As I do every year, here are my predictions for next year. With how chaotic things are, I suspect I will get many wrong. After all at this time last year, it was near certain Conservatives would win in Canada, highly likely right would win in Norway, and L/NP had slight edge in Australia. Instead Liberals had a massive comeback and won, Labour got re-elected in Norway and Labor in Australia won biggest landslide in over a generation. So as they say events dear boy events.
Americas:
Canada:
Federal: Poilievre wins leadership review with around 80% support but his problems don’t end there. 2 more Conservative MPs cross the floor to Liberals and Liberals pick up Edmonton-Riverbend in by-election. This gives Liberals a workable majority. Heather McPherson becomes next NDP leader. BC Conservatives too early to say but leader chosen is from right wing of party not moderate. Recalls in Alberta all fail to get enough signatures but show a lot of anger at Smith. NDP will pull ahead and have a 5 point lead by this time next year. Federally as Carney gets stuff done, his lead widens with Conservatives falling to about 35% by this point next year.
Quebec: PQ wins but fear of another referendum leads to them falling short of majority. Liberals with new leader make a surprising recover. CAQ gets wiped out. Conservatives win at least one seat but fewer than five. All in Chaudiere-Appalaches
No other provincial or federal elections
United States
House: Democrats narrowly win house but at lot closer than expected
Senate: GOP keeps this as while Democrats have net gain of 2 seats, it is still 51-49.
Governors: Democrats hold and gain a few but largely status quo
Brazil: Right defeats Lula confirming right wing trend sweeping Latin America. Trump intervenes threatening to cut off funding if don’t vote for right wing candidate like did in Argentina and Honduras but has little impact either way
Europe
Cyprus: centre-right Democratic Rally is re-elected and forms a coalition with other centrist parties. Far right gets in high teens due to concerns on immigration
Denmark: Social Democrats come in first, but right which is much more divided comes out ahead with Blue Bloc coming ahead of Red Bloc. Far right combined gets record being in high teens.
Germany: AfD comes in first in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony Anhalt and forming coalition a herculean nightmare. CDU takes Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Wurttemberg and both involve some grand coalition with former being red-black and latter red-green. AfD in both gets around 20% showing gains in former Western regions. CDU comes in first in Berlin, but red-red-green coalition formed.
Hungary: Orban despite united front and tight polls, pulls off another win showing country further sliding into authoritarianism
Latvia: Right and far right dominate while centrist and left of centre parties do horrible. Some right wing coalition
Slovenia: Slovenian Democrats on far right come in first but neither past centre-right and centre-left have majority but in end new parties side with Slovenian Democrats allowing Janez to become PM again.
Spain: All three regional elections see centre-right PP come in first while Vox gains and PSOE sinks so right easily forms a majority in all three.
Sweden: Tido parties who form government have a surprising come back denying left wing parties a win but following European trend to right.
United Kingdom: Reform comes in first in Wales, but Plaid Cymru forms government by forming a coalition with Labour + Liberal Democrats. SNP wins Scotland, but Reform surges to over 20% and combined right exceeds 30% which has never been seen since devolution.
Asia
Israel: Likud under Bibi once again comes first and forms coalition with far right parties
Thailand: PTP on centre-right ousts centre-left government
India: Modi’s NDA alliance wins 3 of 5 state elections picking up one doesn’t hold currently.
Oceania
Australia: Labor holds South Australia, but L/NP picks up Victoria from Labor
New Zealand: National + ACT win enough seats to form a coalition without including New Zealand First. Centre-left has massive disappointment as Labour gains but Greens fall and Maori party due to infighting underperforms.
afiscalconservativepointofview 
Oh yes events dear one and all, events!! I hope you are wrong on some of these, especially Brazil, Sweden, Latvia and some others. But we won’t find 2026 to be a sleepy year, of that I am sure. Onwards with hope, but also clear eyed…..
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Europe is taking a sharp turn right and not sure that will be easily stopped. Musk with social media and Russia actively meddling and pushing far right parties and with percentage of Europeans with post secondary education lower than Canada, that is why having more success. Also Europe has fewer living in large cities per capita so another big reason right more successful. Canada’s very high urbanization and post secondary educated in many ways is what is saving us from global trend.
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Sweeping predictions. Que sera, sera. May your holy days be happy and the New Year prosperous.
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You too
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I’m not familiar with overseas elections (especially below the federal level), but for the US, my thinking right now is that the Democrats get about a 10-seat majority in the House. They are overperforming, but the question is how much can they as things move forward? We won’t know until summer if a true blue wave is coming or just a “neutral” election (think 2020 or 2022). The irony is that the GOP gerrymander in Texas may only net them 2 seats because they were depending on Hispanics voting like in 2024, which seems unlikely.
Agreed with 51-49 GOP edge in the Senate. Maine and North Carolina are the best opportunities for a flip, while Michigan is probably the best chance for a GOP flip (open seat), followed by Georgia (although there’s recruitment challenges so far so I think Ossoff has an advantage) – beyond that Democrats should be okay everywhere else. It would be a real stretch to get any closer, with the most likely states being Ohio, Iowa or Alaska, and they are all fairly red states so it would require a real blue wave to overcome.
In terms of governors, I think Kansas is the most likely flip to the GOP (red state even if trending somewhat leftward + incumbent termed out), while Michigan and Wisconsin (both open) are tossups, Hobbs in Arizona is only a slight favourite and Shapiro in Pennsylvania is a moderate favourite. As far as red seats the Democrats could flip, the open seat in Georgia is a tossup, while Lombardo in Nevada is a slight favourite to hold. Vermont really depends on whether (very moderate) Phil Scott runs again. If he runs, he’s very safe despite being a Republican, while if he retires, the seat likely flips to the Democrats. Longshot targets for the Democrats are in Alaska, Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio, while longshot Republican targets are in Maine, Minnesota New Mexico, New York and Oregon.
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I would say most of those two. Florida, Iowa, and Ohio went for Obama both times but now solid red states so winning those even in a blue wave a real long shot. I think with how polarized US is, a 50 seat majority in house is impossible for either party even in a wave election. Many more moderate suburban districts in blue states GOP could win in a red wave year are now gone while many working class areas Democrats used to be competitive in, in red states also gone. Ticket splitting even as recently as 2010 still existed while today only exists in sense of those who vote for president but leave rest blank. Biggest thing in favour of Democrats is white college educated voters are group with highest propensity to show up and pre Trump they favoured GOP but now favour Democrats. Unlike under Obama, I would argue low turnout benefits Democrats while high turnout, at least if Trump is on ballot benefits GOP as Trump actually lost more traditional Republicans to Democrats than he gained traditional Democrats. He won twice by bringing out many who normally just stayed home and didn’t vote at all.
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