Well Trump went ahead with his devastating 25% tariffs or at least almost did. Yes we get a one month reprieve but lets not kid ourselves and assume this is over by any means. We may avoid them altogether but policy must not be based on hope. It must deal with all possibilities from the worst to the best. Nevertheless happens or not, this will damage trust of the United States not just by Canada by many others for years to come. It also showed many of Canada’s vulnerabilities which we absolutely must fix and hopefully is a wake up call. Below I will discuss what this means, long term impact on how world views United States and finally what Canada needs to do to help cushion any such impact in the future.
Trump’s behavior is that of a bully and must be fully condemned. It is fine for US to have concerns but you talk with your neighbors, not threaten to break a trade agreement and hit them with devastating tariffs. That is not how international relations work and Trump needs to understand that. That may be how he practiced his shady businesses but government and international relations are not like his business transactions. If tariffs come in some day, they will not only devastate Canadian economy but hurt US too making prices more expensive for average Americans, especially working class. Tariffs are a tax on consumers not foreign countries and it is a regressive tax that hurts the poor the most. But more importantly the longstanding damage of this is US has lost the trust of many of its allies and many rightly wondering if we can ever trust them again.
Trump won’t be president forever thankfully but after what was done, it will take years to rebuild trust. Canada & US have many things we could cooperate on but can we really trust US will keep their word? Likewise respect is a two way street and when treated like this it is hard to not to have a negative view of country. Canada and US have largely had a successful relation in past but it is not something that is guaranteed to last forever or be taken for granted. Also fact 49.8% of Americans voted for this says a lot about country. This and his other abuses we all warned people about so maybe next time instead of trying to own libs, think about alternative. I get people were upset with Democrats, but that doesn’t mean you burn the place down. Those unhappy with Democrats could have always done a split ticket voting Harris for president while GOP down ballot as a counter-measure. Instead almost half of Americans choose to put a bully and unstable lunatic in white house who only cares about himself and billionaire friends, while willing to screw over anyone including his own supporters to enrich himself and friends. And he needs to shut up about making us a 51st state. Canadians are clear, we do not want to join the United States. We can be friends and trading partners (although even that is doubtful nowadays) but joining is off the table. His 19th century mercantilism fantasies are complete garbage that any economist with a half a brain knows are. Idea you can replace income tax with tariffs and access resources abroad by military might was a failure and is something that needs to remain in history books not be practiced in 21st century. Biggest risk is this will just embolden China & Russia to be even more aggressive and with fewer trusting US more countries will fall into China’s orbit so well done Donald!!
As for how Canadians personally respond, that is up to each individual but anything from outright boycott to just buying fewer American goods and visiting there less is fine by me. I will still travel to US for business but if tariffs implemented, I will cancel any vacation there. Likewise for my investments I will set a higher threshold for US based companies than Canadian although still invest in US. And for goods I will start checking labels and avoiding US goods where possible if he goes through with this. However, while I will not boycott US unless tariffs implemented, some Canadians may not be so forgiving so I believe damage already done.
Now that our vulnerabilities have been exposed, Canada must do the following irrespective of whether tariffs implemented or not as we still have almost 4 years left of on and off threats so we need to make our country less vulnerable. The thing businesses hate most is uncertainty so as long as threat exists; it will have a dampening impact on economic growth even if never happens.
- Remove all interprovincial barriers as this would give a huge boost to GDP and once again establish stronger East-West links and make us less reliant on North-South.
- Get pipelines and other infrastructure built ASAP so we can get our products to market and expand markets. I was against blocking resource projects and hopefully this is a wake up call to stop this.
- Reduce corporate taxes to make Canada more attractive for start ups and entrepreneurship
- Permanently cancel the capital gains tax hike and as budget permits reduce income taxes to make work pay.
- Expand trade deals abroad by putting CANZUK in action and going beyond CETA to joining the EEA like Norway, Switzerland, Iceland & Liechtenstein have. This would give us greater access to EU without full membership. Also if EU invites Canada to join, send in application. It can stay dormant as long as possible but put it in to let US, China and others know we are serious. Just threat of joining will make them realize we have other allies and cannot be easily pushed around. Also strengthen ties with democratic countries in the Asia-Pacific region like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia & New Zealand.
