Last month has had a lot going on in the United States and we are now just over a 100 days until voting. Below are my thoughts on recent events there.
First off Biden had a horrible debate and this was what set in motion his eventual decision to not run again. I was in Africa during debate so due to time change missed it but saw clips and also reviews were near unanimous that Biden showed marked cognitive decline. It is clear he has declined cognitively and so has Trump in last 4 years which is probably to be expected at that age. However, his close advisors who likely knew this I blame most for not trying to do something about it and instead hide it from everyone. Trump as usual lied throughout debate but with Biden not being able to effectively counter those, it was clear Democrats needed someone else. After that, pressure started to build for Biden to step down and I think it was only a matter of time until he did. Part of reason I held off blogging on this until now is I heard rumors he was going to step down on the weekend and while not sure if correct or just rumors, I wanted to wait just in case.
Later on there was an attempted assassination on Trump and came dangerously close to killing him. Had bullet been six inches to right he would have died. Real question is why this even happened as security for former presidents and candidates should be strong enough that this won’t happen. Secret service needs to review their current security measures and perhaps put in place more to ensure this doesn’t happen again. As for motive, that is hard to say as shooter was a registered Republican but had donated to progressive causes. Most likely he was a mentally unstable one much like attempted assassin of Reagan and murderer of John Lennon but I am sure as investigation continues we will get more information. I despise Trump, but I totally oppose political violence. Ballot box and elections are how you defeat someone you dislike in a liberal democracy, not use of violence. Had the assassination succeeded, I think it could have led to civil unrest and more importantly sent signal killing politicians you dislike is solution when it is not. Political violence must always be condemned full stop, even for politicians you strongly dislike. Unfortunately while I would hope this would lead to toning down the rhetoric, I really don’t see that happening. Thus why it is essential in this more polarized environment secret service step up their level of protection for both presidents and presidential candidates. Murder of Abe in Japan, which is last country you would think of for political violence shows no politician is safe sadly in this day and age and so security must rise to occasion due to heightened risk.
Trump chooses JD Vance as running mate which while no surprise, suggests he wants someone who will toady up to him not offer something to offset his weaknesses. JD Vance was once a Never Trumper and even reasonable back in 2016 but like many Republicans has gone off the rail since and now totally sucks up to Trump. I doubt him being chosen helps Trump, but probably doesn’t hurt much with MAGA base who would be just fine if he had to take over in event Trump is no longer able to execute his duties as president.
Finally Biden has bowed out which was the right thing to do. Reality is with Biden, none of the 25 states Trump won he had a realistic shot of gaining, almost certain to lose Arizona and Georgia and probably Nevada too while slight underdog in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and Biden needed to win all three to maintain white house. In fact things were getting so bad that states like Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia were even in play and Trump had better odds of flipping those than Biden did of holding Arizona and Georgia. It looks near certain Kamala Harris will be nominee and probably to avoid divisive convention not a bad idea. Still who she chooses as vice president will be key. Most polls show she is not overly popular and seen as too progressive so while I think she has better odds than Biden did, I still feel even with her Trump is still the favorite. She needs to choose a centrist and preferably someone from Rust Belt like Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro or someone from a swing or red state like Andy Bashear, Mark Kelly or Roy Cooper. Left wing politics just don’t sell in US so she needs to appeal to center and that can be done with correct choice of running mate and also big focus on her time as prosecutor in California. She was a former prosecutor so she can show she has strong law and order credentials which can work in her favor. Her biggest weakness is border crisis so she needs to promise strong action here to help reduce illegal crossings. I feel odds of Democrats winning much better now but still risk of Trump win is quite high. With Biden, Trump had 80% chance of winning, now it is down to 60% but still way too high. So Democrats over next 100 days or so will need to go really hard against Trump and make case why he is unfit for office. Also with more money flowing in, need to spend lots on down ballot too since it is essential to avoid a GOP trifecta and there is definitely a possibility of that happening. Debates will probably matter more than in past and with Harris sharper and Trump looking like the older senile one as well as past prosecutor; a good showing in debates will be essential for her to pull ahead, which can be done.
