Its still 32 days away from the election but at this point I believe things already baked in and chance of a Conservative victory is probably somewhere in neighbourhood of 0.1%. My next blog will be after I vote as I am departing on April 4th so voting before I leave, but I will write an article on why I voted the way I did so stay tuned. Polls have now come around to where I predicted they would be so I don’t like to boast about being right even if my prediction was bold and went against grain, but so far everything is unfolding as I have predicted. This is more to debunk those on twitter who still think Conservatives have a chance or in some cases even likely to win.
Conservatives have no path to victory for primarily two reasons, which are lack of splits on centre-left and without those even reaching their vote ceiling is not enough. NDP has plunged to single digits and will stay there as long as Conservatives perceived as having a chance. Many wrongly assume Liberals and NDP different political tribes and in past were; but today most have one goal in common despite differences which is to keep Conservatives out of office. Its why in Western provinces, provincial NDP more or less united the two and even in Ontario at riding level most voted strategically. Harper’s three wins relied heavily on splits and without those, he would have lost all three times including 2011. Back in December, most thought a Conservative win was a foregone conclusion so people could vote their conscious but that is no longer case. As such only way NDP recovers is if Tories fall to low 30s or even 20s thus no longer a threat of winning. As long as remain above 35%, NDP will not recover. Sure some in NDP may see Carney as an elitist banker and too centrist; but they also see Poilievre as mini-Trump and desire to stop Poilievre far outweighs any concerns of Carney. Second reason is Tories have a ceiling of 42% and chances of even getting that are quite low. Yes they were in the 45-47% earlier but some of that were simply anti-Trudeau voters who as soon as he resigned would return to Liberals. Also, Trudeau governed more like an NDPer and in a straight up left vs. right; Conservatives would probably get in 40s whereas in a centrist vs. right, Conservatives likely in 30s as we see now. With NDP in single digits, that means even if by some miracle Conservatives do reach 42%, they will still lose. May win popular vote but as saw in 2019 and 2021, still win fewer seats as need 3 to 4% lead to win most seats. Also, since Poilievre has no allies its majority or bust and lead they need to win a majority is not possible unless either have double digit lead or get above 46% and both are impossible.
On twitter many have claimed either polls wrong or that this will change. Below I will list reasons and explain why that is not the case
- Carney had a horrible start and is terrible at answering questions while Tories had good start: That is projecting one’s opinion as polls show no such thing. More importantly due to existential threat, people don’t care as much about image or delivery as normally do. What people care most about is who will guide us best through next four years and Canadians have already decided that is Carney. Gap between Poilievre and Carney is so large on this question that it is simply not possible to overcome it. When people are firm in decision, all Conservatives can do is minimize seat losses not actually win.
- Poilievre has massive rallies proving he has lots of support: Rallies are a horrible indicator of popularity. They tell you about how many passionate supporters you have but little about how wide support is. Jeremy Corbyn in 2017 and 2019 British elections had massive rallies too yet lost both times.
- Polls are Liberal biased and Conservatives are ahead: Most public polls are loss leaders so pollsters report what they find. And I have heard from a few sources internals are actually worse than public polls but while cannot confirm, I would be inclined to think if any polling error, it is more likely underestimating Liberal lead than overestimating.
- Poilievre will eat Carney alive in debates: Its true Carney is not the greatest debater but this will not be case for two reasons. One, Poilievre is not a great debater either and just comes across as aggressive which will turn many off. Two, knockout punches like 1984 “you sir had an option” are the exception not norm and most debates simply re-enforce pre-conceived views. And finally debate only 12 days before election which is not enough time for a major shift.
- Carney is just experiencing normal honeymoon new leaders get: That may be partially true but honeymoons typically last a few months so it won’t end before election.
