2024 was definitely a chaotic year and terrible for incumbents. First time in 120 years where every national incumbent in full fledged democracies (I exclude rigged elections) saw their share of the popular vote fall even in ones like India, Ireland or Japan where incumbent parties re-elected. Does seem though parties on left have taken a much bigger hit while parties on right holding up well. I believe inflation, uncertainty, and in high income countries immigration are main things driving malaise. Likewise right is doing a superior job on capitalizing on this while left doesn’t seem to know what to do. So for next year here are my predictions below. Good thing I am doing this now not a month ago as things change quickly and no doubt next year will get surprises too. I like many am very pessimistic about 2025 and feel it will probably globally be the worst year in my adult life. If we can just make it through 2025, hopefully things start to improve in 2026.
Canada
I have long held out Poilievre’s high numbers would come down during campaign, but at this point with Liberals in such a mess I think anything other than a Conservative majority would be a foolish bet so my prediction is a Conservative majority. Whether Trudeau resigns or not seems a toss up but my guess is Liberals fall to third or fourth place with NDP forming official opposition. Yes Bloc Quebecois in that pole now, but I believe progressive voters as we get closer are likely to coalesce around one party and NDP seems better suited for that. Won’t do as well as Layton in 2011 however.
Provincial
Newfoundland & Labrador
Narrower Liberal majority
Yukon
Yukon Party majority
Ontario
Yes Ford goes early but now with spring election more likely than not timing seems up in air but I think Ford’s strong stance with Trump administration and taking team Canada approach means he bucks global trend PCs re-elected with 3rd majority.
US state elections
Democrats win governorship in both New Jersey & Virginia and outperform Harris in both states too.
Chile
A right wing party wins both presidential and at least plurality if not majority in both legislatures
Asia
Singapore
Being a one party state, PAP easily re-elected but following global trends does do slightly worse than past election
Europe
Czech Republic
Populist ANOs party led by Andrej Babis wins
Germany
CDU/CSU led by Frederich Merz comes in first but falls well short of majority. AfD slightly underperforms getting around 15% but still sets record. AfD hardline on immigration popular, but their plan to leave EU hurts them as most Germans are still pro-EU and hard right parties elsewhere after Brexit have largely dropped idea of leaving. Grand coalition is most likely outcome but with economic policies being further apart than when Merkel led such (Merz more to right, Scholz more to left), negotiations take 3-4 months and country even less stable as have to compromise on a lot.
Moldova
Pro-Western PAS wins but way closer than polls suggest as Russia interferes heavily with election by pushing all kinds of falsehoods and lies
Norway
Far right Progress Party comes in first but with other parties not willing to support a government lead by them, second place centre-right Conservative party forms a centre-right coalition of 3 to 4 parties including Progress Party but Progress Party a junior partner, doesn’t supply prime-minister. Another defeat of a social democratic party in Europe just like in Germany
Romania
Romania has a re-run of presidential and this time Lasconi wins but once again Russia is caught interfering and results much closer than polls suggest.
Australia
L/NP wins a majority making Albanese a one term PM and Dutton becomes PM. Much like Poilievre and Merz he is on right of party so plays to global trend of moving right.
afiscalconservativepointofview 
This is an absolutely brutal situation the Liberals are in right now. I think the *best case* scenario (new leader, strong campaign) is to form the Official Opposition to a majority Conservative government, able to hold Poilievre to under 200 seats. Right now, an Ignatieff-like result seems like an okay situation. If Trudeau stays on and continues to weaken, losing official party status (less than 12 seats) is a very reasonable situation.
I think they need to decide their future. If they can at least hold the best case, they would be able to have a strong caucus with a decent number of seats (say, 60 to 80) and would be positioned to hold Poilievre to account and capitalize if he becomes unpopular. However, if they don’t remain Official Opposition, they will be in a tough position and likely looking at sitting well outside the Government for at least two terms, especially with no Trudeau-like saviour lurking. If the worst case scenario happens, they will struggle to recover and Poilievre would literally have a blank check for the next 4 years, and since the opposition would be in shambles, even an unpopular Poilievre government would be favoured in 2029. The NDP would have a chance to go for the kill – but that won’t happen under Singh.
