Update in Canadian politics

Given an update recently in European and American so here are my thoughts on recent Canadian political events. The biggest one is Toronto-St. Paul’s by-election where Conservatives pulled off an upset in a normally very safe Liberal riding. Also a few other topics both provincial and federal.

Toronto-St. Paul’s win by Conservatives was a massive upset. This is a riding Liberals held even in the 2011 disaster and last time it went Conservative was 1988. Back then party was much different than today and also centre-right parties tended to do well in upper middle class urban ridings whereas today those have not just in Canada but throughout Anglosphere and even beyond swung left. And with NDP very weak, no vote splitting on left so for Tories to win this shows just how much trouble Liberals are in. Yes Tory voters were more motivated to show up and some Liberals lending their vote to Tories in hopes it would push Trudeau out was probably part of it; but still even if Liberals do regain riding in 2025 (and I think they will) this should set off alarm bells in PMO and LPC headquarters. Some were due to local factors as riding is 15% Jewish and recent anti-Semitic protests and Liberals seeming to be supportive of anti-Israel side no doubt hurt them as well as capital gains tax hike since this is a fairly well off riding. Liberals went on idea only 0.13% would be impacted which is true in any given year, but it is estimated 5% will be impacted at some point in life as not same people every year. More importantly when you raise taxes on rich, its not just those earning that who will be upset; anyone whose goal is to earn that will be too and lets remember there are many people who still aspire to make that amount of money even if not all will succeed. However while those two may be issues that won’t apply to all ridings, usually Liberals win this by big enough margins that at best this might push Tories from usual 20s into 30s, but Liberals would still win here. Fact Tories got over 40% and won shows at best this just might have pushed them over the top, but they were already doing better than normal.

At this point, it is clear to me and most others that Trudeau needs to resign much like Biden did. Barring some miracle, he is not going to win the next election. While I am no fan of him, if he left now he could leave on a positive note as he does have a strong legacy. Be it CCB which cut child poverty in half, aggressive climate change action, handling a Trump presidency, getting us through pandemic better than most, $10 a day daycare, dental care for millions, and pharmacare are all accomplishments. Longer he stays on, better the odds of a Tory supermajority and more likely some future Tory government will undo those. Changing leaders may not save party, but keeping him means near certain defeat while changing at least gives Liberals a fighting chance. Or even if cannot win next election, at least holding Tories to a minority is a partial victory as it would severely limit what they can do. Thus his decision to stay on suggests he doesn’t get message and caucus is either too afraid to push him out or shares his delusions.

In other news, polls in BC are surprisingly tight with BC Conservatives having an actual shot at winning. I still think BC NDP will pull off a much reduced majority, but this shows they are vulnerable and many want change. By same token BC Conservatives remind me a lot of federal party in 2004 election where surged into first place but once under greater scrutiny fell back. Any party needs time to develop policy and build up strong organization which BC Conservatives have yet to do. Still with how upset people are, I wouldn’t rule out them winning even though I think most likely they dominate interior and Fraser Valley and perhaps gain in rural Vancouver Island. But I think in Lower Mainland they will underperform what BC Liberals did in past thus fall short. I still plan to vote BC United as while some will say I am splitting the vote, I feel they have best plan and I am not comfortable with a BC Conservative government, especially not if Poilievre becomes PM. I am no fan of Eby, but I worry a lot about right wing populism, even more so than left wing politics as latter is much easier to correct as Gordon Campbell did 20 years ago than former which US hasn’t been able to fix after Trump. So I will only go BC Conservative once they have had more time to develop and if I feel they are a big tent pragmatic moderate centre-right party. With election only 86 days away, I feel this is too short a timeframe to do this.