- Polls don’t shift this massively in such a short time: With exception of the US, its actually not that uncommon as Canadians aren’t as polarized. In British politics it has happened 4x in last decade. More importantly most who were planning to vote Conservative but now going Liberal were people who voted Liberal in 2021 so not a surprise that with Trudeau resigning; many are coming home. Conservative support is around 37-38% which is actually slightly better than they usually do so aren’t losing core support, just soft supporters who were open to voting for them but not firm. Likewise NDP drop is a different story as explained above.
I get some Conservatives have a tough time fathoming why Liberals leading but reality is Poilievre was never a good choice. He appeals to base but never popular beyond that. Only had big lead as people disliked Trudeau even more, but moment you got rid of him, he came under more scrutiny and people decided they didn’t like him. At this point, goal of Conservatives should be to aim for 130-140 seats and around 40% of popular vote which is probably best case scenario. If get that, will form a strong opposition and can use next four years to make case they are government in waiting. But if continue to screwup could fall as low as 80 seats and down to low 30s while Liberals top 50% meaning a comeback in 2029 will require a massive Liberal screwup. This will mean little bench strength and party mostly made up of the more ideological members as in safe ridings/ Those MPs usually more right wing thus further convincing public not ready. For NDP, I would advise them to give up on winning and instead focus on stopping Poilievre thus only put resources into ridings where they are main alternative to Conservatives. They should urge like did in Ontario, Liberals to vote strategically as right now it is clear stopping Poilievre is what Canadians want to do most. This will be for a post after election, but I actually believe Conservatives aren’t even likely to win in 2029 and they are at least a decade from returning to power. Off course that is for another post and with world events may get lucky but party has massive structural problems which Poilievre made worse and were only masked thanks to Trudeau’s unpopularity.
afiscalconservativepointofview 
I hope you are right — and I think a lot of people are hoping you are right! But it will be important that no one who wants to see a strong mandate for Carney to deal with Trump stay home on election day – turnout to vote is a must for this election. Whatever policy differences between the two main parties right now, this time in our nation is about the leadership – and PP simply can’t cut it with this president. So I won’t be complacent whatever the polls say, and I hope no one else who wants Carney to be PM is either – we all have to get out and VOTE.
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Absolutely agree and I think due to threat we will see high turnout. Also as long as Tories in 37-38% people will be scared of them winning. In fact its not impossible Poilievre gets higher percentage than Harper did in 2011 but thanks to NDP cratering loses. By same token Carney will likely have best Liberal showing since 1980, maybe even further back.
And for sake of national unity, I hope Liberals breakthrough in Edmonton & Calgary so Smith will think twice about trying to call a separation referendum which is last thing we need. While overall Alberta numbers show Poilievre 25 points ahead, its possible big urban vs. rural divide as he is probably close to 80% in Rural Alberta so if mid to high 50s overall for sure means under 50% in Edmonton and possibly Calgary or at least not much above it meaning still win some but not all seats there.
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It does seem to be that way, although there are some questions about vote efficiency if the Conservatives are at 40% (even if trailing) instead of 32%. There aren’t that many votes to be gained in Alberta and Saskatchewan, so they improved *somewhere*. It may be that they are running up numbers in places like rural Ontario as well, which doesn’t help them, or gaining in Quebec in ridings that they would still lose (after all, they are holding up pretty well there). That said, if the Liberals are running it up in their current ridings, the vote efficiency is not as big of an issue – I’d want to see some riding polls including in safer Liberal seats. I think the last time there was such a two-party race was 1958?
As far as the NDP, I believe their only hope is to try to move farther left, attack the Liberals as a party of the centre-right (even if they are more centre-left still) and hope it brings back the further left voters, even if they are among the most scared voters right now. Attack Carney on cuts and his corporate record. They need to open daylight on the left. I think going for the CPC-NDP targets would be staring at a wipeout, since those ridings are likely flipping blue anyway and they are more populist inclined (which Singh is certainly not). They aren’t as much the types that would be strategic voters as in the “woke” urban NDP ridings (which should, almost without exception, flip to the Liberals).
