Super Tuesday

It was a great night for Joe Biden who not only won all the states I predicted, but even won Massachusetts and might win Maine.  For sanders it won’t be quite as bad as headlines on delegate count as he will win California and while losing Texas, only slightly behind there so almost equal in delegates.  Still it shows the impact of moderates coalescing behind one candidate to prevent a Sander’s win.  I think many in Democrats learned from GOP mistake in 2016 where they didn’t unite behind an establishment candidate soon enough and by the time they started to even consider it, Trump already had the nomination locked up.  Bloomberg as I predicted underperformed and has dropped out and endorsed Biden.  Warren has not and I am agnostic on whether she should or not.  She is definitely too left wing to win, but not as radical as Sanders.  Joe Biden still has weaknesses and provided Coronavirus is not badly bungled by administration, I still think Trump is the favourite.  But at least with Biden it should be a competitive race.  Still it is not over and to keep the party united it is important Biden win a majority of delegates not a plurality as the Sander’s crowd are not very tolerant of others and generally take the my way or highway position.  Likewise due to Biden’s age, I believe who he chooses as vice president will matter more.  I would suggest Amy Klobuchar, but Kamala Harris or even Andrew Yang are worthy of considerations.  Julian Castro is another since despite supporting Warren he can help with Latino community where he struggles.

I think results on Super Tuesday should put to bed idea Bernie Sanders is most electable.  Sander’s argument was he could bring out droves of new voters yet this time he massively underperformed 2016 and those who showed up skewed heavily towards older voters showing this idea of this huge untapped youth vote eager to vote for a staunch left winger is largely a mirage.  Also with Biden, good chance Democrats hold house whereas with Sanders would likely lose it.  And with Biden an outside chance Democrats might win the senate, but still a long shot whereas no chance with Sanders.  Democrats will lose Alabama, but are in good shape to pick up Colorado.  Arizona, North Carolina, and Maine would be the other pickups and maybe Iowa if really lucky but last one is a real long shot.  If they pick up those four senate seats and win white house, they would gain senate.  Some suggests Biden won’t excite people the way Sanders does, but I’ve found nowadays people vote less for who they want and more vote for the candidate who is most likely to stop who they don’t want.  Most progressives hate Trump with a passion so will vote Democrat no matter what.  Many moderates who reluctantly voted for Trump in 2016 are looking for a reasonable alternative as you saw in Midterms and so main thing for Democrats to win over this group is not be too scary.  Someone like Sanders would be too scary thus would vote Trump or not vote at all or vote for a third party.

Also good news for Conservatives in Canada.  One of the real dangers is we have a strong left wing element in this country who wants to swing radically to the left but is reluctant to do so as we are a cautious country.  A win by Sanders in general election or even strong second would embolden them to go much further left so hopefully we don’t have to worry about that.

3 thoughts on “Super Tuesday

  1. My Senate ratings right now:

    Safe D – DE, IL, MA, NJ, OR, RI, VA
    Likely D – MN, NH, NM (open)
    Leaning D – CO (pickup), MI
    Tossup – AZ, ME, NC
    Leaning R – IA
    Likely R – GA, GA (special), KS (open), TX
    Safe R – AK, AL (pickup), AR, ID, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN (open), WV, WY (open)

    I agree about Iowa being a reach. The two Georgia seats are also a reach…it’s a state that is close to flipping but not there yet and they haven’t drawn a strong candidate at this time, plus the fact that they require runoffs if no one reaches 50% makes it even harder in a one-on-one race. Kansas is dependent on Kris Kobach being the nominee, who is seen as too far right even for Kansas (he lost the Governor’s race in 2018 for that reason, despite the state being so solidly red). It would probably be Leaning R with him but Safe R otherwise.

    On the GOP side, their next best hope (after the virtually certain Alabama pickup) is Michigan, but that would likely require a Trump over-performance from 2016. They have the same strong candidate they had in 2018 who lost by about 7 points. Beyond that, the pickings are slim for them – they have struggled to draw strong candidates to races that could be somewhat decent targets like Minnesota and New Hampshire.

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  2. Also it looks like California is tightening a bit right now. Supposedly I heard that biden led the election day vote in california by 22 points. If that is true biden will either barely win california or barely lose it. This will make it a lot harder for sanders to catch up to biden in terms of delegates especially once certain states like florida vote.

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    1. Sanders got roughly the same in early and Super Tuesday votes, where the difference was, was Klobuchar and Buttigieg were still in the race when many early voters voted thus hurting Biden more than Sanders. Also after those two dropped out, it appears a lot of Bloomberg supporters flipped to Biden feeling he was the best moderate to stop Sanders as Bloomberg did much better with early vote than Super Tuesday one.

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