I have tweeted that I think Mark Carney will beat Pierre Poilievre and I genuinely do believe that. Not wish casting as I may very well not vote for him. His platform will need a big shift from Trudeau for me to consider him and if does not I will go elsewhere. So at this point I am only open to voting for Liberals lead by Carney which I was not under Trudeau, but far from locked in. My rationale is based on fundamentals not any poll at moment. Mine is also based on what is in front of us not behind us. Looking back, betting on Liberals winning would seem nuts, but Trudeau resigning and Trump winning has changed everything. Had either Trudeau stayed on, if someone other than Carney wins leadership race, or if Trump were not president, then a Poilievre win would be extremely likely. Off course I am far from certain as the only certainty right now is unpredictability.
There are four fundamentals why I think Carney will win. In many ways my prediction is more like Allan Lichtman’s 13 keys to white house which while wrong on last election have been usually right and are based on fundamentals not polls at time.
- Trudeau has resigned and he was big reason for Liberal unpopularity. Due to strict party discipline opinions of party depend heavily on leader. Had someone other than Trudeau been chosen in 2013, its likely party would have remained in third place. Main reason party was so unpopular was due to Trudeau. To prove my point, Dalton McGuinty in 2012 and Gordon Campbell in 2011 had approval ratings similar to Trudeau and in both cases the party by changing leader came back in subsequent election. Yes long term party lost and is not doing so well now. But point is leader of party matters a lot more than many think. They are the face and you change that, views change. High Conservative numbers were due to unpopularity of Trudeau not popularity of Poilievre. Liberals have won more elections than lost so people philosophically are not opposed to Liberals; they just disliked Trudeau who is gone.
- Trump election and tariffs. It is not going to be a carbon tax election and while cost of living and other things people were upset about haven’t totally gone away; biggest issue will be impact of Trump tariffs. The harm those will cause will far outweigh struggles we are having now and people are going to vote on who will best deal with that. Poilievre is like general fighting last battle not upcoming one. Carney is an experienced central banker and loads of experience private sector. Poilievre is a career politician who goes on slogans. He did well up to now as he tapped into people’s frustrations and often elections won on emotions. But with serious threat, people will want who is best positioned to handle current threat. And Carney has that. If you are on a plane and an engine blows out, you will want most experienced captain to be in charge of landing it, not person who plays on your frustration for plane being late which was earlier problem.
- Poilievre was right person for right time but not anymore. Poilievre has never been very likeable. His brash style does appeal to some especially in tough times. But while emotions matter people are not stupid and when threat is dire they want who has most experience. Never mind his slogans come across as immature and even worse some fear may be too much like Trump.
- Elections aren’t just referendums on past, they are also votes on future. Trudeau handled pandemic quite well and that should have lead to an easy majority in 2021. But it did not as people were focused on who could best help country post pandemic recover and on that count it was unclear thus why minority government. Right now focus is on who is up to challenge ahead and Carney is that.
Some say I am a Liberal, but that is not case. I did not vote for Trudeau once and I am far from sold on Carney. But prognosticators put aside own view and look at fundamentals. Allan Lichtman is a solid Democrat and strongly disliked Reagan and Trump but yet in 1982 and summer of 2016 he predicted both would win based on fundamentals. Likewise in finance, you make investments based on predictions on how things will be in the future not where at. Polls are snapshots where at just like current stock price is but investors go on where they think it will be. As Gretzky once said, you skate to where puck will be not is.
afiscalconservativepointofview 
If you are voting in the leadership race, you must be a Liberal Party member and that makes you a Liberal. I would like to vote in the race but I still have a CPC membership. I think the rule that forbids voting for the leaders of more than one party should be repealed.
I think if only the politically engaged and well educated voted, your prediction might be more probable, but Canada enjoys universal suffrage so the voter median is neither well education or politically engaged and they get their news from TikTok videos.
I doubt Canadian voters will have enough time to get to know Carney before a general election. Poilievre has been campaigning for the PM job for literally years now and everyone is familiar with his videos which most find entertaining. If Mark Carney would listen to me, I’d advise him to poach Poilievre’s social media marketing team; they are top notch.
I think Carney would be a valuable asset to Canada and if he wins the leadership race, I hope he sticks around even if he doesn’t win the PM in the next election.
Personally, I prefer Chrystia Freeland for leader; I think she is smart and she is driven to win. Her campaign launch was far superior to Carney’s. But she is from the poisoned well. Carney is too, if you take a close look, but most voters will buy the “outsider” label.
We’ll see what happens between now and a general election but even if it isn’t until October, that is not much time for Carney, should he win the leadership, to get to know Canadians. And I doubt he can “win” a debate with Poilievre. Political debate wins are judged on who takes the most time and Poilievre can be relied on to interrupt Carney, insult him, and needle him while Carney will default to his experience, which is to give thoughtful, nuanced answers.
