Well the big bombshell so far of the campaign has dropped. In terms of impact, I think it is much too early and I am one of those who think it probably won’t have that much as most of us have made stupid mistakes as some point in our lifetime, so if mistakes mean a lifetime political sentence, we will have a very limited pool to choose from. Nonetheless, it does mean whenever the Liberals attack the Tories as racist or intolerant based on videos over a decade old, the Liberals will look like hypocrits. I personally don’t think Trudeau did this to be offensive, although I do agree with many that it is insensitive and inappropriate. Certainly in North America, the history of black faced actors goes back to the slave era when many whites would do plays dressed as Blacks to mock them, so has a strong negative history. On the other hand in Netherlands, every December they have a festival with Sinter Klaas and his helpers known as Zwarte Piet are black faced and just googling this showed 90% of Dutch were okay with this. Although we are not the Netherlands and in North America, the history of this is a lot more negative. I think the impact will take a week or so and will also depend if this is one off or if more bombshells emerge. I don’t believe this on its own will sink Trudeau’s campaign, but if enough further bombshells emerge, may play into the idea that Trudeau is unfit to be PM.
Trudeau Blackface
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I believe this is a lifeline to the NDP and Greens more than anyone.
The voters turned off are unlikely to turn to the Conservatives on this issue alone, since their “range” is pretty narrow (i.e. from their base at 28-30% to their ceiling at 40-42%) and the voters who think this is a problem tend to be on the left side of the spectrum. The small number of swing voters who tend to be slightly right of centre probably wouldn’t be swung on this as they tend to focus more on economic issues.
However, this could do serious damage in places like Toronto, Vancouver and perhaps Montreal, where racial tolerance is absolutely essential. If the NDP and Greens play the cards well here, they could really do damage to the Liberals in those ridings (although the NDP would lose any chance they had left in other parts of Quebec). It could help the Conservatives win some swing suburban ridings though if the Liberal vote partially splinters off.
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I agree it could help NDP most as Singh responded quite well. If Tories benefit, it will be more because many Liberal voters disgusted with options just stay home which is a real risk as Tory base is far more motivated than Liberal base this time around. I agree Tories if they gain will be more on economics, although in Ontario they are struggling due to extreme unpopularity of Doug Ford, so anything that takes Doug Ford out of the news helps them there, although wouldn’t be surprised if he returns to the news.
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