Last post was about what I thought would happen, next will be what I want to happen.
British Columbia
1. As much as I don’t like the NDP, its probably better they don’t fall this year. I feel if the government falls this year, the NDP will just win a majority so give them time to mess up and for the BC Liberals to rebuild.
2. I hope the PR referendum is resoundingly defeated so we can put this issue to bed for many years. I will have more on this throughout the year.
3. I am still undecided on who I will support for the next BC Liberal leader but unlike in the Tory leadership race, I feel all six are good candidates with many good ideas and plan to throw my full support behind whomever wins. By contrast in the federal Tory leadership race, there are some (i.e. Kellie Leitch, Brad Trost, Pierre Lemieux) who I could not vote for in a general election, whereas that is not the case with any of the six BC Liberal candidates.
4. I not only hope Gregor Robertson loses, I hope the NPA wins the mayor and majority on council. Replacing one left wing municipal administration with another (which I fear may happen) will ensure the current problems continue.
Saskatchewan
1. None of the Saskatchewan Party candidates really stand out as inspiring, but I don’t either find any of them particularly scary so don’t really care.
2. Don’t care who the NDP chooses as I am not an NDP supporter, but if I were advising my NDP friends, I would suggest they go with Ryan Mielli.
Ontario
1. I hope the PCs win a majority with around 70-75 seats. Large enough they don’t have to worry about their government falling over a few by-election losses, but small enough there is still a strong opposition that will keep them on their toes as I find when governments feel they are invincible they are more likely to make bad decisions.
2. The next Liberal leader should probably be a younger one who is not too closely tied to the past administration. Someone who is fairly centrist too as I don’t think swinging leftward is good for the province long term. NDP probably would be wise to choose someone more on the left in terms of winning seats but I would never support the NDP. If the PCs lose, the next leader should be someone who is moderate like Brown but a bit more relatable to the average person; I don’t support swinging the party rightwards as that will just ensure another loss.
Quebec
1. I would like to see the Liberals under Philippe Couillard re-elected with a majority, the CAQ form the official opposition and PQ get wiped off the map. Couillard has done a good enough job that he deserves re-election, but CAQ’s platform seems decent so won’t be upset if they win, but as a rule of thumb I generally believe you re-elect someone when they do a good job regardless of the alternatives. Only if they do a so-so job do you elect an alternative that has a more appealing platform.
New Brunswick
1. I hope the PCs win a majority. Gallant is not as bad as Wynne or Trudeau, but I still feel he is following similar policies so New Brunswick can do better. And unlike in some provinces further westward, the PCs have always been of a Red Tory variety in Atlantic Canada so no reason to worry about them being too right wing.
United States
1. I hope the Democrats make massive gains in congressional elections and take the house. Some individual GOP members may deserve re-election but they are far and few. The vast majority have put their party ahead of their country.
2. I hope the Democrats also gain the senate. While you have some like Jeff Flake (who is not running again) who I could support, none of the eight up for re-election are one’s I can endorse.
3. Democrats gain the majority of state legislatures particularly in key swing states so they can get rid of the gerrymandered districts and also remove laws that are made to reduce voter turnout amongst groups that generally don’t vote GOP. There are a few GOP governors such as Charlie Baker of Massachusetts and Larry Hogan of Maryland who deserve to be re-elected, but relatively few and most GOP governors I could support are usually in solid blue states meaning they need to have a broader appeal than their federal counterparts to win, thus more moderate.
4. Hope NAFTA stays in tact. The agreement has been a huge boon to all three countries and while maybe there are a few tweaks that could be made, there is absolutely zero reason to blow it up.
Mexico
1. Hope the centre-right PAN wins as they are the most pro free trade and their former leader Vicente Fox is a strong opponent of Trump, so hoping they can act as a strong partner in pushing back against the rising protectionism in the US.
Germany
1. Prefer a Jamaica coalition to a Grand Coalition. While policy wise probably won’t make much difference, I believe the former is better for democracy. Junior partners always take a hit so if there is another grand coalition I fear it could damage the SPD so much they never return to power and all democracies require a strong second place party who can oust the government when they overstay their welcome. I would never vote for them if I were German as I am centre-right, but all healthy democracies have a centre-right and centre-left alternative.
United Kingdom
1. Until the Brexit is fully completed I believe having another election would be a disaster. For good or ill, the clock is ticking so you need a stable government not one distracted by an election. Of the possible Tory contenders I am not sure any would be better than May. Boris Johnson is very capable and I agree with him on a lot, but seems like a bit of a buffoon too often and probably not someone you want during tough negotiations, otherwise fine if everything was going smoothly but not now. Amber Rudd might be better, but she only won her constituency by around 300 votes so real risk the Tories could win, but she loses her seat, so if she runs, she should promise to switch to a safer seat. Also when in negotiations like this, better to stick with whom you have than change as that just weakens one’s hand.
Italy
1. All three choices suck so glad I am not having to make a heart wrenching decision here. The centre-right includes Lega Nord who are way too extreme for me. For the centre-left, Matteo Renzi is fine, but much of the party wants to drop him and replace him with someone more left wing so voting for them risks a Corbynite like leader potentially becoming PM. The Five Star Movement are a protest movement who are good at criticizing what is wrong, but terrible at actually offering any realistic solutions.
So with both predictions and hopes listed, lets see how I do on both fronts.
afiscalconservativepointofview 