Ontario preliminary prediction

There are still ten days to go and a lot can happen, that being said at this point, I think the most likely outcome is an NDP majority, albeit a very narrow one.  The reasons for my thinking are as follows.

  1.  Liberals are in such bad shape they will likely win fewer than five seats, possibly zero, thus making a majority as opposed to minority most probable.
  2. PCs have a strong base, but Ford has been unable to expand beyond their core support.  As such I expect more undecided voters to break for the NDP than PCs
  3. Some soft Liberals realizing the NDP is the best way to stop Ford will break for the NDP too
  4. NDP has the momentum and its been a gradual climb not a massive surge at once, but there is no sign of slowing down and I believe on election day NDP will be 3-4 points ahead which is enough to win.

Now yes PCs still can win including a majority, but often leadership approvals are a good lead indicator and I have never seen someone elected as premier with leadership approval ratings as bad as Doug Ford’s.  True PCs are more motivated to show up so that might give a slight ballot box bonus, but that will easily be cancelled out by their poor showing amongst undecided voters.  The NDP platform is very left wing, but I don’t think policy played a big role in driving voter intentions.  People wanted the Liberals gone and thus turned to the PCs.  When they turned to the PCs they didn’t like what they saw so Howarth likely wins by simply being the last person standing.  I off course hope the NDP doesn’t win, but everything I’ve seen to date as well as past experience suggests to me this is the most likely outcome.  At the moment I would give the following odds due to the closeness: 70% chance NDP wins the popular vote; 60% chance NDP wins most seats, 40% chance it is a majority.  30% chance PCs win the popular vote, 40% chance they win the most seats, and 20% chance it is a majority, so while none are over 50% the odds of it being premier Horwath come July 1st are far greater than premier Ford.  Off course I will watch things closely and may revise my predictions as things change, but at this point I am confident enough in my prediction I would be willing to bet $10 with anyone that Horwath will be the next premier of Ontario.  Off course if polls strengthen in the NDP’s favour, I would be willing to bet an even higher amount while if they slide a bit then I wouldn’t want to bet on it, but if the PCs do win, it will be a narrow scrape by.  I cannot see the PCs getting over 40% or more than 70 seats and considering the optimal conditions they should be at 45% or higher and getting at least 80 seats.

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