- Increase military spending to at least 2% of GDP by 2027 at absolute latest. Also withdraw from nuclear non-proliferation treaty and build nuclear weapons. This may sound extreme but we should take Trump’s threat of annexation seriously. US wants our water and resources so we must make any such attack on Canada mutually assured destruction so no country will attack us. Nuclear weapons like with US would be for defensive purposes only and aimed to protect us from any attack not just US but also China, Russia or whomever.
- Recall parliament and have all parties promise not to introduce a non-confidence motion. Election can wait until October. Now is time as team Canada for all parties to put interest of country ahead of their own partisan interest.
Next four years will be rough but if we make above changes we can come out stronger even if a bit of short term pain. Likewise I would like Canada to be on good terms with United States but it cannot come at all costs. And after what was done it is going to take time to rebuild trust. Electing a Democrat in 2028 won’t alone repair relations as we are not going to sign a deal only to have next Republican president rip up. Before I support any greater integration with US, we need assurances no risk of that being ripped up and right now I don’t see that coming for a long time. I was for example long for ditching supply management but after what US did, forget it or at least tariffs on imports of dairy, poultry, and eggs will only be lifted for other countries we can trust. That does not mean I dislike all Americans; lots of Americans are wonderful people but feel while most like Canadians, they are very ignorant about us. So when meeting Americans we need to do a better job of telling them more about who we are. We are not a northern extension of their country and we are not some small one they can kick around. I believe I big reason Trump thought he could get away with this as while most Americans aren’t bullies like him; far too many are ignorant of Canada and he took advantage of that. If you have American family or friends let them know how upset you are at this. It is only if more Americans understand who we are we can long term ensure this doesn’t happen.
afiscalconservativepointofview 
You have clearly given the ways that we can respond much deeper thought than me, and I would like to discuss them further with you next time we meet up. I think Trump is flooding the zone with s–t to terrorize everyone, but I am also betting that he has miscalculated the resolve of a lot of his own citizens as well as most Canadians. We have a good track record in history when the going gets tough – and many of us can do with a lot less or different if we have to. As long as we are all willing to make sure the most vulnerable are not left behind, I think most Canadians will be more than glad to show Trump what we are made of. As for boycotting, I am trying to do my research because I want to be selective. I don’t want to penalize the states that went for Harris. I will still visit Hawaii or California or Seattle if/when I can. But I am done with those states that voted in Felon & Elon INC., knowing full well what thugs they are. So I want to refrain from buying anything from the Trump states as much as possible, whether the tarrifs proceed or not, based on all the other crap he is already pulling, including his rampage on the FBI, the Dept of Justice, DEI, education, and immigrants, as well as his sending Elon to terrorize all government employees with memos and gaining access to their personal payroll data. As for corporations, I have just started collecting info. But it looks like goodbye to Walmart and Amazon for starters. It is time for everyone to get off the sidelines and take a stand.
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Agreed on travel type boycott and good news living in Western Canada, Hawaii is closest state not Florida for nice weather. Anyways last time I visited a red state was late 2022 anyways and even then almost always stayed in blue counties. But yes what Trump is doing is disgusting and I believe reason going quick is he knows longer he waits less pushback. You go early you can get a lot done before opposition mounts. I agree Elon Musk is a disgrace and I hope Canada revokes his citizenship as he has three citizenships (American, Canadian, and South African). Also I don’t drink hard liquor and almost all US wines I drink are from California or occasionally Washington state. Most produce California too although maybe less oranges and citrus fruits as lots of that comes from Florida.
I am seeing level of patriotism haven’t seen in years and I think pride in Canada was really diminishing in last few years and Trump’s stupidity helped unite Canadians. Even many Conservatives who loathe Trudeau were strongly condemning him. Likewise EU took notice and they will not trust US. Even a few have said would support Canada joining if we wanted to.