But politics are fickle and depending on Carney’s luck, you could be right.
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I am not a member and not voting in leadership race. Still I think Carney has best chance. Freeland whatever talents she has is tainted by being finance minister of Trudeau government so need more political distance. Yes social media has some impact but don’t underestimate educated voters. Canada has highest rate of post secondary educated people on earth many educated voters count more than in most countries.
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I don’t know if Carney will win the next election – but I hope against hope you are right and he does so. I don’t as you know give my heart to any political party ever – but PP’s lack of positive vision and utter lack of real world experience terrify me – Trump could eat him for breakfast. And neither the NDP or Greens have a hope of wining the next election. That leaves Liberal as the only viable vote for me IF they choose Carney to lead. Yes his political chops are an unknown. But in my view, Carney’s much more informed and positive vision for the future, coupled with his deep real world experience in economics and his ability to deal with world leaders from a credible place, make him a far better bet than any other candidate in any of the parties. Canada will not fare well with the US if PP is our next PM.
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More I see of Poilievre harder it is for me to vote for him and note by nature I am probably more open to voting Conservative than you are. Off course due to travel plans I may end up missing the election as could come on date when in a remote country where mailing in is not realistic.
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Some of the conservative slogans have definitely gotten a bit ridiculous lately. Like the recent tweets from the CPC and their MLAs were they nicknamed liberal leadership candidates after the carbon tax. I do not think the conservatives will win 200+ seats in the next election and they may or may not win a majority either. That huge lead they had was because the opposition was demoralized. A chunk of liberal support probably has moved to undecided or is soft conservative support at the moment. Carney will likely bring back almost all of the traditional core liberal support and make the election way more competitive.
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Agreed and their behavior suggests to me their internals are not good as they are panicking. Frank Graves getting a lot of hate for his poll but I think he is onto something. Possible it is that 1 in 20 thus want to wait and see if other pollsters show same but everything I see suggests lead right now is probably around 15 points and rapidly declining. I suspect once leader is chosen Liberals pull into lead.
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Quito Maggi did mention recently on X that pollsters who use panels for their polling take awhile to pick up new shifts in polling. I have noticed in the past despite ekos’s wonky polls that they tend to pick up shifts in polling quicker than other polls. The same can be said about Mainstreet Research who have caught trends no other pollster has picked up in the past because of the way they conduct their polling.
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Only problem with Ekos is sometimes they overreact to trends and show bigger shifts than really happen. I don’t buy idea went from 25% Conservative lead to 7% in 3 weeks but most likely Conservatives never were really at 25% lead and only showed that as many dissatisfied Liberals went into undecided column and have come back as well as some reluctant conservatives when Trudeau was still PM went into conservative column and have returned to undecided (and I believe eventually will go into Liberal column but not yet). Still I think Frank Graves is picking up trend and unless it was a blip over Trump’s inauguration others will show it. I also believe trend is still ongoing and its going to continue right through until election day.
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I saw that, if the EKOS poll was weighted correctly for education, it would have been a 14-15 point lead and not a 4-5 point lead. What I think might happen with Carney (or Freeland) is that it may bring back those who are highly educated into the Liberal fold, which is an asset in urban and affluent ridings. However, working class voters seem to be gone for good (even that poll saw little movement among those with high school or college/CEGEP education), and I’m really skeptical of either of them doing well in Quebec since they have no real ties to that province.
One thing that does seem to be happening is that the NDP base is angry at Jagmeet Singh for walking away from the supply and confidence agreement and pushing for an election. Those “woke” types (I know that word is controversial) may be moving to the Liberals as a result, and helping to solidify them. They are scared an election may elect Poilievre, and probably wish the NDP would form an agreement through September 2026. That is a dangerous position for the NDP right now, since those polls show that they could very well lose official party status as they would be nowhere to be found in any province.
My guess is that the Mainstreet poll, which showed the Liberals gaining at NDP expense but with the Conservatives steady, is most representative of the situation right now. That would likely lead to a solid Conservative majority, however, the Liberals would remain a solid opposition thanks to left-wing urban ridings sticking with them (and the NDP virtually wiped out).
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Largely agree with this. Also I think polling miss in US 2016 may be indictive as I think O’Toole was more acceptable to well educated than Poilievre much like Romney was in US so weighting difference didn’t make a lot of difference in 2021 but could in next election. So if anything Ekos making same mistake that many US polls did in 2016
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I think what we might be seeing is some of the Liberal vote “coming home”. Many of the votes that weren’t there in late Trudeau polls were likely undecided (a few parking with the NDP) and that changed the denominator – I don’t think people are so much leaving Poilievre as that most of them were never there and just on the fence.
Those who jumped to the Conservatives (which was likely about 5% of the broader electorate, including undecideds) may not come back unless the party really moves back to the centre though, or unless the NDP returns to its roots. The question is whether this is a honeymoon effect or a true movement?
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