Interestingly, should the NDP gain a bit or a bit of movement occur due to the “shy Tory” factor, I think the second most likely scenario (after a Liberal majority, the most likely) is a Conservative majority. That is because they would combine for over 320 of the 343 seats, so a minority would require it to be very close.
If I were to guess the numbers right now, it would be LPC 45, CPC 41, NDP 5, BQ 4, GPC 2, PPC 2, others <1.
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With NDP perhaps but I think right now ballot question is who can handle Trump and people have decided Carney and likewise want to stop Poilievre. It seems nowadays most in centre and left are more about stopping Conservatives above anything else. Saw lots of strategic voting in Ontario election (Ford had too big a lead for it to work) and Liberals & NDP all vote NDP provincially in Western Canada. Saw it in British & French elections last year too. In seats Liberal Democrats won, Labour usually got in single digits and vice versa.
In terms of voter efficiency, I don’t think Alberta & Saskatchewan numbers higher overall due to Moe and Smith’s unpopularity in urban areas where probably down. But in rural areas, PPC got over 10% in most in 2021 and I suspect much of that now going Conservative so probably running up margins there. True in Quebec Tories have been surprisingly flat at around 25% or slightly less with no surge last year like other provinces but aren’t falling either. Almost all movement between Liberals & BQ. And that is a problem as 15% to 30% is big difference in votes but in seats makes little difference so CPC up enough in Quebec to get lots of new votes, but not enough to translate into more seats.
I think if wanting to make an educated guess right now, just add CPC + PPC from 2021 while add LPC + 2/3 of NDP and that will probably give you best educated guess on who is ahead. Obviously won’t work across board but still gives best estimate right now. And pretty sure that is Liberal majority.
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Peterborough is a bellwether riding and while it is close, CPC is currently forecast to win. We’ll see how that goes as the Liberal candidate, local Selwyn farmer, Emma Harrison, only launched her campaign on March 25th. Michelle Ferreri has been criticized for being a little loose with her behaviour but she has been generally well liked by locals. If Harrison wins, it will be because of the nature of the time.
Carney is one of those individuals whose leadership is only appropriate for specific times, in this case, a crisis. If it were any other time, he would not enjoy the wide appeal he does. But this is not an ordinary time and Carney has the gravitas people want in a crisis or wartime leader.
Apart from his crisis management skills, who knows if Carney can steer Canada in the right direction on foreign or social policy. I have little confidence he can. He tends to side too quickly with the pro-Palestinians without considering any more than surface arguments for solutions to the hotbed in the middle east. Much of the world has moved on from the facile “two-state” rote solution and on to an Abraham Accords trade-focused solution even if that means relocating many Palestinians to Egypt, the UAE and Qatar. Carney doesn’t understand that the world simply cannot in good conscience allow another October 7th and that there is no way to have the immediate ceasefire he demands without another October 7th because it will leave a belligerent Hamas in power. I also think Carney’s views on climate change are outdated. And I question whether his promises to develop Canada’s resources are disingenuous vote-getting ploys. Anyone who, as he does, believes the world can achieve net zero with all the hot wars in the world is delusional. And immigration cannot continue to increase, as it has been doing, because of how it impacts not only culture but also law. If Canada wants to remain a sovereign free country, we must make major changes to immigration. Either we offer refuge to those seeking it on a temporary basis, so they don’t vote, or we dramatically change our laws and how we assimilate immigrants to ensure our Canadian values, culture and laws – our democracy and human rights – are protected. I do not believe Mark Carney understands the urgency of doing that and I am unnerved by his invitation to MPs who resigned to return as it suggests he wants to continue the destruction of Canadian culture and values we experienced under Trudeau’s leadership. I don’t think he understands the threat posed by certain globally organized crime enterprises that are motivated by theocratic ideologies and I think he may take counsel on those issues from biased and compromised MPs whose loyalty is to theocratic ideology before country. Because of this, I think if Carney wins, we will see significant unrest in both Alberta/Saskatchewan and Quebec.
