poilievre.
Netherlands: Right wing coalition led by Geert Wilders formed but more fascistic ideas dropped. It is PVV + NSC + BBB with VVD providing support but not joining. Coalition competed around June.
Israel-Hamas war: Israel destroys Hamas but major humanitarian catastrophe. It occupies Gaza again but promises to leave once new government not run by Hamas is in place. Bibi despite horrible numbers remains PM and doesn’t call election even though lots of pressure including protests in Israel to call one.
Gay Marriage: Thailand becomes third Asian country, Greece becomes first majority Orthodox Christian country to legalize gay marriage.
afiscalconservativepointofview 
In terms of the UK election I do think labour could potentially win by a larger margin than people expect. Sunak reminds me of Theresa May a bit minus her strong connection with her constituency. Sunak seems better fit for a background role and I haven’t been that impressed with him lately. The amount of things he has had to deal with lately is insane though. I really do not know what type of campaign the tories will run but I have a feeling it will be a mediocre or disasterous one.
In terms of the US election I don’t think it will be as close as people think. US history isn’t kind to one term presidents that attempt to mount a comeback. Only two people have tried to mount a comeback and only one of them was successful, but that was like 131 years ago. No one else outside of cleveland and van buren has attempted to mount a comeback after getting kicked out of office in one term. I do think biden wins North Carolina because I have a feeling that trump will struggle in the polls and in terms of money once things start getting hectic. Trump will have to divide his time between fighting his 91 chargers and campaigning. I don’t think it will end up well for him.
I do agree with you on the three canadian elections. In terms of the BC election the BC Conservatives support will drop signifcantly once they start getting more attention and BC United will benefit from it even though they will still lose a lot of seats. BC United will stay as the official opposition in my opinion.
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For UK, I think what will happen as many lifelong Tories who are tired of party but cannot vote Labour will come home when clear they will lose. Same thing happened in 1997 when Blair started campaign with even bigger lead. Also Reform UK at 8% and much of that I believe comes back to Tories. Still lose however and a pretty bad loss too, just not quite as bad as polls say.
You may be right on Biden, but I don’t think you can dismiss polls. It seems after pandemic anger and openness to right wing populism has really gone up. Many who would have lost badly a decade ago now winning like Milei in Argentina, Wilders in Netherlands. North Carolina I think problem is Appalachia hasn’t seen Democrats crater as badly as they have in rest of Appalachia. In addition since 2008, each election close there but always comes up short so suggests very inelastic. Obama won narrowly in 2008 due to record African-American turnout which will be hard to repeat. But I don’t buy polls showing Trump with 20% African-American support, that is not happening. I would say 12% is probably his ceiling in that community and could go as low as 5% too. Logic says shouldn’t be close, but I cannot dismiss polls. One thing Biden may have going for him is economy is looking good and usually there is a lag factor as people don’t see benefits until 6-12 months later so if economy stays strong that could work in his favour.
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I think populists do well when they don’t really have much of a political background as we saw with trump 2016 and milei. Wilders is an exception to this because of how long he has been a politician. I just cannot see a former president with a horrific record plus nearly 8 dozen charges against him becoming president again. Add in the historical trends and it’s going to be difficult. Unless GOP donors are very open to giving possibly over a billion dollars to trump he’s screwed. Also some of that money might end up going to his legal fights. He won’t get obliterated by Biden but he will lose by a considerable margin.
I think Biden will be boosted by the state level races in NC and the ongoing urban and suburban trends in NC. I don’t think there will be another big shift in the trump parts of NC this year. I also think turnout will be lower compared to 2020 which will benefit Biden.
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We shall see, but I just cannot ignore polls no matter how much they don’t make sense to me. North Carolina is urbanizing but it is spread out over multiple smaller metro areas, not one large one like Georgia thus in some ways more akin to Florida. I agree turnout will fall but hard to say if benefits Biden or not. Historically low turnout benefited GOP but that may longer be case as Democrats now winning white college vote which has highest turnout. Still Trump got 47% in 2020 and came within 45,000 votes if in right states from winning so kind of shift needed for him to win electoral college (not popular vote) is pretty small. While I doubt many Biden voters will swing over to Trump, some of his support may be over economy as in 2018 and 2019 economy was doing well and while picking up again, worries of a recession and inflation are higher. Off course much of that is normal cycles, but politicians often get blamed or credited. I like you hope Biden wins, but I am far less optimistic than you are.
