Well at last although way too late, Trudeau has finally resigned. Below will be my thoughts on that and what it means. Off course today more big news with Trump threatening to annex Canada and will have more on that later, but I do think in next election dealing with Trump is going to be one of the top ballot issues which could make the outcome less predictable than some think it will be.
Based on the circumstances, Trudeau had no choice but to resign. But with Trump administration coming in on January 20th, I am afraid our country is going to be in very bad shape until we have a stable government. And Trump is already seeing this and will likely exploit that weakness. Trudeau should have resigned much earlier and at latest done so in November so we could have a stable government in place by January 20th. But now that it is done I believe prorogation is right thing but leadership race should be as short as possible. I actually think Liberals just should have chosen an interim leader and had leadership race after election. If they won, interim leader would likely become permanent and if lost then would have a fresh one anyways. Still from now until March 24th, Trudeau needs to put 100% of his focus on dealing with the incoming threat from Trump administration. He is dead serious about tariffs and there is a very strong likelihood we got thrown into a recession. We have to have an election some time and I am afraid the 5 weeks during it could be quite bad for country. If possible would be best Trudeau remain PM so could focus on dealing with Trump administration while new Liberal leader would be just that; not PM so could campaign and after election once results are in, Trudeau would step aside and make way for whomever wins election.
In terms of what I think of candidates, I will have more once I see who runs, but I do as most think believe party needs to tack closer to centre. Not become centre-right as most Liberal and those open voting Liberal still lean left but more like Liberals were pre-Trudeau. Someone like Carney, Champagne or Anand fits this while Freeland too much to left and Christy Clark (who I would have no trouble voting for myself) is too much to right.
In terms of legacy, that is hard to know and it will be another 20-25 years once we see results before we can say. A lot will depend on whether future governments keep changes Trudeau brought in or repeal them. Prime-ministers with strong legacies are those who create things in office that remain in place long after they are gone be it CPP/Medicare/flag for Pearson, Charter and bilingualism for Trudeau sr., NAFTA and GST for Mulroney. Trudeau has had some major achievements like CCB which cut child poverty in half and also more recently childcare, dental care, and pharmacare but whether part of legacy or not will depend heavily on whether future government keeps them or not. He did handle dealing with Trump administration in first term well and with covid despite mistakes; I believe fact our death toll per capita was one of the lowest in countries with a median age over 40 is a positive; particularly as we live right next door to worse on this front. But his bad economic policies have led to stagnant growth, stagnant productivity, and cost of living rising faster than wages. Canada economically is not doing well and part is global conditions, but other part is his bad management. Some things like immigration he bungled badly and ended the consensus which made our immigration system the envy of many others. Likewise his talking down to people and appealing to social activists in academia and civil service rather than focusing on pragmatic policies has not helped country. We are more divided, but too early to say culprit. Rise of right wing populism being stronger elsewhere suggests fault may lie elsewhere. However trying to be most progressive leader in a world swinging sharply to right may have been a hill too steep to climb. Still fact he is one of the boldest progressive leaders in his time and longest serving counts for something. Before Trudeau, Canada was middle of pack in terms of most left wing vs. most right wing in developed world. Today we are one of the most progressive countries on earth. Whether lasts or not, only time will tell, but I kind of think it might. I do think with more polarized world, those that hate him now will always hate him and only may diminish if someone worse comes along. Likewise those who loved him always will. Those on fence will be key whether it is a positive, negative, or mixed legacy. I think as explained above mixed but too early to say if more positive or more negative. For me, it is likely I will see him as a lousy prime-minister right to my grave, but I am only one Canadian and possible others over time will feel differently.
As for impact, there are four possibilities, which are Liberals pull off win, lose but things tighten, no change, or they do even worse. With how unpredictable things are at this juncture, I think all four are feasible and I will explain why.
Liberals win
Many have dismissed this as impossible and while I agree its a long shot, I do think there is a chance. Christy Clark, Kathleen Wynne, and Ralph Klein all took over parties in as bad a shape as Liberals and all three won the next election although in case of Wynne badly lost one after. So that shows comebacks are possible but all three had luxury of time and I feel will be very difficult to do unless NDP reneges on bringing government down and lets them stay longer. New leaders who bring parties back usually have enough time to put their own stamp on party and distance themselves from previous administration. For next Liberal leader probably not enough time. Only thing that might save them is chaos caused by Trump administration and Liberal leader seeming like the one best to deal with him.
Lose but things Tighten
I believe this is the most likely outcome. Liberals still have a strong brand with over 40 crowd who remember Liberals pre-Trudeau so many of them with Trudeau gone will be willing to come back if party shows it has made changes. Not enough to win, but enough to avoid a massive defeat. Also Conservatives seldom get above 40% let alone 45% and when do either, usually involves a breakthrough in Quebec which they are lacking at moment. That suggests to me some Conservative voters simply parking their votes there to get rid of Trudeau and with him gone will come back. Conservatives will hold onto many votes they gained from 2021 but not all.
No change
With how volatile things are, this seems less likely as only possible for two reasons:
- Voters are so firm in intentions and polarized nothing can switch them.
- Events happen both to help Liberals and hurt them and two more or less cancel each other out.
#1 I don’t see as happening, but #2 certainly could.
Do even worse
This is definitely a risk. John Turner and Kim Campbell both examples of this and considering Trudeau had a certain core group who supported him and was good on campaign trail, not impossible if choose wrong person. Conservatives short of a blue wave in Quebec have probably maxed out (although I have said this earlier only to see them go higher so who knows) but NDP has room to grow and its not impossible if NDP jumps to mid 20s or more that could push Liberals even further down.
