In a mere six weeks, Liberals have gone from being a party looking at a wipeout to looking like favorites to win next election. Likewise big Conservative lead that made a landslide majority look likely is now looking like another loss. Many people puzzled how things could swing so fast and many hardcore Conservative supporters in denial how its even possible Canadians could be thinking of giving Liberals another shot. While I wouldn’t say I was sure this would happen, I always saw it as a possibility so less a surprise to me than others. The 25 point lead Poilievre had was very superficial and was never likely hold. Also a lot of his support was quite soft and changing conditions could easily change that. Fact is combined right wing vote of Conservatives + PPC is still at or slightly above what they got in 2021. Problem for Conservatives is very few of the 61% who voted for Parties not on right are going Conservative while many who went NDP or Bloc Quebecois are swinging over to Liberals.
The swing happened for essentially two reasons
- Justin Trudeau resigned: Much of the low Liberal polling and high Conservative polling was due to anger at Justin Trudeau and with him gone that has subsided. This is not first time this has happened; we saw it in BC when Gordon Campbell stepped down and when Dalton McGuinty did same in Ontario. Sometimes its a flash in pan, other times sustainable but not uncommon. Contrary to what some think, Liberal party still has a very strong brand and dissatisfaction was with person at top not party at large.
- Trump got elected and threatened annexation: Generally Canadians when in a crisis like to stick with who is in power regardless of ideology. This is no different than covid bump Trudeau got or Harper winning re-election during Great Recession. Also Canadians are quite patriotic and Liberals are party of Canadian nationalism. I know some on right question this but most Canadians see them as party that brought the flag, charter, and medicare, not as some post-national woke party and branding matters a lot. Conservatives by contrast are seen as the more pro-American party. After all 25% of Conservative supporters would like to join the United States while for Liberals its under 5% so with US president threatening us; it shouldn’t be surprising people are going to swing towards the party that is more negative on United States.
Besides those I think there are other things at work. Poilievre’s brash right wing populism is not popular in Canada. If party was more moderate would likely still have decent lead. Ford is on track to win a bigger majority and Houston in Nova Scotia won a big one last November. By contrast both Moe and Smith narrowly won in provinces Tories normally have blowouts in, while Heather Stefanson and Blaine Higgs lost outright in more swingy provinces. Former two are more moderate conservatives while latter four more right wing. This was huge red flag that such ideology not so popular and that once Poilievre came under more scrutiny things would tighten. Add in Trudeau being gone while replacement a more centrist with strong economic credentials and this was bound to change. Vast majority of Conservative voters from 2021 still with party and likely will stay. Also has gained some PPC ones too. However, of Liberal supporters, its no surprise many have come home. Some parked vote with Conservatives others just planned to stay home thus were not picked up in polls but now plan to show up again. I actually believe much of change is less people switching from Conservative to Liberal and more Liberals planning to stay home now planning to vote again. NDP switching is simply your usually strategic voting you get on left. Unlike past, today left cares less about party label and more about stopping Conservatives so days of winning a majority with only 40% may be over. This means party needs to find a way to get 45% and they won’t do that if have someone like Poilievre on top. Bloc Quebecois could be flash in pan, but I think that is more due to Trump annexation threat. As only French speaking province or state in North America and knowing full well what happened to Louisiana, Quebecers know joining US would not just mean more gun violence and loss of free health care; but also long term loss of language just as happened to Francophones in Louisiana. As such they are going to vote for the most pro-Canada not separatist party.
Some on right cannot believe this as last 10 years have been so awful so how could anyone in their right mind turn around and vote for this? Reality is while last 10 years bad, most know things could be worse and few expect perfection; they are looking at what is best or least bad option. For those over 50, many of us see Poilievre as proxy to Harper while Carney to Chretien. And most in that group would say Chretien was best, Harper in between, and Trudeau worst. In addition with their disaster south of border, I think there is strong agreement from all except most hardcore right wingers as imperfect as Canada may be, its much better than what is happening south of the border. And to far too many people Poilievre is seen as Trump lite. Some will argue against this but people go on vibes and they dislike Trump so much someone with even a slight similarity is a non-starter. And whether one thinks Poilievre is Trump of north or not, he is definitely closer than Carney.
