Provincial Elections and US election

We have just had three provincial elections with two resulting in incumbents being narrowly returned and another with change in government. Nova Scotia will came later so will blog on that later but unless something dramatic happens likely a Progressive Conservative landslide. Below are my thoughts on the outcome and what if anything it means for federal politics. Finally I will give my preliminary predictions for US election which I may change if anything happens at last minute to shift things in favor of one candidate.

BC election

BC election was close and in fact even closer than I thought. I am not surprised NDP won but I thought margin of victory would be slightly more comfortable than it was. Still I think slimmest of NDP majority is best outcome as avoids having to rely on Greens who are further left for support and also closeness hopefully forces party closer to centre and gets Eby to take crime and deficits more seriously than currently is. Often fear of losing can be a powerful motivator. At same time BC Conservatives were not yet ready to form government so now have four years to show they are ready to form government. Now this does not mean I voted NDP, far from it as a vote just says who you wish to win your riding not preferred overall outcome. I plan to keep how I voted secret as I felt all options were awful and since no independent candidate in my riding, my vote was done with my nose plugged.

NDP may have won and in vote total had one of their best showings but that does not mean its all good. Fact is they came dangerously close to losing to a party that was nothing more than a small tiny one four years ago and had its fair share of fringe candidates. If alternative was more moderate, good chance would have lost outright. In fact in areas north of Fraser River in Lower Mainland, it appears BC Conservatives massively underperformed BC Liberals suggesting that many federal Liberals who voted BC Liberal in past went over to NDP and that is what likely saved them. Also Greens falling too helped and I correctly predicted that would happen as for Green voters BC Conservatives were more scary than BC Liberals thus greater chance of strategic voting. So yes NDP won but they should take this as a warning and not get too complacent.

BC Conservatives made massive gains in such a short period of time and in some places like Surrey did surprisingly well. At same time I believe attack ads and extreme candidates likely cost them the election. Attack ads and fearmongering may not work as well as once did thus why wasn’t big late break against them as I suggested in earlier blog. But they still had some impact and probably just enough to keep them out of government. Some blame former BC United candidates who ran as independents, but I would argue failure to hold onto BC Liberal supporters bigger reason. They lost two ridings that went BC Liberal in 2020 and multiple that did in 2017 so had they won back all the ridings BC Liberals won in 2017 plus a few extra rural and Surrey, they would have won. Party needs to show they have a serious plan and look like ready to govern. They did a very good job of showing flaws with current government, but their plan as an alternative was not credible.

On a final note I notice on social media many are spreading lies of vote rigging and that NDP cheated. Those are totally false and I am glad all top people in Conservatives have squashed them and been clear election was free and fair. I have in past scrutineered and can testify first hand that Elections BC does a very good job and with scrutineers from each party any issues would be noted and if necessary used in court for judicial recount. MAGA type politics where you claim it was fraud anytime your side lose needs to stay out of Canada. It just weakens support for democracy and we don’t need that. Not blaming Conservatives where all official members have said it was free and fair, but blaming some right wingers on internet pushing lies. One claim was it took unusually long which is actually false. In 2017 it took even longer to get final outcome while in other elections, winner on initial count had big enough lead that final count didn’t matter. In fact in every election I have watched in BC, the time for final count was 2 weeks but only in 2017 and 2024 was it close enough that it could have potentially changed the winner even though some others did flip one or two ridings.

New Brunswick election

Unlike BC, this one did result in change of government and it wasn’t even particularly close. While Higgs held the rural Anglophone ridings, the urban Anglophone plus already weak support in Francophone parts cost him. For all those claiming policy 713 on trans rights was a vote winner; I think this should pour cold water on that as well as BC and Saskatchewan results. At best it had no impact, at worse maybe slightly negative. Most may believe parents should be notified of child but most also realize if a parent is transphobic, then maybe not appropriate and get the nuances. Still seems health care was main thing that defeated Higgs government. Holt seems reasonable and in fact her pragmatic centrist approach is one federal Liberals should consider post Trudeau. Her winning there doesn’t mean Trudeau will do well in New Brunswick but does mean liberal brand is not dead and with new leader and re-orientation they can come back. Also should be warning to Poilievre that if he wins a landslide as polls suggest; it is probably more Trudeau fatigue than an endorsement of a big shift right.