Doug Ford has decided to accelerate sale of booze in corner stores and that partially contributed to LCBO strike. I think accelerating it by 16 months which will cost $225 million is a waste of money that could be better used elsewhere. While Ontario may look odd compared to most jurisdictions outside Canada (contrary to what Ford says most provinces don’t allow booze in corner stores, only two currently do) its really a low priority. Never mind studies in recent years have shown alcohol is more harmful than we previously thought. With our health care system on the brink, we should avoid doing things that will strain it more. So its why I believe it is essential if done minimum prices be raised off set potential increase in consumption. More convenience reduces time cost of buying booze, so to offset that need to raise monetary prices. As for LCBO strike, I think idea of government liquor stores is a throwback to prohibition, but at same time its not something I feel too strongly about. Yes LCBO probably should be privatized, but I would rank it far down the list of priorities government should focus on. Maybe if economy going great, health care having low waiting times it would be something worth pursuing but again it should be at bottom of list of things to do. Yes government can do multiple things but still I would like to see premier and finance minister focus on more important things. Better make some backbencher a junior cabinet minister to handle alcohol reforms. For alcohol reforms I think better one would be allow private specialty stores to open to offer products LCBO doesn’t as well as with modern technology create a system whereby restaurants can order directly from supplier and bypass LCBO while still giving the government their cut as this could help struggling restaurant industry offer more variety. That being said I don’t think if OLP or NDP win they should reverse this if win in 2026. Instead raise minimum prices and perhaps ban sale at gas stations and allow neighborhoods where crime a real issue to ban it. Also should ban it at corner stores with 300m of a school and/or drug/alcohol treatment center. I do however think in addition to corner and grocery stores, private standalone liquor stores should be allowed like in BC to offer greater competition and selection. There would obviously be limits on how many so outlet density doesn’t get too high but I am more supportive of standalone private liquor stores than corner stores selling booze even though have no problem with latter.

Final one was Pierre Poilievre calling liberal drug policy wacko. While I don’t agree with Liberal policy on drugs, calling it wacko degrades conversation. Fact is supporting policy that establishment and experts are for is never wacko no matter what some on right may think. That doesn’t mean cannot critique it but do so on why you think not best. I do believe safe injection sites save lives, but at same time I feel experts look solely at impact on addicts and not wider community and I believe two need to be balanced. I wouldn’t advocate shutting down all safe injection sites, but I believe we have too many. Fact is where located will attract more drug dealers as that is where can sell most and some places where located have seen crime rise. Drug addicts usually have to steal to fund habit and that hurts others. Never mind hurts businesses nearby as many including myself wouldn’t patronize one nearby as feels unsafe. Too many for these ignore collateral damage. My view is we should have a two year moratorium on new sites and do a full review of current. Also perhaps a trial of one province say BC having them while a similar, say Alberta not and doing a comparison on data maybe worthwhile. Likewise going forward should be limited to urban areas exceeding 500,000 people as downtowns big enough they can have one without causing harm to whole downtown. By contrast for smaller should only be approved in exceptional circumstances and be temporary mobile ones not permanent in such cities. Downtowns in those too small that very difficult to not have collateral damage. And if many businesses go under that hurts economy and with fewer jobs that could make problem worse as people tend to turn to drugs we feel little hope in future. For all those saying science supports it, which I don’t doubt, they ignore fact death rates are rising not falling and Canada has 2nd highest illicit drug use per capita only behind the United States. That is not something to be proud of and our long term goal should be to reduce illicit drug use. That will take time and cost money but doesn’t mean we should look for short term like safe injection sites. Fact is while such sites may save an addict temporarily, one will die if they don’t break habit. And harm reduction success rate is only 1-5% which is pretty low. I prefer Portuguese model where drug users are arrested and go before a panel who will decide an appropriate treatment plan. It may mean doing nothing if not harming others but that seems more effective than just enabling the habit. I feel we use for illicit drugs too much of the carrot approach when I think we need to use BOTH carrot and stick approach. Yes help addicts and show compassion, but also have strong push to get them off habit. I realize not easy to quit but I have seen former addicts saying if these sites existed when addicts they would have never quit. In Europe where I am now, illicit drug use on average not much different than countries with such sites and those without. Biggest correlation is places with less sunlight in winter like Scotland and Nordic Countries are worst while Mediterranean are lowest. And even in countries with them, most have far fewer per capita. In UK now which has zero and has less crime and cities safer but similar to what Canada was like a decade ago.