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Not discounting the polls either. I think the current polls might be a case of some people just parking their votes elsewhere until the end of the primaries. Trump and the GOP don’t scare me much because all of they care about right now is their greivances(i.e. trump’s legal issues) and the hot button social issue of the day. I do think the economy will continue to get better and the israel-hamas war will eventually move into the background. Biden won’t win by a historically large landslide if he wins but I do think their is a higher chance of trump getting below 46% of the vote than people think because of RFK, less favourable turnout and voters shifting a bit towards biden.
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I think one of two things is likely to happen
1. Right now polls show Trump tied or ahead due to huge undecided, but most undecided are Biden 2020 voters and on election day return home resulting in a Biden win.
2. The dissatisfied Biden voters from 2020 stay home and don’t vote at all allowing Trump to win. I think Biden 2020-Trump 2024 voters will be pretty insignificant and probably just as many Trump 2020-Biden 2024 voters so if he does lose more due to lower turnout amongst supporters not voters switching. Real risk is millennials as Biden has low approval amongst them, but most of them also dislike Trump.
At same time a really low turnout election could like midterms work for Biden as cohort with highest turnout is whites with a college degree and this cohort prior to Trump tended to favour the GOP, but now is firmly in the Democrat column.
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Biden definitely has his own weaknesses but at least the good thing is the guy that is running to beat him is as old as him and is obsessed with himself. If scenario 1 happens I think biden wins by as much as 8 points(possibly by more). The EC total wouldn’t be radically different from 2020 even in this scenario. NC would flip somewhat comfortably for biden in this scenario but nothing else outside of texas would be close to flipping.Trump’s ceiling in my opinion is 46-47 percent. I expect a lower turnout election because biden is meh and not scary while trump is god awful, but has a strong base. Whoever can take advantage of a potential lower turnout election wins in my opinion.
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Lower turnout prior to Trump I would have said benefitted GOP as demographics they are strongest amongst such as older voters more likely to show up than voters Democrats stronger amongst such as younger voters, minorities etc. However, college educated whites flipping to Democrats could mean lower turnout works in Biden’s favour like it has so far for special elections thus unlike a decade ago lower turnout could go either way. Certainly Trump’s base is quite motivated, but I also think strong desire to keep Trump out strong too. Low turnout though amongst under 40 is a worry as that cohort has a strongly negative view of both candidates. Older voters could also benefit Democrats if GOP promised to touch medicare and social security, but Trump unlike some others in party has been quite clear he won’t touch either. In fact only reason Obama won Florida in 2012 was Romney’s choice of running mate, Paul Ryan, who promised major overhaul of social security. Trump’s promise to not touch likely played big role in him winning it both times.
North Carolina, seems very inelastic so I think Trump likely wins it, but Biden pick up possible but realistically need very high African-American turnout like 2008 when Obama narrowly won it. Georgia is more favourable as you have one really large metro area whereas in North Carolina you have multiple decent size but not massive. Texas is trending Democrat and wouldn’t be surprised if closer than 2020 and Biden probably does better there than Florida, Iowa, and Ohio (all states Obama won both times), but I still think it is an election or two from flipping. Best case scenario for Democrats is Trump only wins it by 2 points. If that happens still good news as GOP has to spend a lot of money defending state so less time and money to go on offence.
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Miles, I sure hope Mohamed’s prediction about the US election prevails. I really believe that a second term of Trump will be a disaster for everyone, given what we already know about who he is and what he and his corrupt cabal are willing to do to grift money and power for themselves, regardless of the consequences for their country or for the world. Here in Canada, I hope we find our way past the growing extremism at both ends of the political spectrum and refuse to join the global drift towards authoritarianism that seems to tempt so many countries in our current troubled times. But I think for that to happen, we all have to leave our comfort zone and spend more time listening to others who disagree with us, and trying to find common ground. I am not sure that is happening very much on social media or in real life….
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I fully agree and I really hope Trump doesn’t win as agree it will be a disaster. It may mean democracy in US doesn’t survive or at very least will be pushed to its limit and lots of bad things will happen. Still I feel we live in an era where politicians that once seemed unelectable are winning. I agree we need to listen to those with different viewpoints and in US sadly I feel polarization is gone too far. Canada is getting worse too and in some ways we are about 10 years behind US which is worrisome. Hopefully trend reverses itself in both countries soon.
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