Saskatchewan election

Biggest news here was massive poll miss and probably biggest miss in over a decade rivaling those of BC 2013 and Alberta 2012. What is interesting is polls have by and large been accurate with other provincial elections so this was an anomaly not common miss. In final week NDP surged and polls suggested they would narrowly win popular vote. Instead, final results show them losing by double digits. Now in seats polls were largely accurate as Saskatchewan has a very strong urban/rural divide and NDP did indeed nearly sweep the two main cities. However outside those largely fell flat and Saskatchewan party winning margins were bigger than what polls suggested. With how rural Saskatchewan is, it is probably the toughest province for a centre-left party to win today. Ultimately it was the smaller cities, Moose Jaw & Prince Alberta which stuck with Saskatchewan party that cost the NDP and even had they won those would have only been barely enough. As for reason of big polling miss? It seems with rural areas pollsters consistently underestimate support for parties on right. My guess is with rural areas don’t divide enough. Using past poll by poll results I have noticed in towns they are somewhat closer than in villages, hamlets and farms where usually blowouts. And my guess is most being polled are in towns and they are missing those in communities under 1,000. In some provinces that group small enough only makes a minor difference but in Saskatchewan large enough that if you don’t properly poll them result can be way off. Also makes my worry about US results since if US pollsters make same mistake we are likely looking at a Trump win.

US election

With just one week to go it is still neck and neck and so close that I would not want to bet any amount of money on either outcome. I do though think of the seven swing states, one candidate will win 6 or maybe even all 7 rather than splitting evenly. Just a question of which one as usually polls even if within margin of error are slightly off just not way off like in Saskatchewan election. My gut feeling is Trump will win but admit I could see it going either way. It will be closeish but maybe not quite as close as polls say and both candidates have potential to outperform polls although neither likely to be a blowout. Below I will give reasons why I think each could outperform polls and sweep all seven swing states and maybe come close in a few beyond that.

Trump

Much like past two elections, polling the low propensity turnout voters who are big Trump fans but rarely show up otherwise has been a challenge. This group has such low trust in media and all institutions that they just don’t answer polls. Without Trump on ballot they generally stay home thus why red wave in midterms never materialized. But with him on ballot they show up. Pollsters have tried to correct for this but it is a tough one. Trump has gained amongst Hispanics and Black males and while Harris will still win both groups, especially latter by big margin. Trump closing gap even if large could be enough to flip states he needs. Finally amongst young voters, I am not sure Democrats have the edge they did under Obama. A lot of young males without college degree get their news mostly from right wing websites and are quite angry and thus find Trump appealing. Finally Trump came within 45,000 votes in 2020 of winning so you don’t need that much of a shift for him to win and considering economy is only just beginning to pick up it is not unreasonable to assume some Biden voters either go Trump or stay home. Not many, but you don’t need a lot. I think there is a high probability Harris wins popular vote, but on electoral college much less certain.

Harris

I do however think there is also a chance Harris wins by an even bigger margin than Biden did despite polls. This is first election since Roe vs. Wade and midterms and special elections have suggested turnout amongst women has gone up and thus could help Harris. On enthusiasm gap, they are largely equal not deficit like last two times Trump was on ballot. Also if turnout falls, quite possible that helps Harris rather than Trump. In past low turnout benefitted GOP but that was when college educated whites voted GOP. That cohort is group with highest turnout and they have trended Democrat while amongst MAGA base I don’t think enthusiasm is quite as strong so possible if some low propensity Trump voters stay home, Harris does better than expected. Likewise last minute things could have impact. Recent comment calling Puerto Rico a floating garbage island at Madison Square Garden Rally might just bring out more Puerto Ricans and this could be key in Pennsylvania which has large Puerto Rican community.

Still I think one certainty is Trump will claim victory no matter what happens and things could get ugly. If he wins, he will be a lot less restrained than first term and it will really test the constitution on its limits. I think house like presidency is a toss up but Democrats may have slight advantage but could go either way and likely goes same way as president. Pretty sure Senate goes GOP as West Virginia and Montana likely lost while Ohio and possibly others in danger. By contrast Florida & Texas only potential pickups and both real long shots and would require Harris outperforming.