What Trump win means

Now that Trump is elected, it is time to prepare ourselves from what is to come. Biggest thing that keeps me up at night over him as fact he is unpredictable and we just don’t know what will happen. Best case scenario he is a showman who does a lot of crazy talk but on actual policies does little unexpected. But while that is what we all hope happens, we must prepare for reality that things could get really bad and the worse case scenarios some laid out could come to fruition. I think big mistake left has made is always tried to say right would be apocalyptic if won and maybe worked earlier but when used over and over again people just tuned out so when real threat arrived people ignored warnings. Its like boy who cried wolf too many times. I will divide it into what it means for US, rest of world and Canada

United States

Below are what I think with each of the possible threats of a Trump win

Abortion

I actually think with how narrow senate and house will be, a national abortion ban is highly unlikely. Never mind voters are voting to protect right to choose even in solidly red states so while Trump may not care I think at worst you maybe see Lindsay Graham’s bill to ban abortions after 15 weeks nationally pass which ironically is the norm in most of Europe. Bigger problem is Supreme court as conservative likely gets entrenched with two older conservatives stepping down and being replaced by younger ones plus Sotomoyor maybe not making it. This means 6-3 or 7-2 so any hope of Supreme court holding him in check or future right wing governments is gone. It will come down to elections to stop that. At moment ballot initiatives at state level is where pro-choice advocates need to focus until they can get a trifecta nationally.

LGBT rights

GOP made trans bashing a staple and if a trans person, I suspect many are horrified. So it is scary time there, but 2004 election which was very similar in how bad it was for Democrats saw lots of anti-gay bills pass. Since then gay marriage has been legalized and most Americans are okay with it. But trans rights must change tactics if want to win. Gay people focused on we are your neighbors, friends, and co-workers and we just want same rights as you, nothing more nothing less. Trans need to do same while today largely many pushing radical ideas people not comfortable with like men in woman’s sports and man in female locker rooms. Progress is always a long winding road and you have to show people you are regular like them, it will not take anything away from them, and you nudge people along; not force something they are totally uncomfortable with.

Obamacare and other Social programs

There is slight chance Obamacare gets scrapped but closeness of house and fact midterms tend to favor opposing party means I believe it stays. For one thing GOP base today is much different than 20 years ago as it is far more working class so risk of scrapping it much greater than it would have been in 2012 when base was more upper middle class who already had private insurance and saw no benefit from it. Social Security may get underfunded but I actually believe it stays. In fact Trump unlike rest of party has been adamant that retirement age will not rise. I do think though some less known poverty programs that target very poorest may get axed but the big ones survive.

Deficit

With Trump’s promise in tax cuts this is going to get worse no doubt and real question is will bond holders eventually start to care or will they shrug their shoulders? I think Liz Truss budget that crashed pound has a non-zero chance of happening. Certainly budget likely even less fiscally responsible than that one. Only reason may get away is US is reserve currency so they can engage in fiscal irresponsibility no other country can get away with.

Climate Change

Trump is likely to do nothing here and any changes will have to come at state and individual level. In fact good chance EPA gets completely gutted

Gutting of departments

Depending on house results, I think good chance many departments like education, environment and others do get gutted especially with large deficit. Only thing stopping it is have to act fast as only have 2 years so I would say if not done by summer of 2026 then good chance survive but if done before it absolutely could happen. And if relying on filibuster to stop that, I expect GOP to do away with filibuster. In terms of firing civil servants and appointing ones loyal to him, I cannot speak for every department but I believe a large chunk will have Trump loyalists and not people fully qualified and certainly ones that he dislikes most.

Project 2025

Lots of scary stuff there and I believe some but not all of it will be implemented. Those that can be done via executive order have very high chance of happening whereas those that have to pass through congress somewhat lower but still some will. Main thing will be each requires individual bill so it will depend heavily on what bills introduced first and which ones take longer.

Mass deportations

Yes this will happen, no he will not deport all 12 million illegals. Reason not all 12 million will be deported is US simply lacks logistics to carry it out. But it will be in the hundreds of thousands maybe even 1 or 2 million. This will achieve bigger goal which is cut down on illegal crossings as fear of deportation will mean fewer. Also means if Democrats win real risk of another surge in illegal crossings so if win in 2028 must have plan ahead of time to prevent this. So for economist saying will damage economy, but I suspect damage less. And more importantly if employers decide to Americans instead of illegals that might even be a positive. But some jobs not enough Americans want to do and without increases in legal immigration, there could be harms to economy. But with Trump being a transactional person and GOP making big gains with immigrant groups maybe they will decide higher levels aren’t so bad for party long term.

