My Predictions for US election

Below are both maps of my predictions with descriptions. I give maps for President, senate, and Governor race while for House I will just give general blurb of what I think swing will be, don’t have all the details on how each district will go. Under each I will list ones that I am still uncertain of and think could go differently.

President

Below is map of what I think is most likely to happen and if this happens Biden wins with 334 electoral votes to 204 for Trump. In popular vote, I predict Biden wins by 8 points with popular vote being 53% to 45%.

I can say with a reasonably high degree of confidence, I believe Biden will hold every state Clinton won four years ago. Not certain, but chances of Trump flipping any are low. In fact bigger question is which Clinton states does Biden win by single digits. My guess is only Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Unless polls are spectacularly wrong, I am pretty confident Biden will flip both Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is a bit tighter due to greater polarization, but I still think Biden wins it by around 5 points. Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina I am much less confident about. I think Biden has edge in all three and would be surprised if Trump wins all of them, but would not be surprised the least bit if Trump holds one of them. They are all within margin of error so turnout differences or undecided breaking one way or even just margin of error with polling is enough Trump could hold any of those. But here is the thing: Biden doesn’t need to win these three, just added bonus; Trump must win them. Georgia is probably closest to tossup and my rule of thumb is whenever truly split, always break for incumbent, but really its a flip of the coin. Off course even if Biden falls a bit short, the fact this normally red state is in play should be very worrisome for Trump campaign. Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, I all give to Trump but all three are close enough I would not be least bit shocked if Biden wins any of them. I would be surprised if he wins all three, but very happy. But winning one of those very possible. Fact Biden has a better chance of flipping Texas than Trump does of holding Pennsylvania is definitely positive news for Biden. As for the states splitting, I think Biden is clear favorite in Nebraska 02 but Maine 02 I could see going either way but following rule for Georgia, I give it to Trump. Still while I am quite confident Biden will win, Trump still does have a chance albeit small. Living in BC with family in Alberta, I remember quite well the 2013 BC election and 2012 Alberta election and polling miss of that size would be enough for Trump to win. But with polls steady and US being so polarized I believe that is unlikely. I don’t buy the shy Trump argument. I’ve found Trump supporters if anything are quite proud and in your face so while some shy Trump supporters may exist, its likely so small it won’t make much difference. I also believe there are some shy Biden supporters. If anything I think if the community one lives in votes heavily one way and person plans to vote another; you are more likely to see them be afraid to say who they are voting for thus balancing out. And for an added bonus, I predict Trump wins every county in West Virginia and Oklahoma while Biden wins every county in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Hawaii. As for blowouts, I predict Biden gets less than 1/3 of the popular vote in Wyoming and West Virginia while Trump gets below 1/3 in California, DC, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Vermont.

Senate

Unlike with president, senate truly still is a battleground and while I give Democrats a slight edge, I do believe GOP has a decent shot at holding senate. I believe there is a 2 in 3 chance Democrats win senate, but a 1 in 3 chance GOP holds it. My prediction is 51 Democrats to 49 GOP. Below is map of states up for grabs and then a blurb on close ones.

For the senate, I expect GOP to flip Alabama in their favor. Michigan is a possibility but a very long shot and unlikely. As for Democrat pickups, Colorado I expect to be an easy one and fairly confident on Arizona. I expect Mark Kelly to do slightly better than Biden. Maine leans Democrat since although I think Susan Collins outperforms Trump, Trump being very unpopular there will cost her, her seat but probably only by around 3 points, not double digits like Trump will lose by. North Carolina is the tipping point and while extra marital affair of Cunningham has hurt him a bit, I still think he ends up victorious. Iowa is pretty close to a tossup, but most polls show Ernst about 2 points behind Trump and since I am predicting Trump wins Iowa by only one point, I have Ernst losing. But in reality the odds are both go same way unless super close however its about a 60/40 chance Ernst loses while a 60/40 chance Trump holds state. For Georgia, I expect Ossoff to win a plurality, but not crack 50% mark thus triggering a run off. Run offs always have much lower turnouts thus why I show both in Georgia going GOP. If no runoff, I think Democrats would have had much better odds. Ossoff can win, but pretty much needs to get over 50% on election night if he wishes to do so. Montana, South Carolina, Kansas, and Alaska have all been shown to be somewhat competitive. While in all four states I believe Democrat senate candidate will outperform Biden and if a midterm some like Stephen Bullock would be favored; I think with Trump a top ticket and most voting straight ticket, GOP holds all four of these.

House

My guess is Democrats have a net gain of around 10 seats so 245 to 189 so Democrats have a 28 seat cushion. Democrats lose a few, but gain some suburban seats as well as also gain the few districts that voted for Clinton in 2016 but stayed GOP for congress as well as few Trump barely won. Many Romney-Clinton voters voted Republican down ballot in 2016 but after congress has shown unwillingness to keep Trump in check, most of those voters will vote straight Democrat ticket.

Governors

Haven’t followed these as closely, but my prediction is GOP picks up Montana, everything else remains the same so 27-23 advantage for GOP.

2 thoughts on “My Predictions for US election

  1. Miles this is mostly good news overall, worth praying for all day to any god(s) you believe in! And I so appreciate the thorough breakdown. I really hope that the Dems get the Senate as well as the House and the Presidency though – as a GOP Senate will make it so hard for a Biden presidency to start moving the USA ahead with better legislation and saner budgeting and speedier healing from the past 4 years of horrors. I realize that executive orders are a big thing down there, but I really think they need better laws and governance to move past Trumpism with as much haste as possible (and the small t in trumpism is intentional on my part!)

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    1. I am actually hoping Biden also wins Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas too, especially Texas as that will force GOP to expunge Trumpism. But still a step in right direction. My worst fear is Biden only flips Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. That is enough to defeat Trump but close enough election gets questioned causing chaos and also close enough Trumpism lives on and next time GOP wins, we see another Trump like president. He doesn’t just need to lose, he needs to lose badly.

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