European elections

A lot has happened in past month in Canada, US and Europe so this blog will focus on European, next blog on American, and then finally back home in Canada. In Europe three major political events which were EU elections, British and French elections.

European elections

The far right did gain as expected but not quite to extent some feared. Parties on centre-right and centre largely held their ground while centre-left dropped slightly. Greens took a big hit so overall European parliament shifted to right as most European countries have in recent years but less dramatic than some thought. Since real power lies with European commission who are appointed by national governments and council of ministers who are members of national governments, European parliament’s impact on people’s day to day lives is much less than national. But not irrelevant either, but because less it is probably fair to say a fair number were protest votes to send a message to national government as opposed to genuine. How many were protest is tough to say but likely were some. Despite this we can still make a few observations.

1. Rise of far right shows concerns about immigration are real and both EU and national governments will have to find a way to deal with those concerns.
2. Trust in experts and establishment is in decline and being condescending, saying voters wrong or ignoring it won’t fix that. Doesn’t mean giving into crazy conspiracy theories but does mean things like cost of living and concerns people have are ones governments need to pay attention to
3. Big drop in Greens shows unlike 2019, cost of living is a much greater priority than climate change. If we want to avoid worst of climate change, leaders are going to have to find ways to deal with issue without making life less affordable. When choice is between saving the planet and having enough money to pay for basics, people will for most part choose latter. Doesn’t mean give up on dealing with climate change, but it means may need to try different methods that don’t make life more expensive for middle and working class.

British election

While European least consequential, British and French were much more so. Ironic that three European countries I have visited (Belgium, France, and UK) all had elections within a month of each other and just before or while abroad. British one on July 4th as expected resulted in a landslide Labour majority, Tories having worst showing in over a century and Liberal Democrats best in over 80 years. But despite that, results were wildly disproportional and no doubt those for proportional representation will use this election as reason to push for it. Labour got barely 1/3 of popular vote yet 2/3 of seats. Also only 2% more than 2019 which was a disaster for them while this a landslide. They also got 6% less than 2017 which they lost. Reform UK got 2% more than Liberal Democrats yet only 5 seats while Liberal Democrats got 70. Still despite this I remain opposed to proportional representation. This was an anti-Conservative election not pro anyone so you had lots of tactical voting amongst centrist and left wing voters to stop Tories thus why got results you did. Below is summary of each party

Labour: Won big in seats but only got 34% of popular vote which is well below what they started campaign with. So hardly a resounding mandate. More a combination of vote splitting on right and votes being in right places worked in their favour. Also whether Starmer’s decision to move to centre was a wise or not is less clear. Yes party won big so suggests it was right move, but fact only 2% more than Corbyn in 2019 and 6% less than Corbyn 2017 does suggest perhaps UK is becoming more polarized. Still I believe moving to centre was right move in that in small cities, mid sized cities, suburbs, and rural areas; Labour vote generally went up and those areas tend to not be keen on left wing politics. Also split on right likely wouldn’t have happened with a more left wing leader as I found left and right more likely to coalesce behind one party when opponent is extreme vs. moderate. In urban cores it dropped, especially those with lots of young people and even more so if large Muslim population. Young people in urban cores undoubtedly preferred a more left wing vision thus why Labour fell there but they won those areas by massive margins anyways so could afford it and if anything this shows left wing policies very popular in pockets but centrist more evenly spread out. Other one was in constituencies that were over 20% Muslim, Labour saw massive drop in support, often more than 30%. Even lost a few to Independent candidates. This was largely over war in Gaza and some feeling Starmer was too pro Israel. This is in many ways concerning; not Starmer’s stance on Israel, but fact for much of Muslim community war in Gaza played a greater role in how they voted than issues like cost of living, NHS, economy etc. And considering very few British Muslims are Palestinian thus no family and friends there, does suggest some may not be integrating that well. I don’t know solution here, but if UK wants to avoid rise of far right, there needs to be better integration and more social cohesion between groups.