So unlike some I absolutely believe the polls are accurate and predicted a Carney win over a month ago. Yes its possible it is a fleeting moment but Tories assuming this is either wrong or won’t stay are severely mistaken. Odds are things do tighten during the election, but Carney still hasn’t been chosen yet and with usual honeymoon I expect Liberal lead to get even wider. I think by mid March it will be 8-10 point lead. That won’t last through campaign, but is enough of a cushion that as long as no major screw up, Liberals will come out on top. Tories still can win this, but they have to make big changes and do so fast. That means jettisoning your attack dog and right wing ideologues like Jenni Byrne. Shut up on carbon tax which is gone. And develop a realistic plan how you will make Canada more resilient no matter what Trump does. Poilievre has at times given hints of this, but always returns to old ways and cannot stay like this for long. Likewise as long as 40% of Conservative supporters think Trump is doing a good job, it is going to be very tough for party to do so without risking upsetting those.
afiscalconservativepointofview 
I have to hope that the majority of Liberal Party voters in the leadership election, as well as the majority of citizens voting in the next federal election, recognize that whatever they feel about Trudeau and/or the the past 10 years of Liberal government, the past is past and what we face now and for the forseeable future requires a PM with as much real world experience and relevant expertise as possible – assets that Carney brings and PP simply does not. In less threatening times, a lot of people might feel they could use their vote to punish a government for its track record during COVID, or whatever other policies they didn’t support. In the times we now face with our closest neighbour and around the world, I really believe the difference maker will be who can go toe to toe with a sociopath US President, without blinking, and who can build the strongest and most experienced team around him. That is Carney on both counts, and PP on neither.
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Absolutely agree thus why I think Carney will win. I also think its why Poilievre wanted an election so badly earlier as feared if Trump won it would hurt his chances. I think had Harris won it would be a risk more would be willing to take although even then I think polls were going to tighten no matter what, just maybe not this much.
I think a lot are voting on future not past and thus why many who are upset with Liberal performance of past 10 years still staying Liberal as realize election is about next 4 years not past ten.
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I think the polls showing the Conservatives in the high 40s were a “mirage” based on a high undecided number. If undecideds were added in, they were likely in the high 30s, while most of the undecideds were otherwise Liberal voters that weren’t happy with Trudeau. Even a Trudeau-Poilievre race would likely be something like 42-32 right now, which would be a CPC majority but not a large one.
I don’t think too many had “parked” their votes with the Conservatives, since they haven’t seen huge drops, at least not relative to, say, the summer or fall of 2024. Those were more real results. Instead, most of the undecideds have come home, while the NDP vote has collapsed to the benefit of the Liberals. After all, it’s still quite likely the Conservatives will gain seats relative to 2021, even if the Liberals also gain and possibly get a majority, which would mostly come from the NDP (or a small number of more working class Liberal seats).
That could be devastating for the NDP, since they don’t have the working class base anymore like they did in the 1990s and 2000s (that’s now CPC domain, and probably quite solid). Instead, what’s left of the NDP are woke young females (who are the least likely to vote) and left-leaning voters who may not have been happy at Trudeau. That’s a recipe for ending up with no more than, maybe 3 or 4 seats.
There’s also the generation gap too. For those over 60, the Trudeau years have largely been great for them – housing price increases and wealth increases have disproportionately benefitted them. They are also the age group most against Trump and are seeing the greatest propensity to boycott. As a result, it’s not surprising that Carney is doing very well with them – he is likely well clear of 50%, possibly near 60%, among Boomer females and probably around a 45-45 tie among Boomer males. Look at the Carney events and they are overwhelmingly older people at them. That’s a big change from the Harper days, but someone 65 when Harper was first elected would be 84 now…and the Silent generation continues to shrink quickly.
That also leads me to think that a higher turnout is what the Conservatives need – their strongest support is with Gen Z, Millennial and Gen X males, especially the former two where the CPC is likely over 50% with (and the PPC is potentially lurking). Younger generations have not seen much benefits from the cost of living issues in the Trudeau years, and males especially. However, those are groups that are traditionally less likely to vote – which means that a higher turnout overall probably benefits Poilievre. (Millennial and Gen X females are in the middle, probably with a slight Liberal lead but the Conservatives doing decently with them, and the NDP falling but still with about 15-20%. Only Gen Z females have any residual NDP support – and that may be the hardest nut for Carney to crack, since he may be insufficiently left-wing for them.)
