Later today or tomorrow, I will post a blog on my predictions on what I think will happen. I am just waiting for final polls, although with almost 100 million already having voted, not sure they will matter as much as in past. So below is what I hope happens, not what I necessarily think will happen. Although my predictions are probably going to be somewhat close, but not quite as good as I want for the Democrats.
For the presidency, I want a massive landslide. A narrow win by Biden isn’t good enough as this election is not just about defeating Trump; its about defeating Trumpism. If Biden only picks up the three Blue wall States, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; it will be enough to get him in the White House. However, with it being that close, expect a chaotic transition and Trump throwing up every road block to stop Biden from becoming president as well as civil unrest. After he is president, GOP will be obstructionist and will continue to push their extreme policies and strong chance in 2024, either Trump himself, a member of his family, or another GOP member with very similar views wins GOP nomination. Since Joe Biden has a very tough road ahead with the crisis in the country, its likely in 2024 there will some tightening much like 2012, so such result probably means just a four year reprieve of Trumpism not end of it. By contrast, my hope is a landslide where Biden gets over 400 electoral votes and wins Texas. A defeat of that magnitude would force GOP into a major reckoning. The anti-Trump side would have the upper hand and party would likely move away from Trumpism. And as much as I want Biden to win, a healthy democracy needs a healthy opposition who can win if the party in power gets too arrogant or messes up.
For house, I am hoping Democrats win enough seats that they can afford to lose 40 in midterms as midterms are rarely good for incumbents so that is enough of a cushion to allow Biden to take his time on his agenda and have full four years, not have to rush. Off course with redrawing of districts, I expect boundaries if Democrats take enough state legislatures to be more friendly and not so heavily gerrymandered in GOP’s favour.
For senate, my hope is Democrats win 52 seats to GOP’s 48. Reason for this is midterms again are rarely friendly to incumbents, but in 2022, Democrats have a very favourable map. With 52 that is enough they should at worst lose 2 seats if things go badly while if Biden does a good job may even expand it. And with all the challenges ahead, if he expands it, he will have earned it. Reason I favour 52 and not bigger one is to ensure Biden sticks close to the centre. A landslide would mean the more left wing elements would have greater sway whereas with only 52, he will have no choice but to be moderate or risk some of his own senators voting against him.
For state legislatures and governors, I am hoping Democrats make gains in key swing states. At very least I hope they can get rid of GOP trifectas so that will ensure when boundaries are redrawn, they aren’t heavily gerrymandered in favour of the GOP. By same token I hope Democrats here do the right thing and have an independent commission draw up boundaries. Politicians drawing boundaries is a conflict of interest and needs to end. Canada and UK have independent commissions draw boundaries and that is how it should be.
Finally for ballot questions, I am largely indifferent here on most, although I do hope ones that call for legalizing marijuana pass. I have never smoked marijuana and don’t plan to. I actually cannot stand it. But reality is war on drugs has failed so better to regulate and tax it then have it run by black market. Many otherwise good upstanding citizens have criminal records thanks to past marijuana use thus limiting their ability to get jobs which is harmful to the economy. It is no more harmful than alcohol and tobacco so while I support legalization, I do support it remaining a criminal offence to sell without a licence; otherwise only licenced dispensaries. And I think local communities should have right to decide location and limit outlets of dispensaries. In addition I support not only having legal age at 21, but very strict penalties for anyone caught providing marijuana to those under 21. Even here in Canada where 19, I think that is too young as brain doesn’t fully develop until 25, so as medical community here recommended, 21 is the logical choice. Luckily all ballot questions call for this. If it called for legalization without proper rules, I would not support it, but none do and doubt anyone would be dumb enough to put such question on the ballot.