Conservative: Disastrous showing but in some ways a relief as many expected worse. In fact many predictions predicted Tories would fall below 100 seats which didn’t happen. Still party has got a lot of rebuilding to do. Tories + UK Reform got 38% and over 40% in England so its not like right doesn’t still have lots of support. This was less ideological and more fatigue of a government in power for 14 years. Still fact Tory and UK Reform support heavily skews towards seniors while two parties did horrible with under 35 does suggest right could have trouble down the road if they cannot find ways to better appeal to millennials and Gen Z. Much like Labour, whether to move right or closer to centre is unclear. Winning back UK reform vote could make them competitive, but correlation between Conservative support and UK reform was weak and bigger predictor was how people voted in Brexit referendum in 2016. UK reform did quite well in many seats in North Tories usually struggle in. By contrast in their traditional stronghold of South outside London, it was Liberal Democrats not UK Reform who posed biggest challenge. So whichever route they take has pros and cons. My advice would be focus on policies to improve UK and also with Labour majority wafer thin, as long as they remain competitive, they should come back whenever people tire of Labour.

Liberal Democrats: Best showing in over 80 years, but share of popular vote barely increased and they were largely a beneficiary of tactical voting, primarily in South of England and posh parts of London so whether this holds or whether they swing back to Tories and Labour remains to be seen. With most of Labour’s worst showings being in seats that voted Liberal Democrat, that makes clear a lot of their votes were more anti-Tory than they were pro Liberal Democrat. However, with more seats will get more attention so could use this to build their support, but with much of their vote being tactical vs. genuine their support is quite frail.

SNP: They got a huge drubbing and lost almost all their seats in Middle belt to Labour being once again reduced to more rural fringes where strong prior to 2015. This is probably a strong warning for devolved government of people’s dissatisfaction with SNP.

Reform UK: Got 14% and won five seats so does show reducing immigration and right wing populism have some support in UK, but not quite to extent as in continental Europe. Still support was heavily correlated with how people voted in 2016 Brexit referendum. Generally topped 20% in areas that voted over 60% leave and often got in single digits in areas that voted over 60% remain. Unlike right wing populists in mainland Europe, their support is very old, probably a reflection of how most young people opposed Brexit, so may have less bright future than many in mainland Europe who do well with younger voters.

Green Party: Won 4 seats and got 7% of popular vote. In fact amongst under 35, they came in second behind Labour so a lot of their support were likely your urban under 35 types who preferred a more boldly progressive vision than a centrist one.

Plaid Cymru: They gained in Wales and much like SNP loss in Scotland so probably more a reflection of the devolved government’s popularity. Interestingly enough, unlike past elections where support largely limited to Welsh speaking parts; they made gains in English speaking parts although still finished well behind Labour.

Independents: There were five elected and four were Muslim candidates in heavily Muslim constituencies who won largely on single issue of Gaza. Other was Corbyn who lives in a very left wing area where his views are popular even if toxic in much of UK.

French election

Moving across channel, Macron boldly called an early legislative one after European elections. Seemed like a bold headed move and it was. Yes his party did better than some thought and far right failed to win, but his party, Ensemble still lost its majority. Much like UK, this was example of tactical voting and voter efficiency since in second round, far right RN got 37% of popular vote but 3rd in seats, left wing NPF got 25% of popular vote but first in seats albeit a minority while centrist Ensemble got 24% and 2nd place in seats. Much as UK was an anti-Tory vote, this was a battle between the pro RN who were 37% of population and anti-RN. In fact centrist and left wing candidates dropped out in most constituencies if came in third in first round and encouraged their voters to vote for other. So yes successfully stopped far right, but now National Assembly is a mess and forming a stable government will be near impossible. Having a common enemy but little in common only stops common enemy; doesn’t lead to a stable government. PCF and LFI parties in NPF coalition have very extreme views on left and including them in any governing coalition is a non starter just as including RN is. Realistically the more moderate parties in NPF of EELV (Greens) and PS would work with centrist Ensemble and centre-right LR as that would produce a narrow majority but very unstable. More worrisome is centre only holding up due to strength amongst seniors. Amongst under 50, most going to extremes with Gen X favoring far right and Millennials and Gen Z more far left but sizeable minority far right. How to combat extremism is not something I have answer to but if France does not find a way it could have serious consequences not just for France but entire EU as France is second largest economy in EU.