Tariffs

This is area that could lead to higher inflation and possibly throw economy into a recession. Also if it hurts people’s pocket books, this just might be thing that leads to 2026 looking like 2006 midterms and 2028 looking like 2008 in presidential. This is actually biggest danger and could be exactly thing that turns away many of those who voted for Trump because upset about inflation and cost of living. Still since can be done through executive order I believe he will do it. Real question is will it be across board or will he just use that as bargaining chip to get other countries to agree to changes. Either ways this is probably 2nd most worrisome policy of Trump

Democracy

This is by far the scariest as most others while tough to reverse, especially with challenge of Democrats winning senate or at least ones if enough pushback could be reversed by a future administration. This one is most dangerous. US will not become a dictatorship overnight as no country goes suddenly from democracy to dictatorship overnight. Rather it will be a long gradual process but with Trump better prepared, more unhinged and Supreme court not willing to check him or party, I believe US in 4 years now will be less democratic than it is today. I don’t think it becomes like Russia, but being like Turkey under Erdogan or Hungary under Orban is a real risk. Trump’s age and constitutional inability to run for a 3rd term biggest barrier as both of those two in power for much longer. And allowing a 3rd term requires a constitutional amendment requiring 2/3 of states. As for Supreme court allowing it; they only rule conservative where there is slight ambiguity never where concrete and this is concrete with no ambiguity so Trump will be gone as president on January 20, 2028 no matter what.

What I think he may do is appoint a rabid loyalist to FCC. Networks like CNN and MSNBC who are critical of him; head will find some ridiculous reason to not renew their licence. After one goes off air, others will avoid criticism fearing same thing. It won’t be direct as that would be too obvious but he will try to ensure media is entirely friendly to him. Elections will still happen, but tougher voting laws to make voting harder, especially in communities that don’t vote GOP will likely be implemented meaning all things equal GOP will have advantage but Democrats can still win if opposition strong enough, just won’t be on equal footing. So GOP only becomes permanent party if backlash mild. If strong enough won’t be possible. Still chance of US becoming an authoritarian regime by say 2050 is a very real possibility as all moves to dictatorships are gradual so like lobster in boiling pot of water no one notices it until too late.

Impact Globally

Now moving abroad here are what I think Trump will mean for rest of world. US will become a more insular less free country and this will no doubt embolden dictators to go further. It will mean those fighting for freedom will no longer have an ally in US

Taiwan

Trump is mixed here so honestly no idea whether this emboldens Xi Jinping to invade Taiwan or his tough rhetoric stops it. This is worrisome but its not the biggest risk globally

Israel

Unlike many countries, most Israelis were happy to see Trump win. Whether he is good or bad for them is hard to say. He may get Saudi Arabia to sign Abraham accords which would be good in long run. But real risk he will give Bibi free reign to do whatever the Hell he wants. And since Bibi dependent on more extreme parties, re-establishing settlements in Gaza, fully annexing West Bank all very real possibilities. I don’t think a two state solution has any chance in next four years, but I think with Trump greater chance it becomes harder not easier beyond that. At same time his tough stance on Iran may cripple country and eliminate Hamas funding. And destruction of that would be a positive for both Israelis and Palestinians alike.

Europe

Trump is going to be bad news for Europe but Europe can survive if they smarten up. But that means stable governments not coalition wrangling like seeing now in Germany or instability in France. It means defence spending probably needs to go even higher as no longer can rely on US. And with EU taking action on deficits, countries are going to have to raise taxes or cut spending. EU also needs to work together and maybe with threat stronger you will see more unity here than have in past although I suspect Orban will be one outlier and off course risk other far right pro Putin types win. Baltics and Poland have most to fear as while not a likelihood, there is a non-zero risk one gets attacked and unlikely US comes to their aid. Still Russian military so badly beaten down may avoid this. I believe Moldova which is not part of EU or NATO is much bigger risk. Recent election despite Russian meddling voted for a pro-Western president but no chance joining NATO. As such them avoiding attack will probably mean expediting path to EU membership. Of all European countries asides Ukraine, I believe Moldova is most at risk. Georgia less likely as Russia succeeded in getting a friendly government through vote rigging. Russia doesn’t necessarily want to conquer all former USSR states; they just want pro Kremlin governments like you see in Belarus.