Polls
They will be interesting but one should view them with caution as we are in unpredictable times and probably safest prediction right now is they will change rather than predicting any specific change.
afiscalconservativepointofview 
I agree whole heartedly that Trudeau needed to go. He should have stepped down long ago to enable his party to have a robust leadership race and party re-think. And I can agree on a lot of your analysis of his wins and misses. However, I think another critical commitment he bungled was our national response to the Truth and Reconciliation Commission Calls to Action. He said some good words and seemed like he had good intentions — but I think his government’s follow through, like his leadership, fell far short of the promises he made about making meaningful progress on relations between the First Peoples of this land and the government of what we now call Canada.
I think the governance problem in our country is larger than Trudeau, though, or Harper before him, or any of our political parties. I think we suffer more and more from the intensifying concentration of power in the PMs office that Andrew Coyne dissected so well in his Dec 19-2024 column in the Globe and Mail. It’s also problematic how our political parties allow almost anyone to vote in their leadership races, a practice that makes no sense at all in our era of foreign actor interference. And maybe the biggest problem of all is how little most citizens even think about much less engage in democracy between elections.
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On First Nations reconciliation agree a disappointment but plays largely to idea he was a big virtue signaler. I do think though while it matters a lot, I don’t think it is a big vote winner so I do hope future governments do more but its probably not an issue that will get a lot of prominence in next election. Still it could be included as part of solution to our sluggish economic growth. Settling land claims could allow for more predictability in investment. Likewise First Nations are younger than Canadian population at large so greater prosperity and participation in labour force would do a lot to improve our productivity and GDP.
As for centralization in PMO, sadly seems like every PM has made it worse. Started with his father. Mulroney was worse than Trudeau sr, Chretien worse than Mulroney, Harper worse than Chretien, and Trudeau worse than Harper. Its also why he became so disconnected from larger public as he was surrounded by a few loyal advisors who were fully on board with his agenda and would never push back. And you need people in inner circle who will sometimes push back as that is how bad decisions get stopped.
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Yes! and make life better for all. Why aren’t you advising the next PM????
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It’s hard to gauge how things will play out with this. I believe the “median swing voter” wants a Conservative minority, but that would be extremely unstable as it requires the help of the Bloc Quebecois to pass any major bills. That said, I’d group the current electorate as follows (for those not eligible in 2021, this is based on how they would have voted if they were 18 or a citizen):
The first group (about 30% of the electorate) is certainly not going to change their vote with a new Liberal leader and they are currently locked in, unlike in 2021 where some may have been teetering with the PPC.
The second group (about 8% of the electorate) is interesting to see what happens. I suspect many (if not most) of them will stick with the Conservatives as they feel the Liberals have gone too far left, or the NDP (or Liberals) have become too woke for their liking. Also, they may just want change no matter what. These voters are likely heavily focused in places like the 905 area and the Vancouver suburbs. However, anything – even 1 or 2 points – that progressives can claw back would be a bonus to them. This group is either a combination of business-oriented Liberals or traditional blue-collar NDP voters.
The third group (about 15% of the electorate) is really where the action is. After all, they voted Liberal (a few NDP) in 2021, and likely in 2015 and 2019 as well, but are not with them now – but not all the way over. These voters are likely urban or suburban, with some in Atlantic Canada. Under Trudeau, it appeared a lot of them were going to stay home, with some leaning towards the Conservatives. Carney might be able to bring some back, but may also repel some especially in Quebec. Poilievre isn’t particularly popular with this group either, so it’s a “lesser evil” if they decide to vote.
The fourth group (about 35% of the electorate) is the core progressive vote. No matter what, they aren’t going to touch the Conservatives. Basically, this is the LPC+NDP+GPC in recent polls, excluding undecideds. These voters are heavily urban in nature. They have to decide what their best options are, since if they are split, the Conservatives will win a lot of extra seats and gain a supermajority. However, the Liberals can’t win with just this group.
The fifth group (about 12% of the electorate) is the real wildcard. These are mainly younger, irregular voters or Quebec nationalists. Anything the CPC gains here solidifies them even more, but most polls suggest that (among males especially) they are doing very well. Very few have dropped off the Conservative bandwagon it appears, and while the Liberals could target some Red Tory voters, it alienates the progressives.
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I would say largely true. 38.6% voted either CPC or PPC in 2021 and I suspect CPC gets over 95% of those. Of those who went Liberal but now leaning Conservative that is a wildcard. Many of those are Blue Liberals who felt Trudeau went too much to left but not exactly types who would easily support Poilievre. I feel Carney has a better chance at winning these back than Freeland. Of blue collar NDP, that has been more a steady stream as those who voted for Broadbent in 80s but Harper during his time probably gone for good. Likewise those that voted for Layton but Scheer 2019 and O’Toole 2021 probably are gone too so question is how many stuck with NDP despite drifting to right are left. I suspect most of such types have already crossed over but a few hanging on that CPC could win.
Of left they won’t go Conservative but balance Liberals have to find is be progressive enough to unite them but not so progressive they push LPC-CPC switchers firmly into CPC camp. I feel sticking close to centre with a few progressive policies best solution and also hit hard on attack ads to scare progressives to vote strategically.
Carney and Freeland having weaker French than Trudeau may hurt Liberals in Quebec, but Bloc probably more than Conservatives biggest beneficiary but possible some go Conservative but most of that will be in ridings so far behind it only pushes them up vote wise, doesn’t change things seat wise.
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