2018 Political Predictions

I will have a more detailed blog up in the new year on recent issues, but for now just wanted to make my political predictions now as this will be the last blog of the year.

British Columbia

1. The NDP led minority government will not fall this year and John Horgan will still be premier in a year’s time
2. The PR referendum in the fall will pass (ughh!!!)
3. Andrew Wilkinson will be the next BC Liberal leader (This one I am least sure about as no clear frontrunner so going out on a limb here).
4. Gregor Robertson will lose in the Vancouver municipal election this fall (yippie!!! if it happens).

Saskatchewan

1. Ken Cheveldayoff will become the next Saskatchewan Party leader and next premier of Saskatchewan
2. Ryan Mielli will be the next NDP leader and leader of the opposition

Ontario

1. The Ontario PC’s led by Patrick Brown win a majority while the Liberals led by Wynne form the official opposition and NDP remains in third
2. 2 of the 3 provincial parties begin new leadership races, most likely the Liberals and NDP

Quebec

1. The Liberals led by Philippe Couillard are re-elected but with only a minority while the CAQ moves up to opposition but falls short of power and the PQ is reduced to third place.

New Brunswick

1. The New Brunswick Liberals under Brian Gallant are re-elected with a majority for a second term.

United States

1. Democrats gain the House in midterm elections
2. Senate remains Republican as only 8 GOP seats up for grabs while 25 Democrats are so Democrat gains are cancelled out by GOP ones.
3. Democrats gain several state legislatures and governorships, but still the GOP has the edge here with 20-25 states with Democrat governors vs. the current 16 and 25-30 with GOP governors.
4. NAFTA is not terminated and still in tact by this time next year

Mexico

1. Leftist party, Morena wins the election

Germany

1. The Jamaica coalition is formed around April and Merkel begins her fourth term.

United Kingdom

1. Despite the Brexit woes, the Conservative-DUP agreement remains in place and Theresa May is still prime-minister in a year from now.

Italy

1. The Centre-right coalition wins a plurality of votes, but falls short of the 40% needed to get a majority thus needs to form a coalition and what happens after that is anybody’s guess.

So lets see how many of these turn out to be true.