As soon As Carney announced the election, our HKLB – my riding – CPC MP had signs out everywhere. Ours is a safe CPC riding and our MP Jamie Schmale will campaign in Peterborough and ridings surrounding ours to try to increase their chances. His popularity has gone up and polls show his popularity his highest ever at present. He loves his job and even the opposition loves him.
Poilievre is leader of the CPC but not a typical Conservative. He is a populist Libertarian who pitches mostly to blue-collar Canadians. His “boots-not-suits” slogan doesn’t help him in vote-rich Toronto board rooms. I’d be okay with it if he would adopt Friedman economics and introduce a negative income tax Friedman-style BI that would not only triple the benefits the poorest would receive and all but wipe out the need for shelters and food banks but also save us all $millions by using software to means test eligibility and administer the benefits. But he is not that kind of Libertarian. He has made me nervous because I am unsure of what he intends to do. He is far more controlling than any CPC leader in the past few decades; he doesn’t let ridings fund raise with local projects and he controls the riding websites. He controls what his MPs can say and so I wonder what his leadership as PM would be like. Would he take a Milei chainsaw approach without listening to any feedback (but without the vision of Milei)? What sort of changes would he pursue with the majority government polls were predicting just a month a go? These questions are what many wonder and why so many are unwilling to trust him; they worry he may go rogue like Trump.
What do you think the chances are, if Poilievre doesn’t win this election and if he doesn’t even limit Carney to a minority, of him staying on as leader?
Also, what do you think of Dominic Cardy’s Canadian Future Party?
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I think Peterborough probably goes Liberal as Conservatives only got 39% in 2021. They likely do a bit better but with NDP cratering they need to be over 45% which I don’t think they are thus lose it. Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock likely holds as north of 50% but Liberals probably get close to 40% there but still lose.
On Israel/Palestine, that is a tough issue and suspect will take a backseat to our economic threats. I do hope though Carney comes out strong against Anti-Semitism we are seeing. I think Trump’s idea of Gaza is really dumb. Hamas needs to go but US occupation not solution. Developing it as a tourist area not a bad idea but some of the rich Gulf states like UAE can do this. I would be fine for a multinational peacekeeping force in Gaza after conflict ends to rebuild and ensure it remains free of terrorism.
For Poilievre, unless he beats Carney in seats he is gone as leader. Maybe not on election night but by summer. If wins a plurality but Liberals stay on due to support of other parties then remains leader.
Canadian Future party likely goes nowhere. Only chance they have is if a few sitting MPs defect and if Conservatives lose like I think, most MPs will be from right of party. The more centrist elements mostly in swing ridings I suspect they will lose.
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Thanks for your thoughtful response.
I’d be much more comfortable with a red Tory leader like Michael Chong. The Conservatives I am friends with in Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes feel the same. We also always liked Lisa Raitt and would like to see her return but she may not be able to for family reasons.
I agree Trump’s idea to forcibly displace Gaza’s residents to Sudan and Egypt is unrealistic as well as offensive but I do think Egypt should open their borders and let those residents go who want to relocate and I think the world community should help them relocate. My understanding is the Arab states – UAE, Bahrain, SA – are already in talks about how to administer Gaza and they agree Hamas must go. Iran and its proxies disagree, though, and could cause considerable trouble in the region. Peacekeepers might be helpful provided they aren’t OIC peacekeepers who will enforce for antisemitic interests. I simply no longer trust the UN staff to be impartial with regard to the middle east. And UN peacekeepers unfortunately have a rather bad reputation.
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Absolutely and with Trump threats last thing people want is an ideologue. If Trump wasn’t in picture Poilievre might have done better but Trump destroying him.
Agree on Middle East part.
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