It creates a nightmare situation for the Conservatives on the Trump issue. Their supporters are about 50-50 on whether they support Trump, and even those that don’t aren’t strong opponents. On the other hand, progressive voters are unanimous against and strongly so. If the CPC takes a more hardline position, it risks angering Trump and Musk, and giving more leverage to the PPC. If they are too soft, the LPC can use it as strong attack ad material and coalesce the left even more.
Quebec is the big wildcard, and a critical one. It is unlikely the Liberals will get a majority without further gains in La Belle Province, since the rural seats in English Canada are pretty solid for the most part for the CPC (and, if anything, more solid since they are far more working class and Carney will be seen as far too “elite” for them). So far, it may be working, but the debates and campaign – especially in French – will be key to get these seats in the Montreal suburbs and moderately nationalistic parts of Quebec. (Interestingly, the CPC has, if anything, risen some in Quebec in the last couple months, so there is some limited gain potential in places like Trois-Rivieres, Charlevoix and Saguenay if the LPC takes a lot of Bloc support in those weak ridings for them).
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Would largely agree and I think LPC leading amongst seniors is more due to change of who seniors are today not change in vote. During Harper era, most seniors were silent generation and they tended to be fairly conservative. But they were smaller than boomers and a large chunk but not all have died since. Young females being quite left wing not a surprise as saw that in German election where Die Linke who is quite far to left got 34% of young females there despite only 9% nationally. In UK Greens came in second behind Labour amongst females under 35.
I agree Conservatives at 45% to 47% was a mirage as a lot of ex Liberals just moved to undecided column or didn’t answer polls. But was risk could get that pre-Trump if too many stayed home, but that is long gone. I do think though some who voted Liberal in 2021 but were leaning Conservative have swung back to Liberals. But those types are very fluid and soft voters and can easily bounce between the two. They are type Conservatives never really had a lock on and Liberals could just as easily lose if mess up.
High turnout probably helps Conservatives but not necessarily as motivation matters a lot too. I found Conservative voters tend to be most energized thus more likely to show up than other parties regardless of age. Carney cannot excite people way Trudeau has so he needs to play on fear of Tories and with Trump easy to do. As fear of Poilievre could bring out some low propensity progressive and centrist voters.
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I think the conservatives will struggle until they figure out how to respond to the trump threat better and stop with the negative attacks, verb the noun sloganeering and the use of nicknames. I noticed lately on X that some conservative MPs aren’t really advertising themselves or their party’s policy but attacking carney constantly which is insane. Pollievre isn’t as bad as those MPs on X but you still have him spouting ridiculous stuff like Carbon tax carney is sneaking in a carbon tax con job. Me and a bunch of people on a global politics server have been mocking pollievre daily for saying stuff like that on twitter.
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Poilievre was right choice when cost of living was #1 issue and did well on that but now who can deal with Trump is biggest issue and on that Liberals clearly have lead thus why shift in polls. Most intrinsically see Liberals as the more nationalistic party and Tories as more pro-American so with Anti-Americanism and Canadian nationalism at all time high that benefits Liberals. While Trump is very unpopular in Canada, minority who support him are mostly Conservative voters and party fears come out too hard against him and risk PPC picking up those votes.
I think they still should as many of those in Alberta & Saskatchewan which is a big reason Moe & Smith taking a soft approach vs. Ford & Houston taking a much harder line. Opposing Trump probably helps PPC but most of the lost votes would in ridings already winning. Being seen as too soft on Trump may hold those votes but it hurts them in ridings that count more thus loses them election. Ford got this but Ford like him or not is a lot more able to pivot than Poilievre is thus why more successful politically.
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Ford doesn’t have to rely a lot on those maple MAGA supporters to be successful. He’s more of a urban populist who loves to build things. Despite ford saying multiple times in the last few years that he supports trump no one cared about that because he has his own successful brand while pollievre and the conservatives have tied themselves to the global far right movement in recent years. It’s the same issue smith and to a lesser extent Moe face, but at least both of them know how to appeal to the constituents.
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Agreed and Rustad in BC has same issue too which is why party now in a mess. Moe & Smith may be able to get away with it as Poilievre is going to win big in those two provinces; but problem for Poilievre is he is unlikely to do well in other 8 thus trouble winning. In case of Ford right about suburban support and in fact in rural areas he won them but not by blowout margins I thought he would, suggesting some right wing types stayed home there but he made up for it by doing well in suburbs while still winning those anyways.
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