BC and other upcoming provincial elections

In next 11 days, three provinces will go to vote, BC, New Brunswick, and Saskatchewan. Below are my thoughts in each but main focus will be on my home province of British Columbia. Ironically BC is only one of two where I still haven’t made up my mind and don’t feel comfortable with either of the main options as I will explain.

Why Eby deserves to lose

I still believe Eby has done a lousy job and that BC needs a change in government or at least Eby is reduced to a minority government where Independents who were formerly BC United candidates/MLAs hold balance of power. Number one reason I want Eby defeated is the large deficits. After Horgan left province with a surplus, we are now running a $9 billion deficit which is the worst per capita of any province in Canada. We went from having the best balance to worst in country. And there is no plans to reduce it much let alone balance budget. In fact deficit now is higher than what it was during covid when it made sense to run large deficits. This will mean more downgrades making borrowing even more expensive and despite claims of both parties, eventually taxes will have to go up or spending cut. Our taxes are already high enough and I do not support further tax hikes since for lower and middle income, they are already squeezed enough with cost of living. For higher income they maybe can afford it but push even higher, gap between BC and Alberta will widen and we risk seeing more move there which will mean less not more revenue. Likewise with health care being largest budget line item, we cannot afford to cut it short of a radical overhaul and that is not possible to do as long as Canada Health Act remains in force. As such we need a premier who takes this seriously and has a plan to bring it down based on realistic assumptions, not idea growth will magically cover it over time. Issues like cost of living, drugs, crime, and health care also problems but those unlike deficit are not red lines for me. If Horgan were still leader, I would probably go NDP since as I will explain below BC Conservatives are not like former BC Liberals and I cannot support them. Greens not an option as their tax plans would drive BC into the ditch. They want a corporate tax rate of 18% on those earning over $1 billion which is a full 10% higher than Alberta. Good way to ensure those corporations leave the province.

BC Conservatives are not an acceptable alternative for me

Eby may need to go but that does not mean I am comfortable handing the reigns of power over to John Rustad. Party has far too many crazy candidates and fact they will not push them out is a major concern for me. Once you open the door to crazies, its only a matter of time before they take over. GOP under McCain and Romney had them in party even though neither of those two leaders were extreme and we all know what happened eventually there. I realize party is somewhat new and is going through growing pains but it needs to sort itself out before it can take the reigns of power. Federal Tories in 2004 faced same problem and thankfully lost in 2004. They dealt with those issues and thus were able to win in 2006 and govern reasonably. If BC Conservatives can fix things, maybe in 2028 will be ready to form government, but not now. But it goes beyond that and to fact leader believes in falsehoods. His stance on covid and pushing conspiracy theories as well as promise to fire Dr. Bonnie Henry is a disgrace. BC like all jurisdictions made mistakes during covid as it was a fast changing virus and leaders had to make decisions quickly based on information at time and what they thought best. Yes some looked wrong in hindsight, but I still believe on balance Dr. Bonnie Henry did a very good job of taking a balanced approach that kept people safe while keeping as much open as possible. Fact days businesses were closed was much shorter than Ontario & Quebec yet we had similar or better outcomes is testament to that. I hope we never have another crisis like that in my lifetime but when electing a premier, I want to know they will be ready to deal with such crisis and follow the best advice. Had John Rustad been premier during covid, our health care system may have collapsed and death toll likely would have been much higher. Also with much lower vaccination rate, our health care system would probably be in worse shape. If we some disaster like massive forest fires or a big earthquake, which are both very possible, I would not want Rustad in charge.

Finally there is his stance on climate change claiming it is a hoax. I supported the revenue neutral carbon tax that Gordon Campbell implemented back in 2009. But with loss of revenue neutrality and Trudeau botching it federally, I am totally fine with phasing it out (I believe scrapping immediately fiscally reckless due to $3 billion hole it would create so should be phased out over a term not dropped immediately). But that means finding some alternative. Rustad believes climate change is a hoax and if he cannot get his facts right, how can we trust him elsewhere? I believe in idea one is entitled to their opinion but not to their facts. If he said yes climate change is a reality but I don’t believe BC should make any effort to combat it, I could at least respect such view. Some may say its not wise but at least it involves accepting the facts.

Finally last but not least, BC Conservatives wait until after advanced voting is largely completed to release costed platform and it turns out there’s will lead to even bigger deficits than Eby and balancing budget in two terms goes on totally unreasonable growth predictions. If I criticize Eby for reckelss deficit, I cannot turn around and say Rustad’s is okay without looking like a hypocrite.