afiscalconservativepointofview 
I am relieved to hear that you like Harris’ chances better than Biden’s, but I agree with you, the Dems have plenty of work ahead to ensure Trump is not the next President of the US. And Biden and his family and his advisors made the campaign even more work than it should have been already, first by deciding he should run again when he shouldn’t have, and then by taking too long to face the reality that he could not do the Presidency and a campaign at the same time. I think these party and leadership failures have perpetuated a long history of poor party renewal and weak leadership succession on both sides of the aisle over the past decade – bringing us Trump in the first place on the Republican side, along with Clinton who carried too much baggage on the other, leading to Trump’s success the first time he ran.
I don’t think we really know what Biden’s cognitive abilities truly are, as we have never been given a clear account of a through cognitive assessment on him – or on any Presidential candidate ever, as far as I know. We just don’t know, and that has become the problem for voters in the case of all of the candidates, including the would-be spoiler Kennedy. In Biden’s case, his recent visible downturn may be about things other than his actual day to day cognitive capacity. It could be that the combined strains of competently executing the President’s role (which Trump never did), campaigning, and absorbing the implications of Hunter’s conviction for his family, were just too much for him at this age, which could mean he is medically frail to some extent, but not necessarily senile. Certainly, Biden has clearly verbally stumbled in public many times, and his debate performance was a debacle. At the same time, he nimbly sparred with rude Republicans during an impressive State of the Union, and he has governed in a very capable way. He has negotiated an impressive legislative record at a time when Congress is in chaos, and even got both parties to craft a bipartisan bill on immigration that he would have signed, if Trump hadn’t successfully got his enablers to delay it for his own political purposes.
So I think whether you agree with all of Biden’s policies or not, it’s hard to see where his political judgement or conduct as President has failed Americans. None of this changes the fact that he should have stuck to what he originally said he would do – be a bridge (one term). But the fact that he tried to run again is on him but also on his family and his team and his party, just like Trump, a much more disastrous choice for the US and the world, is on his family, his team and his party.
I think Obama’s election in 2008 and re-election in 2012 was a ray of hope for US democracy, but it was also a signal to both parties that Americans hungered for younger generational leadership. I think the Dems’ failure to nurture the next generation of leaders regionally and nationally during Obama’s tenure, along with Clinton’s failure to see the importance of paying attention to the disillusioned “fly over” states, led to Trump’s election. Then Biden’s failure to honor the transitional role he promised to play led to the Dems’ current situation, while the Republicans’ failure to deal with Trump led to the literal failure of an ethical conservative party alternative. Of the two parties, only the Dems with Harris now seem to even offer hope for renewal of their democracy and their country. I hope she and her party and voters can rise to the moment for all our sakes….
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Largely agreed. I think just in general, when someone is in 80s won’t have same stamina as when younger and being president is a very stressful job even for someone younger. Look at how much Obama aged during his 8 years so if you take the job seriously like Biden did, it will take its toll on you. I’ve heard a president works around 14 hours every day so its a very tough job.
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And can I just also add, in although we don’t know what either Biden or Trump’s ongoing cognitive conditions actually are, we do know which party has consistently offered candidates with defensible records of actual, on the record conduct and character, and which party has now offered three times in a row a candidate with on-the-record fatal flaws in his character and his conduct. If voters do elect Trump again, I think we have to conclude the US is forfeiting hope of either leading itself or the world in any credible manner.
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If Trump wins looks bad on US, but seems much of the world is seeing right wing populists rise of alarming levels and only places holding them back is where centre-right is in power. Centre-left for whatever reason (and I say as someone who is centre-right) seems to be doing poorly practically everywhere and not sure understand full reason, but does seem right now much of the globe is very much in a right wing mood and perhaps most right wing we’ve seen in generations.
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