Mulroney death, Nenshi runs for NDP leadership, and Durham by-election

As promised on twitter here are my thoughts on Mulroney’s passing and his legacy. I was in Japan when it happened and got news when I woke up in the morning about his death. I have long been a fan of Mulroney and have long wished current Tories could have a leader more like him. He was a leader with a long term vision and not afraid to take unpopular stances in order to ensure a more prosperous Canada long term. GST and Free trade but especially GST are examples of this as GST was very unpopular yet economically Canada is better because of it. I have long argued we should have higher sales taxes while lower income and corporate. Unfortunately that would be a tough political sell thus why no politician will go there today. He also privatized several crown corporations and reformed our tax system to make it more competitive by lowering rates for all incomes but cutting out many loopholes, especially those used by wealthy (unlike Trudeau he dropped top rate but many wealthy paid more due to fewer loopholes). But it wasn’t just on the conservative side, he also did some good things on progressive side such as his strong opposition to Apartheid in South Africa even when Reagan and Thatcher were afraid to go there and signing of Acid Rain Treaty with US. He was also a staunch defender of Israel and as recently as past November give a strong speech in their defence as he understood history of persecution Jews faced and why it was important they had their own state and could live in security. He was likewise one of Canada’s greenest prime-ministers which were be hard to envision today for any Conservative PM. He did make some mistakes as all PMs do and certainly the political capital he spent on Meech Lake and Charlottetown Accords really hurt him especially in Western Canada where led to rise of Reform Party. Still on balance I believe he was a good PM. He had a strong long term vision and also it was not an ideologically driven one, but more focused on how can we make Canada more prosperous. Some complain too slow on deficit reduction, but fact is despite massive deficit when he left, there was an operating surplus and it was high interest rates leading to massive deficit. His policies of free trade and GST made it possible for Liberals in 90s to balance budget. I feel like his death is not just death of him, but death of long term principled visions based on building a more prosperous society not a certain ideology. That type of thinking is what we need but sadly feels like it is dying and his death may signal the death of that type of leadership which would be very unfortunate.

In other news Naheed Nenshi is running for NDP leadership in Alberta. This will definitely shake up race and I think he has a chance but also many obstacles. Not being a long time NDP member will no doubt hurt him amongst some NDP members but at same time many also realize they cannot win in Alberta just appealing to base. He is from Calgary which is where elections are won and lost and he is reasonably moderate. In his opening he focused on things like entrepreneurship which is not something you typically expect from NDP. In many ways it seems he wants to make party a big tent anti-UCP one that spans from your socialists on left to Red Tories on right. And simple math shows to even have a chance in Alberta you need to unite that cohort. In terms of winning leadership, I think it is too early to say. He may have a chance, but may fall short. In general election, it is also too early to say, but I do think if Poilievre is PM nationally that will make it easier than if Liberals are still in power. I feel dislike of Trudeau is one of the big things saving UCP for now in Alberta and if Trudeau was no longer PM, Albertans would be more comfortable going NDP provincially. When Notley won in 2015, Harper was still PM and I cannot help but think had Prentice waited another year results may have been different. Ontario has a long history of voting opposites and while Alberta may not, I do feel having one progressive government countered by a conservative one at other level they are more open to than having progressive ones at both levels. Still I do think he could win next general election but like most recent one path is quite narrow as means running the table in Calgary and winning odd seat outside two cities like other Lethbridge one and maybe a few more in the donut around Edmonton. Around 38 seats in Rural Alberta are locks for UCP thus why need to not just sweep Edmonton as they will but also dominate Calgary. Don’t need to sweep latter, but have to win overwhelming majority, not just slim majority as Notley did in 2023.

Finally there is Durham by-election where Tories won as expected but margins do suggest polls are accurate. Tories won big which suggests dissatisfaction with Liberals is quite strong while Liberals did quite poorly and so did NDP. I actually thought Liberals would improve on 2021 showing simply because they were bringing out many cabinet ministers and you don’t do that unless you think you have a shot so that suggested to me internals for Liberals must have been better than national numbers suggested. But in end that was not the case and makes me wonder why the heck were they bringing out so many cabinet ministers. In past, usually you avoid campaigning in no hope by-elections due to fact it looks bad when you lose badly so you don’t even try in those. While it is just a by-election and yes turnout was low so possible many Liberal and NDP supporters stayed home as Tory ones more motivated to show up. But at same time shift more or less aligns with polls so for Liberals dismissing polls as fake, I am afraid they are probably right. And continuing to bury head in sound is how you will lose badly. But judging by behavior since I don’t see any shift in party. I am guessing either they are hoping lower interest rates and improving economy plus Trump win will save them or they know they are going to lose but feel they are right so will continue to double down in hope history vindicates them (unlike with Mulroney I am less sure that will be case but like anything will have to wait to see for sure).