My current prediction: CPC 238, BQ 46, LPC 28, NDP 18, GPC 3, IND 1 (Vuong)
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Agreed and if Trudeau stays on and they fall enough I see two other possibilities:
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Sadly, I am convinced these predictions for the Liberals are highly likely to come to fruition. Who on earth would be willing to take over the ship that JT has already sunk at this point? Whoever hopes to lead the Liberals back into government at some future date, it is hard to imagine they will step up until after the party is defeated this time around. Maybe then the party will be more prepared to face the reality of where they went off track. I never had a lot of faith in JT, but he started off with a very capable team that he largely drove out of office with his refusal to read his own best before date, which was already flashing red when he called the unnecessary election during COVID. His inability to leave office paved the way for a weak angry man like PP to have a crack at a job he is entirely unfit for. This is my wake up call to be more engaged in politics on an ongoing basis in real life, not just online. We won’t get a better democracy unless we all demand it.
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I think fact Carney refused to take minister of finance means probably knows party is finished and wants to take over after loss, assuming much left of party. Agree taking over now would be a challenge as very likely to lose. Still a new leader could save party from being completely wiped out so they get another chance whereas with Trudeau risk get wiped out and never comes back. Conservatives will eventually get defeated but possible NDP replaces Liberals as main alternative or perhaps you see left merge much like right did a little over 20 years ago.
With how toxic politics is, most good people stay out of it and instead have more rewarding careers in private sector or maybe civil service. I am no fan of Poilievre but people like him and in many cases more extreme seem to be winning around the globe. If you read me other predictions, most show right doing well and left doing bad and same last year which largely panned out in 2024. I do think Liberals should learn from provincial counterparts in Prairies and New Brunswick where NDP in Prairies and Liberals in New Brunswick were more centrist and won in Manitoba & New Brunswick while formed strong opposition in Alberta & Saskatchewan which are provinces that will likely be near or complete Conservative sweeps federally.
When people struggling, climate change becomes a secondary concern and while yes we do need to take action you need to do things public is willing to tolerate so get closer to target even if miss it rather than go too far and risk a backlash so nothing gets done. On redistribution, I am not sure it is as popular as some in academia think. People tend to think locally so concerns about gaps between rich and poor tend to be in communities where very noticeable such as wealthy mansions but lots of homeless not far away. And those communities are not voting for parties on right. Suburbs, smaller urban and rural areas don’t have that big a gap and people tend to look at local community which is highly visible not national numbers on this. I do agree though redistribution more popular in Canada than US or even most of Europe. However, with productivity crisis and gap in median incomes between Canada and US widening maybe isn’t a vote winner like was in 2015. On whole woke issues, I think most find it a distraction and while less pushback in Canada than most places, I feel when things going badly people see it as sign not focusing on most important issues while when doing well less of a concern. Since people were doing alright in first half of Trudeau’s term, I think he could get away with more left wing ideas as Canadians are very compassionate so want to help others. But when struggling tend to focus more on themselves, family and those close to them and Trudeau failed to see that and just doubled down.
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I can agree with almost all of your points (: Maybe politics is like ecology – it’s the things you aren’t noticing enough that bring disasters over time…
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For environment changes gradual not immediate so when people doing well actually many want action on climate change. But when struggling takes a backseat priority. In 2019, Scheer lost over lack of action. Now Poilievre benefitting over carbon tax and provinces even those with centre-left parties in charge running away. In Europe, Greens did really well in 2019 elections, but horrible in 2024. So I think if all is good in your life, you think about greater issues. When struggling to afford basics, focus shifts to that.
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I agree that’s what people do. Unfortunately, they aren’t making the connections between increasing environmental damage and increasing costs of food, people fleeing environmental disasters, etc…
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