Super Tuesday Predictions

I will have more on this once results come in.  California due to mail in ballots could take a while especially close.  But anyways here are my predictions on winners.

Biden

Virginia (comfortable not blowout)

North Carolina (comfortable not blowout)

Tennessee (comfortable not blowout)

Alabama (Blowout, his biggest win)

Oklahoma (comfortable not blowout

Arkansas (comfortable not blowout)

Minnesota (narrow win)

Texas (narrow win)

Sanders

Vermont (blowout, his biggest win)

Maine (comfortable not blowout)

Massachusetts (narrow win over Warren, Biden comes in fourth)

Colorado (Bernie’s second best state)

Utah (Comfortable not blowout)

California (narrow win)

I think Biden with endorsements and dropouts and big South Carolina has momentum so I believe he will slightly outperform polls.

4 thoughts on “Super Tuesday Predictions

  1. i thought bernie was going to win minnesota because he would benefit massively from klobs dropping out. if yiu are right it’s pretty unlikely sanders wins the dem primary.

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    1. Minnesota as a state itself lends itself more to Bernie Sanders than Biden, but Klobuchar is very popular there and she is a moderate and endorsed Biden so I think most of her supporters (although not all) will go over to Biden. Also with Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropping out, I think Bloomberg will underperform in all states as many of his go tactically to Biden. At same token Warren will underperform too helping Sanders, but she has been underperforming all along.

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  2. Thanks Miles. I’d be interested what your predictions reveal in terms of numbers, and what it would take for Biden to catch up/surpass the Bernie.

    Maybe you noticed – today in NP there was an article about the risk to Bernie of a mutiny by the Dem Party brass that would derail his ability to win irrespective of the numbers from the primaries.

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    1. Haven’t calculated that and kind of tough as polls for primaries give general indication but tend to have much bigger misses than general election ones do. I think Bernie Sanders by the end of the night will still be slightly ahead of Biden, but by less than 100 points.

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