So in terms of how I will vote, I honestly do not know and with no independent option in my riding, I will make a last minute choice. However since all three options in my riding are not acceptable (NDP, Greens, and Conservatives), I plan to keep how I vote a secret as I don’t like any. If like Ontario we had the option to decline ballot or like most US states option to write a name in, I would use those. But unfortunately I do not. However, multiple ridings do have former BC Liberal MLAs and BC United candidates running as independents so if you are lucky enough to live in one of those, I would urge people to seriously consider them. They may not be able to form government but if a minority can hold the balance of power. Best outcome is a minority government with independents holding balance of power. They will force both parties to take deficit more seriously and prevent either from straying too far from centre. In terms of what I think will happen; I believe NDP wins another majority although slightly narrower than 2020. This has all the hallmarks of 2004 federally, Alberta 2012, and Ontario 2014 where it looked like governing party would lose but in end all three won as opposition had too many crazies so undecided voters heavily broke in favor of governing party saving them. This is less based on polls and more gut feeling as I don’t believe most in BC are comfortable with Rustad. BC Conservatives if more moderate could have beaten Eby, but I believe will probably get close to 40% and dominate BC Interior; I believe they will flop badly in Lower Mainland (maybe even worse than BC Liberals in 2020) thus preventing them from winning.

New Brunswick

With lack of polls there it is anybody’s guess what will happen but from what little I see, I think Liberals will win this but wouldn’t be shocked if PCs pull off a win. In this case, I would vote PC since while I have no issues with the Liberal leader Susan Holt (in fact unlike BC, I actually like both of the two main options); New Brunswick is one of only two provinces with a balanced budget and only province with a balanced budget without relying on high oil prices (other is Alberta who if oil prices weren’t so high would be in deficit). With fiscally responsible leaders being a rarity today not just in Canada but around the globe; I believe the few who are ought to be rewarded. If we start punishing fiscally reckless while reward fiscally responsible, hopefully we will see politicians take fiscal responsibility seriously.

Saskatchewan

There are slightly more polls here but not a lot but most seem to point to Saskatchewan Party winning another majority, but much tighter than past three elections. NDP likely dominate two cities, while Saskatchewan party rural areas. Today Saskatchewan probably rivals Alberta as most conservative province in Canada so fact NDP is competitive shows centre-left parties can win in all parts of Canada and we are not swinging sharply to right as some like to think based on federal polls. Here I would vote NDP as I believe Saskatchewan Party has become stale but more importantly NDP is very pragmatic unlike Trudeau or Eby. They promise to balance budget and promise no tax hikes of any type. And their focus is on core areas of government like health care while helping people on pocket book issues. Rather than being social justice warriors like Eby or Trudeau, Carla Beck has a down to earth plan to improve lives of residents and in many ways is a lot like Wab Kinew in neighboring Manitoba who has done a good job. Going forward I would like to see centre-left parties have more leaders like Beck and Kinew and less like Eby & Trudeau. I am not a natural NDP or even Liberal voter, but when party offers a pragmatic plan, they should be rewarded as I know right of centre parties won’t always win and its important centre-left alternatives be reasonable. If moderate ones win and more ideological lose, over time you will see others move to more moderate. Now yes some of this is just basic math as in Saskatchewan like Alberta but unlike most provinces uniting federal Liberal and federal NDP vote is not sufficient; you need some crossover from federal Conservatives to win. But whatever the reason it is right way to go. My guess is Moe gets re-elected but Saskatchewan party has worst showing since 2003 winning even fewer seats than they did in 2007 when first came to power. NDP likewise has best showing since 2003. Main problem for NDP is demographics as they are largely irrelevant in rural areas and Saskatchewan is a lot more rural than most provinces. Ultimately NDP will only start winning more often when Regina + Saskatoon grow enough to have more people than rest of province combined. That is not case now but with two cities growing while rest of province declining it may happen at some point.

After all three elections over, I will do a blog on results while also then it will be time do another one on the US election. For US election I think it is pretty much a 50/50. Of 7 swing states, Trump has slight edge in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina while Harris in Michigan while Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin pure toss ups. Still all seven are within the margin of error so not impossible either one sweeps all of them. Senate likely goes Republican as no real prospect of pick ups (Florida and Texas best options but both are real long shots) while West Virginia for sure and probably Montana turn red. Ohio is still a tossup and if Harris underperforms polls could lead to surprises in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. House is a toss up and likely goes whichever way White House does.