With polls now coming in fast and furious, it looks like a nail biter with a lot of possibilities. Yesterday I discussed my disappointment, today I will discuss what I think will happen and of the possibilities what they mean and which is best. In terms of popular vote, I think it could go either way and would be shocked if either of the two main parties fall below 30% or go above 35%. With seats, a lot of possibilities, but believe Liberal minority is the most likely, but a Liberal majority and Conservative plurality are both within the realm of possibility if either outperforms polls or does a better job in getting their supporters out. Unless there is a massive polling error like in BC in 2013, I am quite confident a Tory majority will not happen. Simply speaking, its not possible to achieve one if trailing in Atlantic Canada by double digits, distant third in Quebec, and behind in Ontario. When looking at regions, I suspect Atlantic Canada will go mostly Liberal, but not a complete sweep and probably a few Tory pick ups and maybe even an NDP or Green. For Quebec, it will be a close race, but my gut instinct is Liberals win popular vote there but Bloc Quebecois wins more seats as BQ vote is more efficient due to lead amongst Francophones while Liberals tend to run up the margins on Island of Montreal. Nevertheless Bloc Quebecois which looked dead not too long ago is once again back as a political force even if not at its heyday levels of the 90s. The Tories will win some seats in Quebec, but more likely to lose than gain thanks to Scheer’s poor showing in French debates. NDP will lose most, but Singh’s strong performance on campaign trail will likely avoid a wipeout. In Ontario, I suspect Liberals to win majority of seats but anything from similar results to 2015 to somewhat tighter seems within the realm of possibility, but would be shocked if Tories beat them in seats or votes. Prairies should go mostly Tory, but both NDP and Liberals will win a few urban ridings although Alberta could be a complete Tory sweep and maybe Saskatchewan although less likely. Manitoba should see Tories come in front, but be more competitive than other two Prairie provinces. BC is a real mix, but I think Tories will do better than last time, Liberals lose some ground but stay strong in Lower Mainland, NDP could go either way with a lot depending on millennial turnout and the higher that is, the better they do, the lower that is the worse they do. Greens win a few seats on Vancouver Island but nothing north of Nanaimo or east of Georgia Strait.
Assuming the only options are Liberal majority, Liberal minority, or Conservative plurality, the first two are my preferences. While I plan to vote Tory as I believe Trudeau needs to be punished for his bad governance, I fear a Conservative plurality just means either a left wing coalition or a left wing supply and confidence and both would be disastrous for the country. Never mind Andrew Scheer would likely to stay on and I get the impression Canadians took a look at him and said thanks but no thanks so I just don’t see how Tories next time around can win a majority with him as leader. In first case scenario, it is status quo, while second will be issue by issue so more left wing but at least only 2-3 years not a full four years. More importantly if Scheer cannot defeat Trudeau with all his flaws, he will have a tough time staying on as leader. I suspect with Tories have a better shot than what was assumed in 2017 so the quality of candidates will be better next time around. So while I will be unhappy to see Justin Trudeau continue to be prime-minister, I will not be upset to see Scheer go as Tory leader. Anyways I will try to blog as results on first results on Atlantic Canada tomorrow and then a full post on Tuesday once we have final results and speeches from leaders.