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Do you think that NAFTA has essentially made Canada “locked in” and more reliant on US imports of Canadian products? I think yes when you look at Auto, Oil and Agriculture but I also see people say no primarily because they justify Canada always had the freedom to trade with other partners. It just doesn’t feel like we’ve had other trade partners and it’s mostly the US, coming from an Alberta perspective but I see it to an extent on a national level too.
I’m curious on what people think of NAFTA now since Trump’s tariffs which are harder than in his first term is pretty dividing at least to people I know who both oppose and support NAFTA and CUSMA.
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Yes and no. I think free trade is a good thing and makes sense to start with closest partner and then use as model to expand to others as we have. Real problem is more lack of innovation and risk aversion in Canada. Too many firms here like to play it safe and we maybe could have got away with that when US was reliable but now a wake up call. Point is never put all your eggs in one basket. Have as many trading partners as possible so if one goes rogue we can pivot.
On USMCA we should not renew it and instead go to WTO rules where average tariff is only 4% although would be higher if US starts a trade war with us. If US wants free trade with us again, they can join CTPP or convince EU to let them be part of CETA. Otherwise no more bilateral trade deals with US, only multilateral going further. So if they come after us again we will have others on our side and not be alone.
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A few thoughts about where Canada is now politically:
Conservatives: They have lost a bit of ground, however, much of that is due to the fact that many undecideds are coming home to the Liberals – not due to losing their own supporters. They seem to be holding in the low 40s, and that includes the Carney polls. I suspect much of that is because they are doing very well among working class and middle-class Canadians, particularly those with less than a university degree (i.e., high school or college/CEGEP level) and dominating among male voters, especially under 65. I can’t see Carney winning them back since he doesn’t speak to them at all and is seen as too “elite”.
Liberals: The Carney momentum is real. They have regained the undecideds and appear to be gaining urban NDP voters. However, they may be at a ceiling in the mid to high 30s, since they have primarily gained among seniors, highly educated voters and female voters. Additionally, it probably won’t win them too many more seats even if they are higher than in 2021, due to the fact they are likely gaining in places they already hold. The female voters, as well as older and especially highly educated voters, are the ones in Canada most frightened about Trump and want someone who talks tough. They are also doing very well again with higher income voters, which suggests Carney speaks to them. Once leader though, can Carney hold in Quebec despite poor French? That’s a real wild card, especially since to win, he will need those seats.
NDP: This may be a disaster in the making for them. They appear to have lost both their traditional working class base (to the Conservatives) and the more urban types (to the Liberals). If the polls show them in Audrey McLaughlin territory, they are headed for a wipeout or near-wipeout. There isn’t much they can do since they are in the same bed as the Liberals, and their voters are scared of Poilievre. I can see them being totally irrelevant going forward without official party status, at least in the next election, unless Carney flops on the campaign trail. Singh is the leader in the worst shape by far.
What does that mean? It really will come down to the campaign. Carney might want to go sooner rather than later, so that Poilievre can’t use attack ads to bring him down (saying he is “too elite” or “not one of us” like Ignatieff), as the spending limits kick in during a campaign. Also, that is less time for Carney to make mistakes that could bring him down. I think Singh might want to reconsider pulling the plug (if Carney doesn’t call an election himself) since the NDP are headed for disaster right now – thanks Trump for solidifying the progressive vote. If there is a minority government, it would be almost ungovernable, since the only way to get anything passed would be with the Bloc (unless the Liberals are like at 165-170 seats). There could be quite a bit of realignment too based on income and education especially.
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Would generally agree.
At moment Conservatives still big lead in Prairies, but in Ontario much tighter but polls vary although seems more NDP imploding while Tory decline smaller. Atlantic Canada probably tied as main reason swung to Tories was opposition to carbon tax which all Liberal leadership candidates promise to scrap. Quebec is a wildcard but Trump tariffs do seem to be helping Liberals. BC might save NDP depending on how much strategic voting there is there but either way elsewhere bad news and only places I can see NDP short of Carney messing up winning is in Conservative-NDP battlegrounds where they might get enough strategic votes of those wanting to stop Poilievre. Still while Conservatives probably ahead at moment, my prediction is still a Liberal win. And if an election were held today possible would be a minority.
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