BC United drops out

Kevin Falcon has announced BC United will be suspending its campaign and throwing support behind BC Conservatives. While not a huge fan of him or way party has gone, I think this was unnecessary and do worry about long term health of province. With Eby taking NDP to left and BC Conservatives more right wing than BC Liberals, I do worry the centre is being hollowed out. And while activists on both sides may welcome this, those concerned about future prosperity of province should not.

Party made two big mistakes which I thankfully voted against. First was choosing Kevin Falcon instead of Ellis Ross (I supported Ellis Ross). Kevin Falcon was a good minister under Gordon Campbell but as with anything in politics times change and I feel BC Liberals were too stuck in 2001 mode of thinking and not that of 2020s. Second mistake was to change name. Whether one liked or disliked BC Liberals, they had a brand name which has rock solid base of 30%. That is not enough to win but a good base to build upon and while I always thought winning in 2024 was a long shot; I feel had they chosen Ellis Ross as leader and kept name, they would be favorites in 2028. Many wanted to change name on falsehood that too many associated BC Liberals with Trudeau Liberals when truth is most see BC Liberals as a conservative not liberal party. Likewise word liberal may be a four letter word for hard right, but for most people it has a positive not negative connotation. Party still won in 2020 in Interior which is hostile to federal Liberals while struggled in Lower Mainland where federal Liberals do best. So I felt name an asset not liability. I hate to say but see I told you so.

I agree Eby needs to go and unlike in Alberta or Manitoba where I could have voted NDP, there is no way I can vote for a party led by Eby. Maybe Horgan if right too extreme, but not Eby. BC is running a $5 billion deficit when economy doing well and even bigger deficit than during covid. Yet health care is worst its ever been, cost of living at record highs, crime up, and only thing that seems to be growing is bureaucracy. We need a premier who will spend within their means which Horgan was willing to do but Eby is not. Likewise problems in other areas and unwillingness to make changes is why I cannot vote for Eby. I am normally weary of social democratic parties, but moderate leaders like Kinew of Manitoba, Notley of Alberta, Starmer of UK, and Albanese of Australia I can vote for if right goes too far off deep end (since centre-right in leanings wouldn’t vote for any if right moderate, only if too extreme). But Eby is a bridge too far for me. So some would say why not get behind the BC Conservatives then? Well problem is while I find Eby too left wing for my liking, I find Rustad too right wing for my liking.

I have elsewhere blogged about my concerns with right wing populism and distaste for hollowing out of centre. BC for a while looked to be bucking that trend as BC Liberals asides Campbell’s first term were quite moderate and in first term our economic situation required some radical changes to get things back on track. But at least those radical changes were done out of necessity not blind ideology. Likewise NDP under Horgan appeared to be moderating and that it had learned their lesson from the mistakes in 90s. I didn’t like his tax hikes, but at least glad he spent prudently and tried to balance interests of business and labour rather than leaning too heavily towards one. Likewise avoided the culture wars which I feel are just a distraction to major issues and only seek to divide population more. Unfortunately Rustad is no moderate. He thinks climate change is a hoax, he supported the convoy and anti-vaxxers during the pandemic and is hostile to transgender people. As such whomever wins, I feel BC is in for a rough time.

So the dilemma for me is do I vote for a party whose economic, health, and crime policies I strongly disagree with just to stop a right wing populist. Or do I vote for a right wing populist who may balance budget and cut taxes, but will introduce many other policies I strongly oppose. Since NDP is in power I have ruled them out while for BC Conservatives, unless during campaign they can show they have matured, I don’t think I can in good conscious vote for them. Bad economic policy can be fixed with right leader as Campbell did 20 years ago. Bad social policy like we are seeing with Trump is not so easily reversible. If BC greens still had Andrew Weaver as leader and BC United existed, there was at least a small chance of a minority government and both could keep other side in check. Unfortunately there isn’t that as BC Greens have moved left too so idea of getting a moderate government is sadly very unlikely.

In terms of impact, I actually believe it will be negligible. Fact BC United was imploding and BC Conservatives surging suggests voters already were uniting behind one side and few not on board like myself probably had reservations for good reasons. So unlike merger of PCs and Alliance 21 years ago federally or merger of Wildrose and PCs in Alberta, I am not sure this one will make that big a difference. May impact a few close ridings, but I think for now it still remains a tight race with slight edge for NDP. Unless polls change, I think a weaker NDP majority is most likely outcome. At same time this is a case of where campaigns matter as Eby and Rustad still somewhat unfamiliar to most in BC so I believe campaign not whether right unites or not will be biggest determinant of outcome. And even if lets see BC United voters do fall behind BC Conservatives, that doesn’t mean they will win as you have Greens on left and good chance many of them will strategically vote NDP in that case. After all the combined right vote in polls may exceed NDP, but still slightly behind NDP + Greens thus left still has narrow lead. You could even see like in UK & France recently where many on left strategically vote so BC Conservatives win popular vote but lose election as Greens do best in safe NDP and safe Conservative seats while implode in swing ones where voters coalesce behind NDP to stop them. In both countries mentioned, centre-left did much better in seats than topline votes would suggest thanks to strategic voting.

But asides this election, my worry both provincially and nationally is hollowing out of centre. I get why many prefer a more pure left or pure right. They give simplistic easy answers rather than complicated nuanced ones and in a world where people have short attention spans that tends to work. But reality is world is a complex place and its not black and white like left or right may wish. Instead nuances and compromises are essential for good government. Centrism is not lack of principles, its not being wishy washy; its understanding most issues are complex and that details matter. It likewise goes on idea you look at what works best, not what side of political spectrum a policy falls on. I think way we revive centre long term is making government once again about serving the people not advancing a particular ideology. Saying I want a centrist government sadly won’t win. But saying I am running to serve my country or province I think could. And I believe reason centrism was strong back in 90s is people ran with the purpose of serving not advancing a particular ideology. World has changed a lot since 90s so centrism would look much different but it still would go on principle of advancing policies that help people. Also compromise is not a dirty word, its how we keep our society united. It means all of us accept we won’t get everything we want, but moving in right direction even if not as far and fast is better than opposite. Hating your opponent and compromise is not a virtue despite fact many partisans take pride in that, it is a vice.

So in sum, I do not support the decision Kevin Falcon made and also believe its impact will be negligible. But either way much like nationally, I am politically homeless. Some may say I need to get with times and pick a side. But my counter argument is you should always demand better not settle for less. And I believe ideological left and ideological right parties do far more harm than good so I cannot in good conscious support either.