Ukraine

If any country should be devastated by a Trump win it is Ukraine. Simply speaking Russia is going to gain territory in Ukraine. Best can realistically hope for is only lose Crimea and Donbas but I am sadly afraid Ukraine staying as whole is not happening. However Russia may find out winning war is much easier than winning peace. Much like US in Vietnam and Iraq and USSR in Afghanistan, expect years of guerilla warfare costing more Russian lives as people of Ukraine are not going to capitulate.

Canada

Last but not least I will look at what Trump win means for Canada. On whole it could be really bad but if we play our cards right we can survive. We won’t thrive, but surviving without too much damage is at least possible but requires playing cards right and I do not think Trudeau is right person to do this while skeptical Poilievre will be asides from fact Trump probably likes him more so may go more easier on him.

Tariffs

This is by far the biggest threat and if this happens, we will experience a recession and many jobs lost. We need to like last time find a way to stop this at all cost. Trump is very personal and vindictive and I believe he will give Trudeau any leeway so Trudeau should step down now and someone like Carney take over. Yes Carney may lost next election but he should take one for the country. The biggest thing that may stop this is US relies heavily on auto and oil imports from Canada and damage from tariffs there will hurt them too. In fact considering Trump’s ideology, near positive oil is exempted. I actually think main thing he wants is access to dairy market so I think we need to accept reality that to avoid tariffs we are going to have to scrap supply management. He likes to look like a winner as has big ego so this gives him bragging rights while saves us from damage of tariffs. We shouldn’t just do it unilaterally but we should not take it off table. Unlike past negotiations I feel this time we are cornered. We could as a compromise even keep sky high tariffs on imports outside USMCA and instead have quotas on a North American wide basis.

Illegal border crossings

With Trump’s plan for mass deportation, you are going to see a big increase in illegal crossings into Canada; not by Americans but by illegals in US. We must step up CBSA patrols and unlike past Canadians with high housing prices and inability to absorb more are not going to tolerate taking any in. If Trudeau takes approach he did in first Trump term, his party could get obliterated. We need to have a strict policy that if you enter illegally from US, you will be sent back. Consensus on immigration already fraying and failure to deal with this is exactly the kind of thing that could lead to far right rising in Canada which we do not need.

Defence spending

Like it or not, I feel we need to expedite plan to reach 2%. This is going to mean tough budget choices. I don’t think tax hikes are an option as US like cuts them making us even less competitive so it is going to mean spending cuts elsewhere. While should not run on this, I think Poilievre should go after OAS which is most costly and one easiest to cut. Probably cost him 2029 election but it will be good for country long term. He should raise eligibility age to at least 67, have phase out for OAS cut in half so those making 100K get nothing. To soften impact on poorest keep GIS at 65 and enhance it. Also get rid of all corporate subsidies especially EVs as Trump is likely going to cancel many things in inflation reduction act.

Economic policies

If Trump cuts corporate taxes to 15%, we will need to cut ours but we should wait and see here or perhaps maybe cut corporate tax by 2% so in line with US and further if he proceeds. On income taxes, I am against our high top rates but I think reversing capital gains inclusion increase may be more urgent but I think on that best to wait to see what happens. At same time I think it we want to avoid productivity gap and GDP per capita gap not getting larger we are going to have to change direction. Simply speaking our current high tax, big spending, strong action on climate change isn’t going to work. At same time this may help Poilievre pass some unpopular policies as can simply claim Canada had no choice and didn’t want to do it. Poilievre has promised a full tax reform within 60 days of forming government and hopefully people on this are serious economic experts not populist and will watch closely what US does and go from there. At same time Trump won largely by appealing to working and middle class not wealthy so any changes to corporate or for top earners should be just enough to stay competitive not beat US and likewise should find ways to ensure things to helping working and middle class are much stronger.

Next election

There is much debate as to who will benefit from a Trump win. Honestly I have no idea but I do tend to think probably helps Liberals a bit but unlikely to be enough to win outright. But at least may save party from devastation and also may hold Tories to a minority or only a narrow majority not landslide like polls show today. I do think Trudeau handling it well in first Trump term likely helped him win re-election in 2019 so if he plays cards right may partially recover. Poilievre needs to portray himself as someone serious standing up for Canada and not one who will suck up to Trump. Yes much like Trudeau did on congratulatory phone call, may in private conversations try to flatter him as his personality likes that but only so much as to get results not because likes any of his policies.