Joe Biden yesterday not only won South Carolina, he won big, so without question he is back in the game. Yes the state is a fairly conservative one so Democrats there tend to be more conservative than in most states and Bernie Sanders has struggled with African-Americans, particularly over 40 and in the South (he does well amongst younger African-Americans particularly in urban centres in North and West). What this means is for moderates whose main goal is to stop Bernie Sanders from winning the nomination, Joe Biden is undoubtedly the frontrunner. While my preference is still Amy Klobuchar, stopping Bernie Sanders trumps choosing the best one so at this point Biden looks like the best one to do that. Not only are Bernie Sander’s policies too radical, they could kill Democrats chances at winning senate, possibly cost them the House and also several state legislatures meaning the redrawing of boundaries will once again be favourable to the GOP. While some point to polls with Sanders performing well, looking below the surface says problems there. Much of his success is predicated on bringing out voters who normally don’t vote and while he would achieve that to some degree, there would need to be a turnout like never seen before. While most Democrats will vote Democrat no matter who is the leader as there is a strong desire to defeat Trump, there are enough states that margins matter a lot and Sanders would not do well amongst swing voters which is more important than new ones who show up. With the Coronavirus and weakening economy, I believe Trump is more vulnerable than he was at the beginning of the year so its important the Democrats chose right if they want to win. Maybe Sanders like Trump will defy expectations but Trump is such a risky leader there is no time for taking risks, better to play it safe.
UPDATE: Buttigieg has dropped out so big news ahead of Super Tuesday. Should help Biden do well amongst moderates. I think Buttigieg still has a bright future in politics and he is young enough that in either 2024 or 2028, he has a good chance of being Democrat leader so I wouldn’t count him out of someday becoming president. For Bernie Sanders, Bloomberg, and Joe Biden, this is their final chance and same probably for Elizabeth Warren too so don’t win this time, likely will never get a chance to be president.
UPDATE 2: Amy Klobuchar is dropping out and while now endorse Biden. While she was my first choice I fully understand her decision as she had no path forward. I hope Biden choses her as Vice-President candidate as she would be an asset there. At this point main goal must be to stop Bernie Sanders so Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropping out helps. Now just need Bloomberg to do the same.
2 thoughts on “Joe Biden’s big win in South Carolina”
The big problem for Buttigieg is that, other than a Cabinet position in a future administration under a Democratic President, he has no realistic pathway forward.
South Bend is in IN-2 which is safely Republican and he wouldn’t have a prayer of winning it even in the best circumstances (the rural areas surrounding are VERY conservative; it’s nearly impossible to draw a Democratic district focused on South Bend after the 2020 census without gerrymandering). He could parachute himself into IN-1 (Chicago suburbs, starts one county west of South Bend) which is open in 2020 and Democrat-leaning, but he’d have a bruising primary to get through and not being local could hurt him there.
As far as statewide office, he’d be a serious underdog even with his name recognition if he tried to run for Governor or Senator (whether against a GOP incumbent or in an open seat).
Very true, still by running this time has the name recognition which helps next time. Also likely if Democrats win especially if under Biden, not sure about Bernie Sanders, would probably get a cabinet post. But true Indiana is a fairly red state. Went for Obama in 08 but that was largely due to the recession and looks like a one off not a long term trend unlike say Colorado and Virginia as well as North Carolina to a lesser extent.