Alberta separatism

After the re-election of the Liberals, some have been pushing the idea Alberta needs to separate. Below I will discuss legal and logistical issues which many seem to ignore, then why it is a bad idea. Also, I think federal government should make separation as difficult as legally possible and if Supreme court allows, even ban option outright. Clarity act provided good starting point, but I believe Carney should submit another reference asking the following questions:

1. Can the federal government block separation?
2. What is highest threshold they can require for a clear majority?
3. Since it requires constitutional amendment, if fewer than 7 out of 10 provinces with over 50% of population agree to amending constitution, does that block separation?
4. What role do First Nations play and can they veto it or at least block it on their territory?
5. If a section of Alberta wishes to remain part of Canada, can they chose to do so?

Getting these answered would help a lot. Also some have suggested joining the US instead which beats me with mess they are in why anyone would want to join them right now. Never mind those that prefer US can just always move there and if cannot get in, while that is their problem not rest of us.

Separating is no easy feat and has loads of logistical problems that would need to be worked out. It is very likely Canada would do everything to make it as unpleasant as possible in order to deter other provinces from trying the same thing. If Alberta separated, it would be required to take over all functions currently done by federal government like military, border controls, pensions etc. As I will explain further down, lack of equalization will not cover the cost of this. There is a thing called economies of scale as anything has a fixed cost so larger the population is, more you can spread it out thus lower cost per person. Likewise what would rules be on citizenship? Could they keep it or would it be cancelled? I prefer cancelling it but that could have issues. And after referendum but before separation would there be a transition period so those who wish to remain in Canada could re-locate to another province? Never mind its not just deal with rest of Canada but also international recognition. Alberta would not have free trade with any country or be a member of the WTO meaning all exports would be subject to very high tariffs which would be very damaging. And no guarantee would get membership in either and even if did, would take years to negotiate meanwhile economy would go into major recession. Also if Canada refused to recognize them, I believe most would follow as most countries want to be on good terms with Canada notwithstanding Trump. Never mind many other countries have own secessionist movements and last thing they want to do is give them any oxygen. So if not recognized internationally, would mean being like Kosovo, Palestine, or Northern Cyprus as a breakaway country with little or no international recognition. Separatists like to paint a rosy picture and refuse to even entertain these problems.

Separating is a bad idea and has zero precedence too. In last century, all countries that have seen a part separate are either culturally distinct or faced human rights abuses. There is no parallel example anywhere in the world of such separation. It would be akin to Bavaria in Germany, Lombardy in Italy, or Southeast region in England separating. Each like Alberta is richer per capita than most of country and tends to be more right wing. But none are culturally distinct and as such have no legitimate reason. Much of what has brought peace and prosperity post WWII has been idea international boundaries should rarely be changed and only done under exceptional circumstances. Once that falls apart, you get political instability like we have never seen before. There are hundreds if not thousands of places globally that have as strong or stronger argument to separate than Alberta showing just how ridiculous it is. Being more economically prosperous or voting differently is not how boundaries of countries are decided. Culture and history determine today’s international borders and Alberta doesn’t have a distinct culture (sure regional differences but not distinct) and it has no history being separate as it was a creation by Canada in 1905 out of the Northwest Territories.

So while no international precedence, separatists will still make usual arguments about how Alberta would be better if its own country ignoring the disruption in the process or logistical issues, so I will address those arguments.

1. Alberta pays $20 billion more in equalization so could save lots of money that would benefit Albertans. This is a myth as equalization is funded out of general tax revenue which all taxpayers in all provinces pay into. Yes Alberta gets nothing, but this is to ensure all provinces are able to provide comparable social programs as part of being Canadian means things like education and health care are rights of being a Canadian citizen which all have equal access to regardless of income or where they live. Fact is those with highest incomes no matter where they live pay most in and those with lowest least in, which is a function of a progressive tax system. Because on average Albertans make more, a higher percentage are in higher brackets than elsewhere but you have rich people in every province and low income in all including Alberta.
2. Alberta gets less in transfer payments vs. pays in. Social programs get funding based on how many use them not population. OAS is only available to those over 65 and since Alberta has fewer per capita above that age, will correspondingly get less. In fact, it is quite common for people to work in Alberta but retire in BC so on paper looks like sending more out but really same person getting it back just in a different province.
3. Albertans work harder while other provinces are moochers. That is total hogwash. Alberta is richer because it is on top of a lot of oil, not because they work harder than others. If there was no oil, it would be a have not province. Interestingly enough most other Canadians would have no problem supporting them because that is what we do as Canadians: help each other.
4. Canada’s economy would collapse without Alberta. Also false as Alberta is 15% of GDP nationally and as important as oil and gas are, we have many other sectors too. Even in Alberta, oil and gas is only 16% of GDP. We are a diversified economy and province that is biggest economic engine overall is Ontario not Alberta. Yes Alberta is richer per capita than Ontario, but in terms of total GDP contributes much less.
5. Federal government keeps blocking pipelines. I support pipelines but they are complex process and if Alberta separated guaranteed they would get blocked. Using UN rule is silly as while true countries cannot block access to sea for landlocked countries; it is routinely done as Chile is doing with Bolivia. Being part of Canada makes getting pipelines to tidewater far more likely.
6. Federal government won’t listen to us. Alberta has fewer people than BC yet plays a much bigger role in our politics and even had a prime-minister for 9.5 years from Alberta while current one grew up there. It may not be centre of attention, but they play a bigger role than BC does.
7. Fact Eastern Canada keeps electing Liberals is why should separate. Maybe choose better Conservative leaders as its not like Conservatives in last 3 elections lost by a lot so if choose someone more moderate with greater appeal elsewhere could win. Besides maybe like BC and Ontario, better to elect a mix of MPs, not all Conservatives. That would probably help the province more in long term.
8. Albertans are pro freedom and small government while rest of Canada wants big government socialism. This is vastly oversimplifying things and false. Alberta is not a libertarian province and while separatists may want Alberta to be their libertarian wet dream most Albertans do not. In fact Alberta spends more per capita than most provinces while for middle income earners, taxes are higher than in BC and Ontario. It is only province with a government owned bank, ATB so idea Alberta is this pro freedom small government province and everyone else big government socialists is complete hogwash. Reality is Alberta like all other provinces has a capitalist economic system with government regulation and a strong social safety net. Its really a matter of degree and even there not so clear Alberta is more small government than others.

So in summary idea of Alberta separating is reckless and benefits absolutely no one. Canada is one of the greatest countries on earth even if imperfect, so idea we should blow apart one of most successful countries we have ever seen is utter lunacy. We are not perfect and yes our relative rankings have slid in last 10 years, but we still rank in top 20 and in some cases top 10. And we can work towards improving areas where underperforming not blowing it all up. No perfect or ideal country has ever existed; all are flawed to some extent. So when talking about how well doing, lets compare to actual real countries that exist rather than fictional ones. And on that count, we do pretty damn good even if not quite perfect. On social media you have lots of disruptors pushing the idea Canada is a third world hell hole, but we are not. Wanting better is a very patriotic thing but wanting to destroy country is not. And if really dislike country, nothing stopping one from moving elsewhere. That only impacts that individual and maybe family but not everyone else. I have no issues with people who wish to move elsewhere, but big problem with those who want to rip apart the country.